Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 8: Dallas Cowboys (5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-3)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
In what turned out to be a wash — pun intended — of a game the Colts took care of business on the road. I wish I could highlight something good in this game but it was doomed from the start with the weather, but in the end Wentz and the Colts pulled out the upset giving us now two back to back positive weeks — jinx is on for a letdown week. This week the first place Cowboys travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings.
Sunday Night Football
Dallas (5-1, 1st Place in the NFC East) @ Minnesota (3-3, 2nd Place in the NFC North)
Weather: (Dome)
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of October 28th @ 8 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Cowboys (+2.5, -105) @ Vikings (-2.5, -115)
2021 DAL 6-0-0 ATS
2001 MIN 3-3-0 ATS
Finally a game with some recent history. These two have met seven times in the past 14 years, so not that much but this is now the third time in as many years and the fourth time in five years. Last year’s number is a tad skewed (+7) as Dak Prescott was already out with injury but Andy Dalton held his own as Dallas won outright, but other than that the Vikings have covered 5 of the past 6 matchups prior to that with Dallas failing to cover going back to 2007. In terms of who has the edge — favorite or underdog — it is fairly even with the underdog winning the last four matchups. Dallas has been underdogs three times failing to cover twice with last year being the only time they have covered. This is the forth time they are playing in Minnesota over the 14 seasons and this will be the third time they are underdogs. On average the spread has been around 5 – 5.5 points in favor of Dallas as they have been favored in four of the seven recent matchups.
Money Line (ML): Cowboys (+115) @ Vikings (-135)
2021 DAL 5-1 (2-1 Road)
2021 MIN 3-3 (2-1 Home)
Kirk Cousins has been a mainstay under center for Minnesota for a while now, but this will be his third game against the Cowboys in as many years, for Dak it will be his third as well but in four years — missing last year. Both quarterbacks are 1-1 with this being the rubber match so to speak as I’m sure they will face off more times after this weekend. Dallas has won four of seven, winning as recently as last season — along with back in 2016, 2013 and 2007 back in the Tony Romo Era. Recently the home team hasn’t had much luck as they have lost three of the last seven, with two of those games being in Minnesota.
Over 53.5 (-110) / Under 53.5 (-110)
2021 DAL OVER IS 5-1-1
2021 MIN OVER IS 3-3-0
When these two teams have meet prior to Dak / Kirk as their respective quarterbacks the UNDER has been an overwhelming 1-4. Since then the OVER has been 2-0 (though Dak didn’t play last year). Overall the OVER is 3-4 and the average number has been right around 46.5 – 47 points in the past seven matchups. When the UNDER does hit, though, it hits with a big margin as it has hit three of the four times by a touchdown or more, where the OVER has hit by a touchdown or more just once — last season. This week will mark a new high in terms of O/U as it will be over 50 for the first time since 2013.
Trends To Watch
Dallas Cowboys
4-0 is the OVER in the Cowboys last four games
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games gaining 350+ total yards in their last game
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games following an ATS cover.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games following a win.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games on TURF.
Minnesota Vikings
5-0 is the OVER in the last five games following a bye.
0-5 ATS in the last five games as home favorites.
1-9 ATS in the last 10 games on TURF.
1-7 ATS in the last eight games as a favorite.
1-6 ATS in the last seven home games.
Head-To-Head
4-0 is the underdog ATS in the last four matchups.
1-5 are the Cowboys ATS in the last six games in Minnesota and 1-5 Overall.
The Plays
All Odds are as of October 28th @ 8PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Cowboys (+2.5, -105) @ Vikings (-2.5, -115) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Normally I don’t give my plays in terms of ATS picks — I leave that to Mario — but I feel I must add my two cents this week. I can not stress this enough but PLEASE use judgement when making picks when following us. While I mention that I would grab +2.5 or anything for Dallas as Dak’s injury is still up in the air. If you have a feeling he might play, that’s a steal. I feel like this line is in favor of him not playing as Dallas is better than Minnesota in every aspect. Without Dak the Cowboys will become one dimensional and use Ezekiel Elliott as a focal point out of the backfield and rushing, and that will only go so far.
CONDITIONAL PICK: Cowboys +2.5 (If Dak plays)
CONDITIONAL PICK: Vikings -2.5 (If Dak doesn’t play)
Money Line (ML): Cowboys (+115) @ Vikings (-135)
Showing my hand by the above ATS plays, I will mention it again Dallas is the better team in all aspects. The huge question mark is Dak, as he is “Probable” but just a matter if Dallas will let him play. Again my play depends all on that. If Dak is in, then go Dallas, if not, I’m laying the juice with the Vikings.
CONDITIONAL PICK: Cowboys +115 (If Dak plays)
CONDITIONAL PICK: Vikings -135 (If Dak doesn’t play)
Over 53.5 (-110) / Under 53.5 (-110)
This number is a strange one to me. Last year with Dalton under center the O/U was 49.5. This year its 4 points higher with the status of Dak still not clear. By no means will Cooper Rush (Who?!?) or Will Grier be able to put up points against the Vikings if they are called upon. We saw how bad the offence was with Ben DiNucci was last year, and if the backup is needed it will be Vikings all day to try and nail the over.
THE PICK: PASS
Bonus: NONE
*Disclaimer: I can not stress enough how much the Dak status means to this week’s picks please make sure you are aware if he is or isn’t playing this week. We will do our best to update you once more information is released.
Week 7 IND @ SF Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: COLTS +170 WIN
O/U: PASS
Bonus Play: NONE
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 2-2-0 (+1.40 Units)
Over / Under: 2-2-1 (-0.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 2-0-0 (+2.07 Units)
Overall: 6-4-1 (+3.25 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)