Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 15: New Orleans Saints (6-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
We continue down the rabbit hole as we are now unfortunately 3+ weeks of not cashing in a winning ticket, but fear not TB12 if here to save the day this week as the Tampa Bay Bucs’ take on the New Orleans Saints in Raymond James.
Sunday Night Football
New Orleans (6-7, 3rd Place in the NFC South) @ Tampa Bay (10-3-0, 1st Place in NFC South)
Weather: 71 degrees, 5-6 MPH Wins with 5% chance of rain.
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of December 18th @ 11 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Saints (+11.5, -110) @ Buccaneers (-11.5, -110)
2021 NO 6-7-0 ATS
2001 TB 7-6-0 ATS
The tale of two division rivals has changed drastically over the past 3 seasons, as we seen the likes of Brees and Brady, Winston and Brees, and now Brady and Hill. The FAVORITE in these matchups has been 5-5 over the past ten matchups, but as of late the UNDERDOG has covered the last three matchups (once in Tampa). This week’s spread is one of the bigger ones over the last ten games with 10 being the next biggest in 2018 (TB & NO Splitting, with NO covering in TB). The average spread between the two teams has been right around 5 – 5.5 in favor of the Saints, but as week have seen and know the script has been flipped for the time being.
Money Line (ML): Saints (+425) @ Buccaneers (-550)
2021 NO 6-7-0 (4-3-0 Road)
2021 TB 10-3-0 (6-0-0 Home)
Just like the Saints have owned the spread they have also owned the heads up department also. They are 7-3 heads up against the Bucs and while a majority of that has been with Brees at the helm, Brady is only 1-2 against them since joining Tampa, but when it matters the most he won the bigger game in the playoffs last year. The Saints have won six of its last seven against them winning half of them on the road.
Over 45.5 (-110) / Under 45.5 (-110)
2021 NO OVER IS 6-7-0
2021 TB OVER IS 7-6-0
Points are normally a given when these two meet with the number not being as low as this week as it’s been at 48 or more over the past ten games with the low being 46 once. So this week has reached a new low with 45.5. The OVER is 6-4 with the under 4-6. Only twice has the number been a sweat with it being decided by 3 points or less, other than that it has been decided by 6+ points the other 8 times. The average number has fallen between 50 – 50.5 so since like the spread the number this week is way off the average when these two teams have met.
Trends To Watch
New Orleans Saints
5-0 is the OVER in their last five games allowing less than 90 rush yards in their previous game.
0-6 ATS in their last games following an ATS win.
7-1 is the UNDER following a win of 14+ points.
4-1 is the UNDER in their last five games gaining 150 passing yards in their last game.
8-2 is the UNDER in their last ten games allowing less than 15 points in their last game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four games against a team under .500.
4-0 ATS in their last four games.
4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.
5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.
5-0 ATS in their last five games at home.
Head-To-Head
6-1 are the SAINTS ATS in their last 7 games.
10-3 is the UNDER in the last 13 games in Tampa Bay.
The Plays
All Odds are as of December 18th @ 11 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Saints (+11.5, -110) @ Buccaneers (-11.5, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Saints (+425) @ Buccaneers (-550)
Taysom Hill is currently the starter for the Saints last week he only threw for 175 yards with no touchdowns. You know what you will get with him: short passes and a lot of running plays. Unfortunately they are going to go up against a top 3 rushing defense in the league and that front seven for the Bucs will focus on that. If Hill can find a way to find some cracks in the Tampa Bay backfield they have a shot but asking him to match a Tom Brady performance is one tall task.
THE PICK: Pass
Over 45.5 (-110) / Under 45.5 (-110)
I feel like this number being so low has a lot to do with Hill at Quarterback and if he can just somehow manage a game like he did last week against the Jets (30 points) and coming in against the Cowboys (2 Touchdowns), he will keep the game close enough to keep Brady in the game to keep him trying to score. Normally thats a bad thing if your the opposition but if you are rooting for points you want Brady in the game as long as possible, and mix that in with the fact the Bucs are going to want to make sure they do have the game in hand as they are trying to keep pace with Green Bay and Arizona.
THE PICK: OVER 45.5 (-110)
Bonus
THE PICK: Pass
Week 14 CHI @ GB Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: PASS
Moneyline: PASS
O/U: PASS
Bonus Play: J. Graham Anytime TD (Loss)
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-4-0 (-0.60 Units)
Over / Under: 2-5-1 (-3.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 3-1-0 (+4.07 Units)
Overall: 7-11-1 (-0.75 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)