Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) @ New England Patriots (1-2)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
We are riding a nice two-week heater as Aaron Rodgers told everyone to “Relax” and showed why he is the reigning MVP from last season, leading the Packers to a game-winning field goal as time expired as the Moneyline of +170 hit allowing us to go back to back weeks in the positive. This week brings us a trip down memory lane as TB12 Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champions the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on his old team the New England Patriots.
Sunday Night Football
Tampa Bay (2-1 2nd in the NFC South) @ New England (1-2 3rd the AFC East)
Rain (92%) with a high of 67F 5-6 MPH Winds
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of September 29 @ 12:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Buccaneers (-7, -105) @ Patriots (+7, -115)
2021 TB 1-2-0
2001 NE 1-2-0
Not a lot of history between the two teams in the past 11 years as they have only met twice during that span. The last meeting came back in 2017 in Tampa Bay when good old Jamis Winston was leading the Buccaneers, and of course, Tom Brady was under center for New England. My how times have changed. New England has covered all three of the matchups easily by an average of 13.25 points and never have been the underdog. This is also the second time during the 11 year span that New England will play host to Tampa Bay.
Money Line (ML): Buccaneers (-290) @ Patriots (+230)
2021 TB 2-1 (0-1 Road)
2021 NE 1-2 (0-2 Home)
As mentioned these two teams have only met three times in 11 years, so not too much history, but New England has dominated winning all three games. Of course, times have changed, Winston is no longer the Buccaneers QB and well Brady isn’t the QB for the Patriots. The Pats are 3-0 overall and 1-0 at home in the short little series.
Over 49 (-110) / Under 49 (-110)
2021 TB Over 3-0
2021 NE Over 0-3
Head to head recent (11 years) matchups have been a defensive type game. With the under hitting all three times, only once has the over been at 50+ points and it was an under (54.5 in 2017) the other two times it has been 44.5 (again both unders hitting) so much has changed between the teams with the most drastic change being at the Quarterback position. History is a very small sample size that doesn’t equate to what these teams are now compared to the last time they played in 2017.
Trends To Watch
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games following a game getting 350 total yards.
5-0 is the OVER in the last five games when they are favorites.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games when they play in week four.
5-0 ATS in the last five games following an ATS loss.
5-0 ATS in the last five games following a loss.
New England Patriots
4-0 is the UNDER in the last four games as an underdog
5-0 is the UNDER in their last five games played in October.
5-0 is the UNDER in their last five games against a +.500 team.
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four at home against a team above .500.
4-0 ATS in their last four games when passing for more than 250 yards their last game.
Head-To-Head
5-0 is the favorite in the last five games ATS.
0-4 are the Buccaneers in the last four matchups ATS.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four matchups.
The Plays
All Odds are as of September 29 @ 12:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Buccaneers (-7, -105) @ Patriots (+7, -115) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Buccaneers (-290) @ Patriots (+230)
When the schedule came out way back when, this game was circled on every Brady and Patriots fan’s calendar. We all knew and know the Buccaneers are the better team and rightfully should be favorites. We will finally know if it’s the teacher or the student that made the Brady / Belichick era so great. Personally after seeing how Brady played — and won a Super Bowl — it is Brady that won all those Championships in New England, but New England’s defense has been more than capable this season with the return of key parts and Matt Patricia coming back to man the defensive side of the ball and there is no other team that knows Brady inside and out other than the Patriots. Do I think the Patriots will win? No, but at +240 (moved since 9/29) there is a lot of value in New England at home in front of a packed house on Sunday night. Bill Belichick will have some tricks up his sleeve to avoid a 1-3 start and a 0-3 start at home.
THE PICK: Patriots +240 (moved from +230)
Over 49 (-110) / Under 49 (-110)
We all know what Brady and the Bucs can do, averaging 34 points a game so far in the early stages of the season, meanwhile the Patriots have only averaged 18 points. Put them together and what do you get? 52 points, I know that’s not a logical way to think of an over / under will play out but on the flip side the Bucs have given up a hair under 30 points in three games on average, while New England has given up 17 points on average…giving you 47 points. Again not a way to figure but the numbers don’t lie. Also, it’s time for the whole NFL to see what Mac Jones is capable of as the handcuffs will come off and he will finally have 300+ game passing and will finally start connecting with his new weapons. Tampa Bay will be starting newly acquired CB Richard Sherman who hasn’t played since last year to try and replace Sean Murphy-Bunting from a season-ending injury.
THE PICK: Over 49 (-110)
Bonus: None
Week 3 GB @ SF Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: GB +170 Win
O/U: Pass
Bonus Play: None
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 1-0-0 (+1.70 Units)
Over / Under: 1-1-0 (-0.13 Units)
Bonus Plays 1-0-0 (+0.87 Units)
Overall: 3-1-0 (+2.44 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)