Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 5: Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Talk about a jinx. We mentioned we were riding high, then came back to earth with a 0-2 week as the rain slowed down Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, and a missed field goal that doinked off the upright cost us the Patriots ML last week. We look to rebound this week as the Bills look to circle the wagons in Arrowhead against the Chiefs.
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City (2-2, 4th in the AFC West) @ Buffalo (3-1, 1st in the AFC East)
Cloudy with a high of 72F 54-5 MPH Winds
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of October 8th @ 9:30 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Bills (+3, -115) @ Chiefs (-3, -105)
2021 BUF 3-1-0 ATS
2001 KC 2-2-0 ATS
Over the last 18 years, the Bills and Chiefs have only met 10 times — nine in the regular season, one in the postseason, and six in Kansas City — with the latest coming last year in the AFC Championship Game with the Chiefs beating the Bills by 14 (-3 spread) victory to head to the Super Bowl. Of the 10 past matchups, the Chiefs have been favorites a whopping 8 times and never have been a home underdog. The Bills have covered their fair share of games in Arrowhead as they have covered 5 of 7 with their last cover back in 2017 in KC (16-10, BUF +8.5) The average spread between the two teams is 4 – 4.5 in favor of KC, with the highest spread being BUF 8.5 in 2017, and the lowest of BUF -1 in 2009 both games the Bills also won and covered, Ironically by the same score as well.
Money Line (ML): Bills (+125) @ Chiefs (-145)
2021 BUF 3-1-0 (1-0 Road)
2021 KC 2-2-0 (1-1 Home)
When it comes to playing straight up the Chiefs are 6-4 against the Bills, and are only 3-3 at home in those games. The Bills most certainly can hold their own against them with their last win coming in 2017 in KC, but they have lost 5 of the last 6 matchups and 1-2 since Maholmes has been the Quarterback in Chiefs Kingdom.
Over 56 (-110) / Under 56 (-110)
2021 BUF OVER IS 1-3-0
2021 KC OVER IS 3-1-0
When you think of these two teams matching up typically you think of a high-scoring affair the way each team can move the ball, but during the Allen / Maholmes era the over has only hit once, and that was in the AFC Title game last year. The past 2 matchups both have gone under, and the UNDER is 6-4 over the past 10 matchups. In the last six matchups in Kansas City, the over has gone 3-3 and is 1-1 with both these high-profile quarterbacks squaring off. The average total when they have met has been 44.5 – 45 points. A majority of that total has been on the lower side as only twice before this weekend has the total been above 50+ points.
Trends To Watch
Buffalo Bills
5-0 is the OVER in the last five games after getting 350 or more total yards in their last game.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games after giving up 15 points or less in their last game.
5-0 is the OVER in the last five games giving up 250 or less yards in their last game.
5-0 is the OVER in the last five games as an underdog.
7-0 ATS in their last seven games when rushing for 150+ yards in their last game.
Kansas City Chiefs
0-4 ATS in the last four games after scoring 30+ points in their last game.
1-8 ATS in the last nine games against the AFC.
1-7 ATS in the last eight home games.
1-6 ATS in the last seven home games as a favorite.
2-11 ATS in the last 13 games on grass.
Head-To-Head
Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 matchups.
Favorites are 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups.
Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games in Kansas City.
The Plays
All Odds are as of October 8th @ 9:30 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Bills (+3, -115) @ Chiefs (-3, -105) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Bills (+125) @ Chiefs (-145)
Steelers (Loss), Dolphins, Redskins, and Texans (Wins). that is who the Bills have played so far this year. The biggest shock of that list is that they are somehow not 4-0 as they lost to what now appears to be a bad Steelers team in Week 1 at home. This will be the first true test for Bills Mafia as they go into a hostile environment in Arrowhead at night. Josh Allen hasn’t been this MVP player everyone thought he would be this season, only throwing for about 260 yards and 2 touchdowns a game. Meanwhile, Maholmes continues to prove why he is one of the elite talents in the league with just over 300 yards passing and 3.5 touchdowns a game so far this season. It’s as simple as this: Maholmes + Home Field + Primetime = Victory. #ChiefsKingdom
THE PICK: Chiefs -145
Over 56 (-110) / Under 56 (-110)
The Bills’ defense has to show some sort of regression, right? 4 games in and already TWO shutout victories is impressive, but as mentioned above look who they beat…a Tua-less Dolphin team, and a Texans Team that barely put up 100 yards all game with a rookie QB that no one has heard of. But we all have heard of Sir Patrick Maholmes. The Chiefs’ defense is still suspect as they give up almost 29 points a game this season. While the Bills have only given up 9! Again that number is bound to change and Maholmes will do what he does best and that’s light up the scoreboard. In a fun-filled back and forth game where we will see one punt at best KC wins 45-33.
THE PICK: Over 56 (-110)
Bonus: None
Week 4 TB @ NE Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: NE ML Loss
O/U: OVER 49 Loss
Bonus Play: None
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 1-1-0 (+0.70 Units)
Over / Under: 1-2-0 (-1.13 Units)
Bonus Plays 1-0-0 (+0.87 Units)
Overall: 3-3-0 (+0.44 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)