Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 2: Kansas City Chiefs(1-0) @ Baltimore Ravens(0-1)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
After a tough beat last week when the Rams scored with under 5 minutes to play to have the over hit when the game was basically finished, we come back this week with a Primetime matchup that surely won’t disappoint between Maholmes and the Chiefs against Jackson and the Ravens.
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunny with a high of 87F, 5-6 MPH Winds
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are of September 14th @ 4:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Chiefs (-3.5, -110) @ Ravens (+3.5, -110)
2021 KC 0-1-0
2001 BAL 0-1-0
The last time these two teams met was in Baltimore last season with the Chiefs winning 34-20 (KC +3.5 cover) and since the Lamar era, Baltimore is 1-2 when it comes to the spread (1-1 at home), dating back to 2006 (last 8 games) The Ravens have only covered three times (twice at home). The Chiefs have covered three of the last four games.
Money Line (ML): Chiefs (-210) @ Ravens (+175)
2021 KC ML 1-0 (0-0 Away)
2021 BAL ML 0-1 (0-0 Home)
Last year, when these two met in Baltimore, the Chiefs won 34-20, and since the Lamar era, Baltimore is 0-3 (0-1 at home) and has given up 27 or more points in those three games. Dating back to 2006, it is an even split as each team has gotten four wins against each other but the home team has only one three of the matchups. Currently, the Chiefs are riding a four-game win streak against Baltimore splitting two on the road and two at home.
Over 54.5 (-115) / Under 54.5 (-105)
2021 KC Over 1-0-0
2020 BAL Over 1-0-0
When these two teams have met they are most likely put in the spotlight as both teams have electric quarterbacks and this week is clearly no different as they are the game of the week under the lights in Baltimore. In the last five games, the over has hit 3 times with it missing last year by 1 point to make it four straight times of going over. Over the past 8 matchups, the average number has been right around 47.5 with them later years of this head to head having significant lower numbers (41 or lower five of six matchups from 2006-2015, and being 48 or more in the past three).
Trends To Watch
Kansas City Chiefs
0-4 ATS in their last four games when failing to rush for 100 yards in the previous game.
0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record in their last four games.
1-6 ATS against AFC teams In their last seven games.
5-1 is the OVER when allowing 350+ total yards their previous six games.
5-1 is the OVER following a ATS loss in their last 6 games.
Baltimore Ravens
4-0 is the UNDER when rushing for 150+ in their previous four games.
4-0 is the OVER when allowing 30+ points in their previous four games.
4-0 ATS after allowing 250+ passing in their previous four games.
4-0 ATS in their last four games on turf.
0-5 ATS at home against a team with a winning record in their last five games.
Head-To-Head
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS their last five games in Baltimore.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS overall their last five games.
Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Plays
All Odds are of September 14th @ 4:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Chiefs (-3.5, -110) @ Ravens (+3.5, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Chiefs (-210) @ Ravens (+175)
Originally, I had wanted to lean the Ravens, then I saw the loss in a thriller on Monday night, and my thought was, “How can a team that should be good go 0-2 playing on a shorter week playing their home opener lose?” Then I realized and saw a staggering stat that made me change my mind quickly. Lamar Jackson only has one 300+ yard passing game in 38 career starts. Kansas City will neutralize his run game making him beat them In the air and We just haven’t seen that from Lamar. KC will win but not laying the juice of -210 so it will be a pass again this week.
THE PICK: Pass
Over 54.5 (-115) / Under 54.5 (-105)
This game should be another fun thriller like how both teams played last week. Asking each game to score basically 22 points each isn’t that much to ask for the Chiefs with how explosive their offence can be can put up points in a blink of an eye as they showed last week against the Browns, and the same can be said for the Ravens as long as they limit turnovers there will be few punts and more end zone celebrating so I am going with the over this week.
THE PICK: Over 54.5, -115
Bonus: Maholmes Over 317 Passing Yards -115
The Ravens will be without starting CB Jimmy Smith putting the load on Marlon Humphrey who is currently questionable covering Tyrek Hill all game. If Derek Carr can put up 435 yards passing — 366 yards before overtime — I don’t see how Maholmes can’t match that or do better.
Week 1 CHI @ LAR Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Moneyline: Pass
O/U: Under 43.5 LOSS
Bonus Play: n/a
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 0-0-0
Over / Under: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-0-0
Overall: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)