Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 17: Minnesota Vikings (7-8) @ Green Bay Packers (12-3)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Down the rabbit hole we continue to go as the Football Team did everything but show up against the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys. This week let’s hope we can right the ship as the Vikings look to keep playoff hopes alive against the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field.
Sunday Night Football
Minnesota (7-8-0, 2nd Place in the NFCNorth) @ Green Bay (12-3-0 1st Place in NFC North)
Weather: 6 degrees, 8-9 MPH winds, 1% chance of precipitation
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of December 31st @ 3 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Vikings (+13.5, -105) @ Packers (-13.5, -115)
2021 MIN 8-7-0 ATS
2001 GB 11-4-0 ATS
The tale of two division rivals again come into Sunday’s match up, one already with a division and playoff berth clinched, while the other looks to hang on to postseason hopes. The past 10 matchups have been split with each team covering five with the Vikings covering the past two, and the Packers the last three prior to that. Green Bay has covered only twice as a home favorite and once as a road underdog. Meanwhile Minnesota has also covered in Green Bay twice over the course of the last 5 meetings there. The margin in which a team has covered is the interesting number to look at, six of the ten matchups in a game have been decided by 7 or more points, and the average number of margin of ATS has been 8. A number well below this week’s number.
Money Line (ML):
Vikings (+575) @ Packers (-850)
2021 MIN 7-8-0 (3-5-0 Road)
2021 GB 12-3-0 (7-0-0 Home)
At first glance you would think the Packers have “owned” the Vikings like they do basically every other team in the NFC North, but it’s the opposite actually. The Vikings are 7-3 over the Packers in the last ten matchups, of those matchups 3 wins have come in Green Bay. Though the Packers are currently 7-0 at home they one won twice in the past 5 years at home dating back to 2019 against the Vikings.
Over 42 (-110) / Under 42 (-110)
2021 MIN OVER 9-6-0
2021 GB OVER 6-9-0
The total has been a streaky one going OVER the last three meetings then UNDER the 3 previous, then OVER, UNDER, UNDER and OVER. In Green Bay the OVER has hit three times of the five matchups. The O/U Margin when it hits, hits hard as NINE of the ten matchups have been hit by 6 points or MORE, and SEVEN of those nine have been 13 points or more. This weeks number is the second lowest total in the past ten matchups (41 in 2017) and the average total has been around 45 – 45.5 points over those ten games.
Trends to Watch
Minnesota Vikings
4-0 is the OVER in their last four games after gaining 250 yards in their last game
4-0 is the OVER in their last four road games against a team with a winning record.
6-1 is the OVER in their last seven games after gaining less that 90 rushin yards in their last game.
5-1 is the OVER in their last six games.
Green Bay Packers
10-1 is the OVER in their last eleven games in January.
8-1 ATS in their last nine games against the NFC.
6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team under .500.
Head-To-Head
4-0 is the Underdog ATS in the last four games.
The Plays
All Odds are as of December 31st @ 3 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Vikings (+13.5, -105) @ Packers (-13.5, -105) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Vikings (+575) @ Packers (-850)
Unlike last week where I thought I saw value on Washington, this week there is no value on the Vikings. This is a team that has struggled all year holding leads late and not that I see them even holding a lead late this week, if by some chance they do no amount of time will not be enough to let Rodgers and company complete a comeback and end the Vikings season once and for all.
THE PICK: PASS
Over 42 (-110) / Under 42 (-110)
All logic is going out the windows this week as we look to put together some positive numbers heading into the final two weeks. Based on the trend the over seems to be a lock as it constantly has been hitting for both teams. With the Packers still trying to lock up the number one overall seed, both teams will be trying for points and of course a win. Asking for 21 points from each team isn’t asking a lot and even if the Vikings can’t put up 21 the Packers can more than make up for that. Also combine that with Rodgers looking to make a statement on winning his 2nd MVP in as many years.
NOTE: Kirk Cousins is OUT for Sunday Night Football
THE PICK: OVER 42 (-110)
Bonus
THE PICK: Pass
Week 16 WFT @ DAL Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: PASS
Moneyline: Washington Football Team +375 (LOSS)
O/U: PASS
Bonus Play: PASS
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-5-0 (-1.60 Units)
Over / Under: 2-6-1 (-4.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 3-1-0 (+4.07 Units)
Overall: 7-13-1 (-2.75 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)