Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 6: Seattle Seahawks (2-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers(2-3)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Back again as we split last week’s Bills / Chiefs Match-Up. The over cashed (O56, -110) while Maholmes just couldn’t figure out the Bills’ defense and the ML failed (KC -145). Maybe the Bills are legit but that’s a conversation for a different day. Up this week we have two winning franchises sitting at 2-3 looking to fix the early season struggles as the Seahawks travel east to face the Steelers.
Sunday Night Football
Seattle (2-3, 3rd in the NFC West) @ Pittsburgh (2-3, 4th in the AFC North)
Cloudy with a high of 53F 7-8 MPH Winds
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of October 15th @ 9:30 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Seahawks (+5.5, -110) @ Steelers (-5.5, -110)
2021 SEA 2-3-0 ATS
2001 PIT 2-3-0 ATS
These two teams haven’t met much over the years. In fact, they only met four times in the last 14 years, splitting the ATS numbers with two wins each. Seattle has won the last two games and covered, with the Steelers winning the two previous. Of course, we all know we aren’t getting the Russell Wilson / Ben Rothisburger match-up we hoped for so instead we get Geno Smith, who moved the line all on his own as the line originally was PIT -3.5, to now PIT -5.5. This is the 3rd time Seattle will be an underdog in the past four matchups with the lone win coming in 2019 (28-26, +4) as they won straight up.
Money Line (ML): Seahawks (+190) @ Steelers (-235)
2021 SEA 2-3-0 (2-1 Road)
2021 PIT 2-3-0 (1-2 Home)
Just like the ATS numbers, the money line is just as balanced with both teams winning two games each. Seattle has not won a game in Pittsburgh since 2007 and in three games there they only managed to score 9.3 points per game (two shutouts in three games). Of course, it’s not the same Seahawks team but with Geno at QB we don’t know what to expect. Seattle is currently on a two-game winning streak against the Steelers.
Over 43 (-105) / Under 43 (-115)
2021 SEA OVER IS 1-4-0
2021 PIT OVER IS 1-4-0
In typical fashion, the under is less than 50 points when these two meet. The highest it has been was in 2019 when it reached 47. The O/U only moved a half-point higher since opening with the QB change, so Vegas is expecting Seattle to still lose but expects Geno to still be able to put up points against this great Steeler D. The O/U is also split as it is 2-2-0 with the two unders coming in 2007 and 2011 when they blanked the Seahawks, and the two overs coming in 2015 and 2019. The under is 2-1 when they play in Pittsburgh, and the average O/U in the four games has been about 43.5.
Trends To Watch
Seattle Seahawks
7-0 is the UNDER in the last seven games after allowing 250+ passing yards in their last game.
5-0 is the UNDER in the last five games following a SU Loss.
0-4 ATS in the last four games against a team with a losing record.
7-1 is the UNDER in the last eight games following an ATS loss.
6-1 is the UNDER in the last seven games in the month of October.
Pittsburgh Steelers
8-0 is the UNDER in the last eight games played in Week 6.
0-6 ATS in the last six games as a favorite.
0-5 ATS in the last five games as a HOME favorite.
4-0 ATS in the last four games played in Week 6.
7-1-1 is the UNDER in the last nine home games against a team with a record under .500%
Head-To-Head
5-1 is the FAVORITE in the last 6 games ATS
5-1 is the HOME team in the last six games ATS
The Plays
All Odds are as of October 15th @ 9:30 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Seahawks (+5.5, -110) @ Steelers (-5.5, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Seahawks (+190) @ Steelers (-235)
No way am I putting my faith in Geno Smith, especially against this defense, on the road, on Sunday Night Football, in his first start since he was with the Jets. The Seahawks were struggling with an MVP Quarterback, I don’t see how they won’t struggle with a backup. The Steelers make the pick an easy one as they should easily win this game. Look to parlay them with something else to get good value in both plays to get plus money play out of it (see bonus play).
THE PICK: PASS (See Bonus Play)
Over 43 (-105) / Under 43 (-115)
History shows that Seattle doesn’t play well when they travel to Pittsburgh as mentioned before they have been shut out twice in the past three meetings there. Combine that with a huge downgrade in quarterback I can’t see how Geno Smith can put up 17 points on the Steelers defense, and for this over to hit he is going to need to do at least that and I just don’t see it happening. On the flip side, we know Tomlin when he has a big lead likes to run the clock and not run up a score, so when this game is 14+ in favor of the Steelers late expect just that as they won’t be passing the ball eventually.
THE PICK: UNDER 43 (-115)
Bonus: Najee Harris to score (ANY TIME) + Steelers ML +120
Najee Harris is finally starting to show what he is capable of in the NFL after last week’s 122 yards rushing (1 TD) and 2 Rec 20 Yards. He will also become a more focal point in the passing game as well as he was 2nd last year in targets (5) to just Chase Claypool (6). This play is a nice way to parlay the PIT ML as laying the -225 is way too much as backup QB Geno Smith will be slinging the ball.
Week 5 BUF @ KC Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: KC ML Loss
O/U: OVER 56 Win
Bonus Play: None
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 1-2-0 (-0.30 Units)
Over / Under: 2-2-0 (-0.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 1-0-0 (+0.87 Units)
Overall: 4-4-0 (+0.35 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)