Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 9: Tennessee Titans (6-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-1)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
After two positive weeks, we fell back a little bit as the backup quarterbacks had a strong week with Mike White, Trevor Semion and of course, Cooper Rush all picking up wins for their respective teams. This week we have already seen Mike White / Josh Johnson, likely will see Semion again and Jordan Love, but this week’s matchup will give us a different injury to worry about as All-Pro running back Derrick Henry will be out for the remainder of the season for the Titans. Will Jeremy McNichols play hero this week? Only time will tell.
Sunday Night Football
Tennessee (6-2, 1st Place in the AFC South) @ Los Angeles (7-1, 2nd Place in the NFC West)
Weather: (Dome)
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of November 4th @ 8:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Titans (+7, -110) @ Rams (-7, -110)
2021 TEN 6-2-0 ATS
2001 LAR 4-4-0 ATS
Over the past 11 seasons these two teams have met just three times twice (and most recently in Tennessee) and once in St. Louis. This will be the first time they will be meeting in L.A. Over those past three matchups the Titans have covered the spread each time, twice as a favorite and once as an underdog. The average spread has been 7 – 7.5 which is right in line with this week but normally the Titans have been the favorite. Outside of the 2019 matchup where the Titans won by 40 points the last two games have been decided by less than a touchdown.
Money Line (ML): Titans (+280) @ Rams (-335)
2021 TEN 6-2-0 (3-1 Road)
2021 LAR 7-1-0 (3-1 Home)
As mentioned above the Titans have had success over the last three matchups not only covering all three games but also have won two of those three games and have won the long game on the road in St. Louis. Lots have changed as both quarterbacks (Mariota and Goff) have moved on, and Derrick Henry was splitting time with DaMarco Murray, and Todd Gurley was a MVP candidate. A lot has changed since then.
Over 52.5 (-110) / Under 52.5 (-110)
2021 TEN OVER IS 5-3-0
2021 LAR OVER IS 5-2-1
As mentioned prior a lot has changed since these two have met, quarterbacks changing teams, teams changing cities, and running backs no longer available to their current team. The number is the highest it’s been in the past three matchups by 6.5 points (46 in 2017) normally they are playing low scoring games with the average O/U being right around 42 – 42.5 points. The OVER is 3-0 with it hitting by an average of 8.5 – 9 points.
Trends To Watch
Tennessee Titans
6-0 is the OVER in the last six games as a road underdog.
8-0 is the OVER in the last eight games on turf.
4-0 ATS in their last four games and as an underdog.
10-1 is the OVER in the last 11 road games.
Los Angeles Rams
3-0-1 is the OVER in the last four games after allowing over 250 passing yards in the previous game.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games against a team with a winning record.
0-5 ATS in the last five games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards.
0-6 ATS in the last six games following a STRAIGHT UP win of more than 14 points.
6-1-1 is the OVER in the last eight games following a STRAIGHT UP win.
Head-To-Head
Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games against the Rams.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games.
The Plays
All Odds are as of November 4th @ 8:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Titans (+7, -110) @ Rams (-7, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Titans (+280) @ Rams (-335)
When news broke that Henry would be out for the rest of the season panic rose in Tennessee. Is he valuable to the Titans? Absolutely. But it’s not like they lost their starting quarterback. The running back position can easily be a plug and play. The line opened at +170 but since the injury news it jumped to its current peek at +280. There is value on the Titans to win but if they rely heavily on Tannehill to lead them, can he do it? Absolutely, as mentioned in the open crazier things have happened recently in the league, but against a tough Rams defense, it will make them one dimensional and the Rams will be victorious.
THE PICK: Pass (Value on Titans)
Over 52.5 (-110) / Under 52.5 (-110)
I’m not quite sure how this one plays out, if the over hit it will be hammered in a high-scoring game, but if the under hits, I can see it being a blowout by the Rams winning by a score of 35-17 along those lines. With the Titans not able to control the ball like they would like to with their run game there will be lots of opportunity for Stafford to put up numbers to show why he should still be considered a MVP candidate but likely not enough to push the needle in terms of the over.
THE PICK: PASS
Bonus: Sony Michel ANYTIME Touchdown (+300)
Over the past few weeks Sony Michel has quietly split carries with “Starter” Darrell Henderson. Sony Michel thrives in Primetime as his lone touchdown this season came in a night game against the Seahawks back in the beginning of October, and he has scored six of his 16 (37.5%) career touchdowns in a night game.
Week 8 DAL @ MIN Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: Vikings -2.5 LOSS
Moneyline: Vikings -135 LOSS
O/U: PASS
Bonus Play: NONE
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-3-0 (+0.40 Units)
Over / Under: 2-2-1 (-0.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 2-0-0 (+2.07 Units)
Overall: 6-6-1 (+1.25 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)