Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 7: Indianapolis Colts (2-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Well, we shockingly had a game (2nd half anyway) last week as the Steelers picked up the W in OT after blowing a 14-0 lead, winning 23-20. Great for the bonus play, but a rough way to push the O/U, but pushing is winning as I always say as we didn’t lose. This week brings the Colts to California to take on the 9ers. Also, Jimmy Garoppolo is probable and Quinton Nelson is questionable for Sunday’s contest.
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis (2-4, 2nd in the AFC South) @ San Francisco (2-3, 3rd in the NFC West)
75% Chance of Rain with a high of 64F 18-19 MPH Winds
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of October 21th @ 8 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Colts (+4.5, -115) @ 49ers (-4.5, -110)
2021 IND 4-2-0 ATS
2001 SF 1-4-0 ATS
Not much history between the two teams as they have only met 3 times over the course of the past 11 years. Their last meeting was back in 2017 with the Colts winning and covering (-1.0) 26-23, and have covered two of the last three. The last time the Colts played in California they won easily covering +10.5, by winning straight up 27-7. The last time the 49ers covered was in 2009 losing 18-14 but covered +13.0. On average the spread has been about 8-8.5 points in favor of the Colts, and they have won by an average of 9 points but, now the shoe is on the other foot as San Fran is the team that is favored for the second time in four matchups.
Money Line (ML): Colts (+170) @ 49ers (-200)
2021 IND 2-4 (1-2 Road)
2021 SF 2-3 (0-2 Home)
Manning, Luck, and Brissett have been the quarterbacks we have seen under center for the Colts the last three matchups. On San Francisco’s side it has been just as inconsistent with it being A. Smith, Hoyer, and Kaepernick again not too consistent. Now enter Wentz along with Jimmy G and / or Trey Lance and we have seen 9 different QB’s in just 4 games between the two. The Colts are 3-0 winning just one on the road (2013) in the last three games.
Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-100)
2021 IND OVER IS 3-3-0
2021 SF OVER IS 2-3-0
Ironically the average of the past three games has been 44.5 roughly. This week’s number is on par for the trend in which the past matchups have shook out. 45.5 (2013) has been the high with 43.5 being the low (2017 and Sunday). The UNDER has been 2-1 and when it hits it hits by a big margin on average of 12-12.5 points. The lone time the OVER hit was the last time the total was at 43.5 back in 2017, going over by 5.5 points.
Trends To Watch
Indianapolis Colts
4-0 is the OVER AND ATS in the last four games allowing 350+ total yards in the previous game.
5-0 ATS in the last five games AND 8-1 is the OVER in the last nine games when gaining 350+ total yards in the previous game.
5-1 in the last six games on grass.
San Francisco 49ers
4-0 is the UNDER in the last four games following a ATS loss.
5-0 is the UNDER in the last five games following a bye.
4-0 is the UNDER in the last four games in October.
7-1 is the OVER in the last eight games when rushing for 150 yards in the last game.
6-1 is the UNDER in the last seven games when following a Straight Up Loss.
Head-To-Head
4-1 is the ROAD team in the last five matchups.
The Plays
All Odds are as of October 21th @ 8 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Colts (+4.5, -115) @ 49ers (-4.5, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Colts (+170) @ 49ers (-200)
With or without “heartthrob” Jimmy G. by no means are the 49ers this much of a favorite against the Colts. Wentz has proven he can stay healthy (the jinx is on) and can hold his own against the NFL’s best losing to both the Ravens and Rams by less than a touchdown. Based on pure value alone the Colts are worth the play and can be seen as high as +185 on FanDuel.
THE PICK: COLTS +170
Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-100)
I’m not sure what to expect this one in terms of points. If Trey Lance starts I would lean UNDER, but it’s still unknown with Garoppolo as Probable. We all know what we are getting with Wentz as he has been playing well as of late 7 TD / 1 INT in the last five games. Both teams have the defense also to keep the score low but have allowed a bunch of backdoor OVERS to hit (IND 2 / SF 1). If this creeps up to say 45 which is very unlikely i would stay away.
THE PICK: PASS
Bonus: NONE
Week 6 SEA @ PIT Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: PASS
O/U: OVER 43 – PUSH
Bonus Play: N. Harris (ANY TIME TD) + PIT ML +120 WIN
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 1-2-0 (-0.30 Units)
Over / Under: 2-2-1 (-0.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 2-0-0 (+2.07 Units)
Overall: 5-4-1 (+1.55 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)