Wild Card Weekend 2021-2022 Betting Guide
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Huge shout out to the Raiders last week as they had us at @Sporfolio as they swept the night going 3-0 (+5.80 units) on the night, and ended the season positive going +3.97 units on the regular season. To put that in some sort of perspective a $100 bettor would be up $580 on the regular season if you followed our Sunday Night Football plays. This week we look forward to not just one game but the whole slate of games in Super Wild Card Weekend as I will break down a best bet from a majority of the slate for the weekend.
As always, make sure you follow Mario’s ATS Plays for the weekend as well.
NOTE: This article has been updated to include all of the games for the weekend.
Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
Weather: 29 degrees, 9-10 MPH winds, 2% chance of precipitation
4:30 P.M. EST; TV: NBC
The Raiders last week gave us a thriller, almost costing SportsBooks millions in a potential tie against the Chargers, but the Raiders shocked the world kicking the field goal for the win. The Bengals are unfortunately not the Chargers as they are better in all aspects of the ball. Value is slowly moving away from the Raiders in terms on the spread as they lost a point and half but I still do think they keep the game close enough 5 would be the basement in terms of how I would play them. If it climbs back up before kickoff grab them as I did once the line opened at 6.5. Some books are offering 5.5 and that is still a good number but it’s all about getting that “key” number. In terms of O/U the line has stayed in place for the most part and seems to have settled at 48. There seems to be some value in the Raiders as about 40% of the money is coming in on them and they are 5-3 on the road this season but I don’t see the value as they go against a team that rested up to get healthy and still almost beat the Browns a week ago.
THE PLAY: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +5
New England Patriots (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-7)
Weather: 3 degrees, 5-6 MPH winds, 0% chance of precipitation
8:15 P.M. EST; TV: CBS
Third time’s a charm as these two division rivals meet again in what appears to be a not so windy day in Orchard Park. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Bills who need to win this game. The spread hasn’t moved much as it opened and currently sits at 4.5. The money line has moved and it has moved away from the Patriots as it opened at +165, and currently sits at +185. I can’t tell you the last time a Bill Belichick team has lost on Wild Card Weekend, mainly because 1) They don’t and 2) they typically get the bye. I truly love not only the value of New England in this game but beside that Belichick knows how to make adjustments. They will go back to the game plan that helped them win the first go around at Buffalo. The O/U also hasn’t moved much currently at 44 after opening at 43.5. The wind won’t play as much of a factor but this will be a game where it will be won on the ground with a few passes thrown in here and there.
THE PLAY: NEW ENGLAND MONEY LINE +185
Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
Weather: 64 degrees, 24-25 MPH winds, 10% chance of precipitation
1 P.M. EST; TV: FOX
Last week the Eagles didn’t even show up against the Cowboys with little to nothing to play for with both teams, but to get embarrassed that bad is alarming. Tampa Tom is ready for yet another Super Bowl run. The line opened at 7.5, and has since moved a point to 8.5 as everyones still expects the banged up Buccaneers to win easily. The only shot — and it’s a good one — is if the Eagles can control the clock and run the ball and keep Brady off the field, but sometimes that is easier said than can be done. Money still keeps coming on the Buccaneers as they are now -400 on the line after opening at -330. The total has moved down two points falling from 48 to 46. Not much value on the Eagles as I don’t see they don’t stand much against the Buccaneers. The total is somewhat intriguing but I don’t think the Eagles will be able to add much to help push it to the over, as the drop in two points is important. I will go the hopefully “safer” route and take the Buccaneers and give the points.
THE PLAY: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -8.5, -110
San Francisco 49ers (10-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Weather: Dome
4:30 P.M. EST; TV: CBS
All week I have been wrestling with this game trying to wrap my head around are the Cowboys really good or just fortunate? I’m going with the latter and saying they are fortunate as they only beat two teams this year that made the playoffs. They did take care of business beating up on the lesser teams as they should have but they will go against a team that is very good defensively and loves to grind it out offensively and honestly that type of football wins games in January. The spread and ML hasn’t moved much, only moving a half a point and the ML only going from SF +128 to +145 so the money has been even. The same is also true with the totals as it’s been a steady 50/50.5 since it has opened.
THE PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ML +145, SAN FRANCISCO 49ers +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) @ Kansans City Chiefs (12-5)
Weather: 34 degrees, 5-6 MPH winds, 0% chance of precipitation
8:15 P.M. EST; TV: NBC
“Let’s just have fun!” Those were the words of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberge this week, and sometimes it’s the teams that don’t deserve to be where they are and playing loosely is a threat to a team. The Steelers were legit 2 seconds away from watching the Chargers be in this spot. Originally I could careless but when I saw JuJu Smith-Schuster will be active for this game I did a 180 as he gives the Steelers a legitimate deep threat they haven’t had all year and another option for a Chiefs defense that has been suspect all year. There is a lot of value on the Steelers ML at +525, but I’m playing it safe and taking the points as they, like the 49ers, like to just grind out games by running the ball and checking down to safe high percentage plays.
THE PLAY: PITTSBURGH STEELERS, +12.5, -110
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Weather: 59 degrees, Dome
8:15 P.M. EST; TV: ESPN
Just like New England / Buffalo two rivals meet for a third time after splitting the regular season matchups (each won by the road team) in a rubber match to see who moves on to likely go to Green Bay and face the Packers. Line movement seems to be favoring the Rams as it has opened at 3 and now sits at 4 at a majority of sportsbooks. The total has dropped drastically, opening at 52.5 and now is at 49.5 (dropping 3 points). The Cardinals are currently +166 underdogs but something about them just doesn’t intrigue me. No help is in sight as star wideout DeAndre Hopkins is not likely to return this week for the Cardinals. The only trend I do like is that the Cardinals have played very well on the road (8-1; the Rams 5-3 at home) but they have won only one game over the course of the last five beating Dallas (on the road). Both these teams have the potential to light up the scoreboard and with the game being in a controlled environment weather won’t play a factor and the line dropping will play in our favor in this one.
THE PLAY: OVER 49.5 -110
Week 18 LAC @ LV
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: RAIDERS +140 WIN
O/U: OVER 49, -110 WIN
Bonus Play: RAIDERS TO WIN BY 1-6 +350 WIN
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 3-5-0 (-0.20 Units)
Over / Under: 4-6-1 (-2.40 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-1-0 (+7.57 Units)
Overall: 11-13-1 (+3.97 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)