Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 2: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Patience. That is what Aaron Rodgers told us after the Week 1 loss against the Vikings, he also told us to relax after last year’s loss to the Saints. So with that I say lets have patience and relax after Dak and Co. failed to do anything last week causing the over to miss horribly. On the flip side, Justin Fields looks to put the Bears at 2-0 and change the narrative of the NFC North and make sure Rodgers doesn’t own them any more.
Sunday Night Football – 9/18
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Chicago Bears (1-0-0) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1-0)
Weather: 70 degrees, 5-6 MPH winds, 24% chance of precipitation
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
All Odds are as of September 17th @ 11:30 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Bears (+10, -105) vs Packers (-10, -115)
2022 CHI 1-0-0
2022 GB 0-1-0
Lots of history between these teams as we check out the past five seasons the Packers have covered eight of those past 10 matchups. The last time the Bears covered was in 2018 twice winning one matchup outright (-5.5 won outright, +6.5 lost 24-23). Over the last 10 the favorite has won seven of the last 10 with Green Bay winning six of them as a favorite. This spread is the second highest to last year’s GB -11.5 (GB Covered at home). The average spread has been between 6-6.5 over the last 10 matchups, with this week’s spread being 4 points higher than the average.
Money Line (ML): Bears (+360) @ Packers (-450)
2022 CHI 1-0-0 (0-0-0 Away; 1-0-0 Home)
2022 GB 0-1-0 (0-1-0 Away; 0-0-0 Home)
This is not a matchup Chicago likes to see, as they only won once in the past 10 matchups against Green Bay, Fields has yet to beat the Pack but looks to finally get his first victory in Lambeau. Overall in the past five matchups Chicago is 0-5 in Green Bay dating back to 2017 with its only win coming in 2018 by a score of 24-17.
Over 42 (-110) / Under 42 (-110)
2022 CHI 0-1-0 IN OVERS
2022 GB 0-1-0 IN OVERS
Like last week where we did not see fireworks, this week we expect them. In the past 10 matchups the over has hit six times, and three times in the past five games. Typically when these teams meet the total is low with the highest being 48 back in 2021, with the lowest being 37.5 in 2017 (both times going over). The average total has been between 44-44.5 slightly lower than Sunday’s total. This week’s total will be the lowest it has been since 2019, and the third lowest in the past 11 matchups.
Trends To Watch
Chicago Bears
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games as ROAD UNDERDOGS.
5-0 is the UNDER in CHI last five games in WEEK 2.
0-5 is CHI ATS in their last five games against the NFC North.
4-1 is the UNDER in CHI’s last five games when passing for less than 150 yards in their previous game.
4-1 is the OVER in CHI’s last five road games.
Green Bay Packers
0-4 is GB ATS in their last four games when allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game.
4-0 is GB ATS in their last four games in WEEK 2.
7-1 is GB ATS in their last eight games when scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
1-5 is GB ATS in their last six games overall.
4-1 is the OVER in GB’s last five games in WEEK 2.
Head-To-Head
5-0 is the FAVORITE ATS in the last five matchups.
1-5 is CHI ATS in the last six matchups in GB.
4-1 is the OVER in the last five matchups in GB.
7-11 is CHI ATS in the last 29 matchups.
The Plays
All Odds are as of September 17th @ 11:30 AM ESTvia DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Bears (+10, -105) vs Packers (-10, -115) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Bears (+360) @ Packers (-450)
This week the Bears are in prime position to upset the Packers. The Bears, more so Justin Fields, showed improvements from last season. They already beat what people think could be the NFC Champions in the 49ers (i am not one of those people) and the Packers are still trying to find themselves. If this game was later in the season it would be a pass, but it’s not and they will do better than last week that’s for sure, but the Bears will be playing in some normal weather this week and we will see Fields shine on national TV pulling off another upset. Just for fun the Bears are +1200 to win the North (4th best in the division, and worth a shot as they are better than the Lions, and if they can pull off this upset they would start to trend upward to win the division, and the over of 6.5 win can still be had at +100).
THE PLAY: BEARS +360
Over 42 (-110) / Under 42 (-110)
Prior to seeing this week’s total I thought it would be around 47-50. A lot of this number feels like an overreaction to “how bad” people think the Bears and Packers are. The Bears are better than advertised, they put up 19 points against the 49ers (an expected top 5 defense in a monsoon) while the Packers struggled to adjust to the new WR core only putting up 7 points against the Vikings. This week Rodgers will put up 2 scores in the air, and Fields will take another step forward setting the Bears up to be in position to make sure Rodgers will no longer own them in a high-scoring game that should see at least 50 points put up between the two.
THE PLAY: OVER 42
2022 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Over / Under: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Overall: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
2021 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 5-5-0 (-0.27 Units)
Money Line: 5-6-0 (+1.50 Units)
Over / Under: 5-7-1 (-2.49 Units)
Bonus Plays 7-5-0 (+6.79 Units)
Overall: 22-23-1 (+5.53 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 21-20-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 20-19-0 (-1.87 Units)
Money Line: 12-11-0 (+7.90 Units)
Over / Under: 20-15-1 (+3.06 Units)
Bonus Plays 11-8-0 (+6.86 Units)
Overall: 63-53-1 (+15.95 Units)