Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 4: Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
All right we are back this week with Maholmes and the Chiefs taking on Brady and the Bucs. A few years ago one would say this would be a match up to see, but with the way Brady has been playing these past few weeks (673 Passing Yards / 3 TD / 1 INT / FUM) one would say Brady is starting to finally show his age, but time will indeed tell as he looks to avoid back to back home losses in a very very long time as these two team meet for the first time since the Super Bowl in 2021.
Sunday Night Football – 9/18
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa Bay
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1-0)
Weather: 69 degrees, 5-6 MPH winds, 0% chance of precipitation
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
All Odds are as of October 1st @ 11 A.M. EST via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Chiefs (+1, -110) vs Buccaneers (-1, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
2022 KC 1-2-0
2022 TB 2-1-0
Not a lot to go off of when it comes to these two teams as they met only 5 times in the past 14 years. Over those five games (one being in the Super Bowl) the Bucs have covered the spread four of those five games (three times as an underdog), while Kansas City has only covered once (as an underdog). This will be the sixth time they meet (three times in TB and Twice in KC) with the Chiefs covering only once (2020) on the road. Kansas City’s lone cover was in 2008 at home (+9.5 in Overtime) Of the five matchups the average spread has been around 5.5 points, with the highest being 9.5 (Chiefs covered in 2008) and the lowest being 3(in the Super Bowl TB Covered 31-9, and 3.5 in the regular season with TB also covering by half a point.
Money Line (ML): Chiefs (-105) vs Buccaneers (-115)
2022 KC 2-1-0 (1-1-0 Away; 1-0-0 Home)
2022 TB 2-1-0 (2-0-0 Away; 0-1-0 Home)
Checking out the Money Line of the past five matchups the Bucs have been an underdog the last three games, with there two lone games as a favorite back in 2012 & 2008 (TB won both games). The other games Kansas City has been favorites but has only one once in 2020 (In TB) and have only once once in the last five matchups. The road team has won three of the last five matchups with TB winning the last regular season game in 2012 and the only home team to win over the last five matchups.
Over 45.5 (-110) / Under 45.5 (-110)
2022 KC 1-2-0 IN OVERS
2022 TB 0-3-0 IN OVERS
On to the totals. The total has been basically 50/50 with the O/U going under 3-2 over the last five games, and shockingly enough since Brady and Maholmes have gone under each of the two matchups they have played in with Brady in a Tampa Bay uniform. The total has gone under the last three games, with the over the last two over the last five games. The highest total awas in 2020 when it was 56 (UNDER) with the lowest being 36.5 (UNDER) in 2008. The average number over the last five games is around 46-46.5 right around this week’s total by 1 point.
Trends To Watch
Kansas City Chiefs
5-1 Is the OVER in KC last six ROAD games.
4-1 is KC, ATS in their last five games in WEEK FOUR.
6-2 is the UNDER in KC last eight games following a SU LOSS.
12-4-1 is the OVER in KC last 17 games in WEEK 4.
6-2 is KC in the last eight games on GRASS.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-0 is the UNDER in TB last seven games following a SU LOSS.
4-0 is TB, ATS in their last four games following an ATS LOSS.
4-0-1 is TB, ATS in their last five games when scoring less than 15 points.
1-6 is TB, ATS in their last seven games in WEEK 4.
5-1 is the UNDER in TB’s last six games following an ATS LOSS.
Head-To-Head
KC is 0-4 ATS in the last four games in TB.
KC is 0-4 ATS in the last four games against TB.
5-1 is the UNDERDOG, ATS in the last six games.
5-1 is the HOME TEAM, ATS in the last six games.
The Plays
All Odds are as of October 1st @ 11 A.M. EST via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Chiefs (+1, -110) vs Buccaneers (-1, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Chiefs (-105) vs Buccaneers (-115)
This might be one of the easiest plays for me of the week, with last week being such an up in the air type week, this week offers a sense of normalcy. Brady is getting Mike Evans back this week (more on the below) but we just saw the Chiefs struggle on the road against the wait for it…. The Colts, Mahomes is going to get a wake up call as the Bucs are the not Colts and that defense will remain on of the top of the league as Brady and his bunch will figure it out and go off this week and cash the ML.
The Pick: Buccaneers (-115)
Over 45.5 (-110) / Under 45.5 (-110)
I know i mentioned Brady will go off tonight, but say he tosses 4 touchdowns to four different receivers that is 28 points, and that means the Chiefs need to score at least 18 points for the over to hit, thats 4 more points that the Bucs defense has given up in a game so far this year, and that’s 9 points more than their average they have given up on the year. Trends also show that the UNDER (3 trends) does hit more than the OVER (2 trends) as well. So lets fire the cannons and take that under!
The Play: Under 45.5 (-110)
Bonus Play: Mike Evans Any time TD +115
If this play was at minus money I would avoid it but with a “off” week Evans looks to get back into the game as he hasn’t scored a home TD yet this year (yes they only played 1 home game and was suspended) and looks to get back on the score sheet this week at home against a shaky secondary.
2022 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Over / Under: 0-2-0 (-2.00 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Overall: 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
2021 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 5-5-0 (-0.27 Units)
Money Line: 5-6-0 (+1.50 Units)
Over / Under: 5-7-1 (-2.49 Units)
Bonus Plays 7-5-0 (+6.79 Units)
Overall: 22-23-1 (+5.53 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 21-20-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 20-19-0 (-1.87 Units)
Money Line: 12-11-0 (+7.90 Units)
Over / Under: 20-15-1 (+3.06 Units)
Bonus Plays 11-8-0 (+6.86 Units)
Overall: 63-53-1 (+15.95 Units)