Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 8: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Guess who’s back? Back again? Danny’s back tell a friend! Ok I’m not Slim Shady but i am back for this weeks SNF matchup between the Packers and Bills, after a week off we look to ride the second half of the season on a positive note as it is a sprint not a marathon to the end so without further adieu let’s circle the wagons this week!
Sunday Night Football – 10/30
New Era Field – Orchard Park, NY
Green Bay Packers (3-4-0) @ Buffalo Bills (5-1-0)
Weather: 52 degrees, 5-6 MPH winds, 0% chance of precipitation
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
All Odds are as of October 29th @ 10 A.M. EST via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Packers (+10.5, -110) vs Eagles (-10.5, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
2022 GB 2-5-0
2022 BUF 4-1-1
Not much history between these two teams as they met four times in the past 16 years. The spread has been split 2-2 with both teams alternating coving, along with the home team cover each time. Also the favorite has covered three of the four matchups with the lone underdog coving in 2014 with the Bills winning outright at home 21-13. The average number over the past four matchups sits right on 7, as this week’s game will mark the 2nd highest over the last four matchups with the highest being 12.5 (Packers covering -12.5). The lowest has been 3.5 (both games at Buffalo), with the Bills covering both times once as a favorite, and once as an underdog.
Money Line (ML): Packers (+390) vs Bills (-490)
2022 GB 3-4-0 (1-2-0 Away; 2-1-0 Home)
2022 BUF 4-1-1 (3-1-0 Away; 2-0-0 Home)
Checking out the Money Line of the past four matchups Green Bay has been a favorite three of those past four games, with the Bills winning the lone game as a favorite in 2006 (24-10). Each team as mentioned with the spread has also won on their home turf along with alternating wins and losses.
Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)
2022 GB 3-4-0 IN OVERS
2022 BUF 1-5-0 IN OVERS
On to the totals we go. The total has been 100% on the UNDER in the last four games, so not much to go off on as it has gone UNDER twince in Green Bay and twice in Buffalo.
The highest total was in 2014 when it was 49.5 (UNDER) with the lowest being 41 (UNDER) in 2006. The average number over the last four games is around 44 – 44.5 marking this week’s number 3 / 3.5 points lower than the average.
Trends To Watch
Green Bay Packers
0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
6-0 ATS in their last six games after gaining less than 250 total yards in their last game.
0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their last game.
0-4 ATS in their last four games in OCT.
7-1-1 is the OVER In GB last nine games on TURF.
Buffalo Bills
4-0 is the UNDER in BUF last four games.
4-0 is the UNDER in BUF last four games in OCT.
4-0 is the UNDER in BUF last four games against a team with a losing record.
0-3-1 is BUF, ATS in their last four games in WEEK 8.
2-0-2 is BUF, ATS in their last four games in OCT.
Head-To-Head
6-0 is the HOME team ATS in their last six games.
5-0 is the UNDER in the last five games.
5-1 is the FAVORITE in the last six games.
The Plays
All Odds are as of October 29th @ 10 A.M. EST via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Packers (+10.5, -110) vs Eagles (-10.5, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Packers (+390) vs Bills (-490)
The Bills are HUGE favorites this week and rightfully so as they are at home, coming off a bye week, where the Packers lost again to the Commanders, and lost their past three games, and nearly a forth narrowing escaping the Zappie Project in New England. Will the Bills win most definitely yes, Rodgers is hurting and maybe we see Jordan Love? There isn’t much to like about the Pack other than value as you never can could count out a team with Aaron Rodgers…. Can you?
The Pick: Pass, GB Value PLay +390
Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)
Both teams have great defense. We know this as they are top 10-15 in a majority of the major defensive stats. On the flip side since Roders still hasn’t been able to do much with his new look receiver core. Meanwhile on the flip side the bills have only put up more than 25 points once (38 against PIT) in the last four games. Based on how good both these two defenses are and can be, and the fact that every trend screams under we are expecting them to score 24 points each basically and that is asking alot for both teams based on how they’ve been playing lately. Let’s roll on trend and hope the defenses show up.
The Play: UNDER 47 (-110)
2022 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Over / Under: 0-4-0 (-3.00 Units)
Bonus Plays 1-0-0 (+1.15 Units)
Overall: 1-7-0 (-5.85 Units)
2021 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 5-5-0 (-0.27 Units)
Money Line: 5-6-0 (+1.50 Units)
Over / Under: 5-7-1 (-2.49 Units)
Bonus Plays 7-5-0 (+6.79 Units)
Overall: 22-23-1 (+5.53 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 21-20-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 20-19-0 (-1.87 Units)
Money Line: 12-11-0 (+7.90 Units)
Over / Under: 20-15-1 (+3.06 Units)
Bonus Plays 11-8-0 (+6.86 Units)
Overall: 63-53-1 (+15.95 Units)