Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 3: Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
A nice bounce-back week as we swept the nightcap going 2-0 last week for +0.86U. I was correct on the plays but couldn’t be more off as to how they played out, as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens beat the Chiefs in a thriller. This week Rodgers and Company travel to the west coast to take on Jimmy G and the ‘9ers in what should be another great game.
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (1-1, tied for 1st in the NFCNorth) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0, tied for first in the NFC West)
Sunny with a high of 79F, 2-3 MPH Winds, No rain in the forecast
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are of September 21st @ 5:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Packers (+3.5, -115) @ 49ers (-3.5, -105)
2021 GB 1-1-0
2001 SF 1-1-0
The last time these two teams met was in San Francisco last season with the Packers winning 34-17 (GB coving -6) but before that the 49ers had won the last two and covered the last three dating back to 2018. Overall in the last 10 matchups, San Francisco has covered six of them with four of those games being at home. Green Bay has only covered twice in the last five games both being on the road.
Money Line (ML): Packers (+170) @ 49ers (-200)
2021 GB 1-1 (0-0 Away)
2021 SF 2-0(0-0 Home)
As mentioned last year when these two met the Packers won 34-17 and have won three of the last five straight up. Overall the 49ers have won six of ten with four of those victories coming at home. 49ers Quarterback Jimmy Garrapollo is 2-0 against the Packers but his numbers aren’t anything that stands out as he is 20/28 330 yards and two touchdowns. Lastly, the last three games have been in San Francisco, with the home squad winning two of those three.
Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)
2021 GB Over 1-1-0
2020 SF Over 1-1-0
When these two teams have met points come in bunches with the over hitting seven of the last ten times, and three of the last five. The number of 49.5 is a common trend for the match-up as it’s always been around the 46-48 (average line around 46.5) and that has hit over 6 times. With this being the highest in the past 10 games with the lowest being 41 back in 2010. Of the seven times the over has hit 4 times it has been crushed by 10 or more points and when the under has hit it has been just short twice with it 3.5 points with just once being a complete defensive battle going under by 28 points.
Trends To Watch
Green Bay Packers
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games following a Win.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games as an underdog & a road underdog.
6-0 is the OVER in the last six games in Week 3.
5-0 is the OVER in the last five against a team with a winning record.
San Francisco 49ers
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games following an ATS win.
5-1 in their last six games in Week 3.
4-1 is the OVER in the last five games when allowing 15 points or less the previous game.
4-1 is the OVER in the last five games following a win.
5-20-1 in their last 26 games as a home favorite.
Head-To-Head
4-1 is the favorite in the last five games.
9-3 is the OVER the last 12 matchups.
5-2 is the OVER in the last seven games at San Francisco.
The Plays
All Odds are of September 21st @ 5:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Packers (+3.5, -115) @ 49ers (-3.5, -105) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Packers (+170) @ 49ers (-200)
When I first saw this line I couldn’t have taken it quick enough. Aaron Rodgers might not have told Packers nation to “relax” leading up to their game last week against the Lions but he assured them it’s just one week and they will be fine. In Rodgers we trust as he is the reigning MVP for a reason. They can beat just about anyone on any given week and there is just too much value on the Packers to be such a big underdog.
THE PICK: Packers +170
Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)
A lot of this over will have to do with the Packers at least scoring 25 points and I think they can easily do as they can score at will as they showed on Monday night against Detroit. My concern comes with the 49ers as they can fall behind early and will need to become pass heavy (something they aren’t equipped to do) and don’t think they can get the remaining 19-21 points needed for the over to hit. If the over hits the game will back-and-forth. If it doesn’t I can see Green Bay winning by something like 28-10 as it will fall short.
THE PICK: Pass (lean Over but will not play)
Bonus: None
Week 2 CHI @ LAR Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: Passed
O/U: Over 54.5 -115 WIN
Bonus Play: Maholmes O317 Passing Yards -115 Win
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 0-0-0
Over / Under: 1-1-0 (-0.13 Units)
Bonus Plays 1-0-0 (+0.87 Units)
Overall: 2-1-0 (+0.74 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)