Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 14: Green Bay Packers (9-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-8)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Here we are again at a crossroads as we are on a cooler the last two weeks with the Overs not even coming close in the Browns / Ravens game and also the Broncos / Chiefs matchup — a pick I gave on Twitter. But fear not we are up slightly on the year as we try and “Relax” this week as current Packers Quarterback Aaron Rodgers would say and look to right the ship and turn the corner.
Sunday Night Football
Chicago (4-8, 3rd Place in the NFC North) @ Green Bay (9-3-0, 1st Place in NFC North)
Weather: 32 degrees, 11-12 MPH Wins with 0% chance of rain.
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of December 10th @ 2 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread:
Bears (+12.5, -120) @ Packers (-12.5, +100)
2021 CHI 4-8-0 ATS
2021 GB 10-2-0 ATS
Lots of history between these two teams dating back to the previous 10 matchups, the Packers have covered seven of the last ten games and the last five dating back to 2019. They have only covered three times at home over the course of the past ten matchps. This is also the first time over those ten matchups where the spread has been in double digits. The previous high was 7.5 in 2020 and in 2017. The average spread has been between 5 – 5.5 with the Packers being an underdog in only three of those games.
Money Line (ML): Browns (+425) @ Ravens (-590)
2021 CHI 4-8-0 (2-4-0 Away)
2021 GB 9-3-0 (5-0-0 Home)
Just like the spread, Green Bay has dominated the straight up department as well winning nine of the past ten matchups, winning five of the last six. Of the nine victories they have won, only four of them have come at home. Chicagos’s last victory was back in 2018 at home and was a favorite to do so. Chicago looks to end a five game losing streak against Green Bay.
Over 43 (-110) / Under 43 (-110)
2021 CHI OVER IS 4-8-0
2021 GB OVER IS 4-8-0
Points are a give and take between these two as the OVER has hit six of the past ten match-ups, with the OVER hitting three of the last five games. Not once has the over reached over 50, and that is surprising considering how good at least the offense of the Packers is and could be. Only two times the O/U has been won by ten points or more, while the other times they have been a sweat a majority of the time. This week’s number does fall in line with the typical average as it has been just about 43 – 43.5 points.
Trends To Watch
Chicago Bears
5-0 ATS in their last five games played in Week 14.
0-5 ATS in their last five games against the NFC.
1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning record.
1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
5-1 is the OVER in their last six games following a BYE.
Green Bay Packers
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four games allowing 350+ totals yards in their previous game.
5-0 is the OVER in their last five games after scoring 30+ points in their previous games.
4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win.
Head-To-Head
4-0 ATS is the favorite in the last four matchups.
CHI is 1-4 ATS in the last five matchups in Green Bay.
CHI is 7-21 ATS overall in the last 28 matchups.
The Plays
All Odds are as of December 10th @ 2 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Bears (+12.5, -120) @ Packers (-12.5, +100) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Bears (+425) @ Packers (-590)
Justin Fields (prob.) or Andy Dalton (questionable), does it make much of a difference in this one? Hopefully if you have any faith in the Bears to win you would want to see Dalton under center but even then I still don’t think they have a shot. Normally I like team with such a high moneyline to give some value (like the Titans a few weeks ago against the Rams in LA), but the Bears don’t give me any reason to like them one bit this week.
THE PICK: Pass
Over 43 (-110) / Under 43 (-110)
I can’t catch a break over these past few weeks, when we expect some fireworks we get a disappointing showing. This week’s number is a low one, with the Packers coming off a bye, getting healthy, and playing home one would think they could hit the OVER themself, and I applied that type of logic the last two weeks and have been burned. I will be passing on this week’s O/U as well.
THE PICK: Pass
Bonus
When all else fails, let’s go back to the well in terms of a bonus play this week. Hopefully this week it won’t take all game for our anytime scorer to deliver, but this week I am a fan of Jimmy Graham finding the endzone. He currency sits at +700 (+5000 first) to score. He has found the endzone twice the past two weeks. He only has 2 touchdowns against the packers (1 as a Bear, the other as a Saint) but with his recent trend of finding the endzone, him finding paydirt against his former team holds value. Also the Bears will be passing a lot, playing keep up and catch up.
Bonus: Jimmy Graham ANYTIME TD +700
Week 13 DEN @ KC Recap (via Twitter):
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: PASS
Moneyline: PASS
O/U: OVER 45.5 (LOSS)
Bonus Play: PASS
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-4-0 (-0.60 Units)
Over / Under: 2-5-1 (-3.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 3-0-0 (+5.07 Units)
Overall: 7-10-1 (+0.25 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)