I never thought I’d write these words, but I started looking into the XFL, and it turned into a full season prediction column.
I can’t promise it will be a regular thing – I don’t like to take unnecessary risk and anything without a history is undoubtedly a “risk” – but I do like searching for value. So search I will.
We’re all novices at trying to analyze the XFL. There are no experts and anyone who actually has an edge cannot have had more than a year’s worth of time invested in learning the league and its rosters. And that’s being generous. So, let’s strip out any belief that there is some information out there that could crack the code.
Except one. And it’s the one we always use as our guide.
We have odds to win the championship.
Of all the places that must take extra care when looking into the likelihood of a certain outcome, those who make the odds are at the top of the list. They are the only ones with something at-stake before we take our risks, and they are the ones with the most to lose. And gain. Because there will be enough of us – clearly, myself included – that wants more football and is willing to look into a league playing its first game.
If enough of us are going to try, and we have no idea where to begin other than the odds, what would be the next logical step? How would we have any idea how good one team is from the next? Simple. We’re football fans, right? Obviously big enough fans to try out the XFL. So, we should know some of the players who have migrated from the NFL. And that should give us some idea of what we think would happen.
Let’s pause right there and recognize both the probability that this approach is used and the danger in following it. Again, with no other real information at our fingertips, trying to determine a collective value of a given roster is the only possible way to look into this upcoming season. Which, by virtue of being largely subjective, means that it is dangerous. And probably wrong.
If I were in charge of making the odds, and I knew slightly more than the casual XFL fans – again, something we all are – then I would actively try to exploit this disconnect. Which means that I would pick the team with the most recognizable names that was also not likely to win the championship and give said team better odds. Why? Because the general XFL fan will look at the good odds and the familiar name and conclude that said team is probably the ‘right pick.’ Which, to us, means that it is wrong.
According to the odds, three teams are extreme longshots, two are almost identical favorites, and a group of three sit somewhere in the middle. Starting with the two favorites – the Dallas Renegades and New York Guardians – it’s also possible that we have some name value impacting the odds. ‘New York’ and ‘Los Angeles’ – the latter having the third-best odds – are obviously two of the biggest markets. I have to question if their odds are inflated because of the number of people who might blindly pick them for their team’s location.
Looking first at the Dallas Renegades as the team with the best odds, I’m inspired by the lack of names that jump off-the-screen. The only exceptions are quarterback Landry Jones and head coach Bob Stoops. But, Jones is out with a knee injury. Therefore, is Dallas favored for a reason or are people not even aware of Jones’ status? If the former is true, then the Renegades might have the best collection of talent that we would not have otherwise known.
One quick look at the New York Guardians’ roster confirms what I suspected. There are a few more names that catch my attention than I saw on the Renegades. Here, we have head coach Kevin Gilbride, quarterback Matt McGloin, and Joe Horn at wide receiver. Of course, he’s not the Joe Horn enshrined in the New Orleans Saints’ Hall of Fame, but he is that Joe Horn’s son. By that, alone, he is name that would steal attention.
Los Angeles also falls victim to name value, as the Wildcats have arguably the most commonly known quarterback in Josh Johnson. The huge key to note here is that Johnson was formerly the first overall pick in the now-defunct AAF quarterback draft. He eventually returned to the NFL before being assigned to the Wildcats. His longstanding role as a backup for multiple NFL teams will boost his new squad’s perception. Probably too much.
The DC Defenders not only have a recognizable name at quarterback – Cardale Jones – but also had the first overall pick in the ‘Skill Players’ phase of the draft. Those two, alone, probably create too much of a narrative for my liking.
The fifth and final team with realistic odds that I would consider is the Tampa Bay Vipers, and they separate from the pack for exactly the reasons I didn’t want to see elsewhere. That is, the quarterback has no NFL experience – on-field, anyway – but has played in the AAF. Granted, Aaron Murray wasn’t great, but he is leading a team with the fourth-best odds to win the title. Tampa Bay does suffer from some name value hype with wide receiver Antonio Callaway, but we should actually hope that he overshadows the true potential gem of the draft. Apparently – and I can only base this on research conducted for this column – the Vipers nabbed the top tight end in the draft in Nick Truesdell. Another tight end didn’t go off-the-board until the fourth round. Maybe Tampa Bay has something.
Finally, I’ll take one longshot, and only because I stumbled upon it via a backwards route while researching a different quarterback. The Seattle Dragons were assigned quarterback Brandon Silvers and he most recently played in the AAF. In two starts, Silvers threw for nearly 800 yards, four touchdowns, and had two interceptions. Quietly, that might be one of the best resumes for a quarterback in this league.
As I give my actual picks for this upcoming season – and I assume that it lasts long enough for these to count – I should mention the most valuable part of this exercise. One of the favorites to win the championship will lose in Week 1. That will probably cause a massive overreaction in Week 2 in which the team may even be an underdog. If that happens, I’m pouncing. Pay attention and watch for it.
Mario’s Picks for the 2020 XFL Championship (Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Dallas Renegades (+350)
Tampa Bay Vipers (+550)
Seattle Dragons (+1200) (0.5 Units)
XFL Week 1 Picks (Odds Courtesy of Sugarhouse Sportsbook)
Note: Again, I am not committing to giving these weekly, as I simply don’t trust the lack of data, but these work with the premise laid out above:
Seattle Dragons +6.5
Los Angeles Wildcats + 3.5
Tampa Bay Vipers -2.5
Dallas Renegades -7