Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 18: Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) @ Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Here we are, the final week of the regular season and we have what could be and should be a great “win-and-in” game between the Chargers and the Raiders. Last week Aaron Rodgers and the Packers basically hit the over themselves like I mentioned. This week we look to finish strong and get as close to even (or better) to end the regular season.
Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles (9-7-0, 2nd Place in the AFC West) @ Las Vegas (9-7-0 3rd Place in AFC West)
Weather: 51 degrees, 6-7 MPH winds, 0% chance of precipitation
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of January 7th @ 10:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Chargers (-3, -115) @ Raiders (+3, -105)
2021 LAC 8-8-0 ATS
2021 LV 7-9-0 ATS
The tale of two division rivals once again come into Sunday’s match up with a trip to the playoffs on the line. The past 10 matchups have been pretty even with the Chargers covering six of the past ten, with it being a story of streaks with the Chargers covering the last two, then the Raiders the last three, then back to the Chargers for four. The Chargers have covered three times in Vegas / Oakland most recently coming last year in overtime (outright, +3.5) Meanwhile Vegas has covered only once as home back in 2019 (outright, +1) The margin of victory has been 6 points or more in half of the games with the Chargers covering them four times. The average spread between the two is right around 4.5 so this week’s spread is just about in line with what it’s been over the years.
Money Line (ML):
Chargers (-160) @ Raiders (+140)
2021 LAC 9-7-0 (4-3-0 Road)
2021 LV 9-7-0 (4-4-0 Home)
Over the past ten matchups the Chargers have won six of ten, winning the last two (and covering as well). What is also interesting is that whoever has won those games has also covered those games. The Raiders have only won once straight up coming back In 2019 as a slight underdog, while the Chargers have won three times on the road and 1-0 In Vegas. Just like the spread each team has been streaky as it has been L.A. winning the past two, Vegas three prior to that and then L.A. again for four more.
Over 49 (-110) / Under 49 (-110)
2021 LAC OVER 9-7-0
2021 LV OVER 7-9-0
The total has been one-sided as the OVER is only 3-7 over the last ten games. It has been more trending to the over as it’s 3-2 over the last five but prior to that it’s been all under. In Vegas / Oakland the OVER has only hit twice (the one and only time in Vegas as well) The average total in the last ten matchups is right in line with this week as it is just under 49.5. When the under does hit it hits big as five of the seven UNDERS have been by 10 points or more.
Trends to Watch
Los Angeles Chargers
5-0 is the OVER in the last five games overall.
4-0 is the OVER in the last four games against the AFC.
5-1 is the OVER in the last six games in January.
5-1 ATS in the last six games on grass.
4-1 is the OVER following a straight up win of 14 or more points.
Las Vegas Raiders
4-0 is the UNDER in the last four games following a straight up win.
6-1-1 is the OVER in the last eight games against a team with a winning record.
11-2-1 is the OVER in the last fourteen as home underdogs.
5-1 ATS in the last six games after allowing less than 150 rush yards in their last game.
1-5 ATS in the last six games on grass.
Head-To-Head
LAC is 5-1 ATS in the last six games in Oakland / Las Vegas.
UNDERDOG is 18-7 in the last 25 games.
ROAD TEAM is 10-4 ATS in the last fourteen games.
UNDER is 7-3 in the last ten games.
The Plays
All Odds are as of January 7th @ 10:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Chargers (+3, -115) @ Raiders (-3, -105) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Chargers (-160) @ Raiders (+140)
Who is ready for another Chargers letdown? Raise your hand! I am raising it for sure as they will allow the Rams to be the only team in Los Angeles making the playoffs this year. This game will be close — because why won’t it be? — but in the end Herbert just isn’t there yet and won’t be able to seal the deal. He doesn’t have the “IT” factor like his draft class buddy Joe Burrow and the coaching will squander this game away late one of two ways…. If they have the ball late and down a costly INT will be thrown. If they are up late just watch Week One when Derek Carr beat the Ravens in a Monday Night thriller for the comeback win.
THE PICK: Raiders (+140)
Over 49 (-110) / Under 49 (-110)
This number will stay the same or drop drastically I feel based on another game happening in the day. If (basically when) the Colts beat the Jaguars the number will stay around 49 and I expect a fun back-and-forth high-scoring game, but if the Jaguars unexpectedly beat the Colts, then both teams could play very conservative and a low-scoring run the ball controls the clock game could happen as IF they the TIE both teams make the playoffs leaving the Colts on the outside looking in. I’m all for chaos and if that happens I’m all for it (while I don’t see the Colts losing) both teams will be going blow for blow leading to how I mentioned in my moneyline pick coming down to the end.
THE PICK: OVER 49 (-110)
Bonus
I really want to go out with a bang to end the season so I’m not recommending a bonus play but I did mention the game being close coming down to the last few possessions. I could not find a correct score play but I do like the Raiders to win by 1-6 points at +350.
THE PICK: Raiders to win by 1-6 (+350)
Week 17 MIN @ GB Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: PASS
Moneyline: PASS
O/U: OVER 49 (-110) WIN
Bonus Play: PASS
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-5-0 (-1.60 Units)
Over / Under: 3-6-1 (-3.31 Units)
Bonus Plays 3-1-0 (+4.07 Units)
Overall: 8-13-1 (-2.34 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)