Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 12: Cleveland Browns (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
We did have the offensive showing last week that I mentioned as the Chargers put up 41 points, but what I didn’t think would happen was the Steelers kept up with Los Angeles until the end as the UNDER got crushed as we will ride the wave of a two week losing streak. We look to right the ship this week as the Browns also look to right their own ship against the Ravens for a battle of first place in the AFC North.
Sunday Night Football
Cleveland (6-5, 4th Place in the AFC North) @ Baltimore (7-3-0, 1st Place in AFC North)
Weather: 40 degrees, 7-8 MPH Wins with 10% chance of rain.
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of November 26th @ 10:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Browns (+4, -110) @ Ravens (-4, -110)
2021 CLE 5-6-0 ATS
2021 BAL 4-6-0 ATS
Lots of history between these two teams dating back to the previous 10 matchups, but Baltimore has covered seven of ten games (covering the last three games) and have covered three of those seven at home. The Browns have covered just once back in 2018 in (+7) in Baltimore. This week’s spread is on the lower end as typically the number has been around 6-9 points, with it being 4 or less only 3 times prior to this weekend. In the last 10 matches Baltimore has been the favorite in all of them. The average spread has been 6 – 6.5 over the last 10 matchups.
Money Line (ML): Browns (+160) @ Ravens (-190)
2021 CLE 6-5 (2-3 Away)
2021 BAL 7-3 (4-1 Home)
Just like the spread Baltimore has dominated the straight up department as well winning eight of the past ten matchups, winning four of the last five as well. Of the eight victories they have won, half of them at home (covering 3 as well). Cleveland’s last victory came in 2019 as they were also the underdog winning straight up. Cleveland looks to end a three game losing streak against Baltimore.
Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)
2021 CLE OVER IS 6-5-0
2021 BAL OVER IS 5-5-0
Points are to be had when it comes to these two, but only four times the over as hit twice when it was on the lowered end around 42, and then twice when it was around 46. Half of the time when the O/U it’s been by either less than a touchdown or more than a touchdown. Two of the four overs have been in Baltimore with the under hitting more times than not (three times out of six). This week’s number is about 3 points higher than the typical average of 44 – 44.5 over the last ten matchups, with it being tied for the second highest in ten years (48 in 2019, UNDER hitting).
Trends To Watch
Cleveland Browns
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four games when allowing 150+Rushing yards in the previous game.
4-0 is the OVER in their last four games as UNDERDOGS
4-0 is the OVER in their last four games as ROAD UNDERDOGS.
4-0 is the OVER in their last four games in WEEK 12’s.
5-0 is the OVER in theri last five games against teams above .500
Baltimore Ravens
0-5 ATS in theri last five games following a ATS Win.
9-1 ATS in the last 10 games in WEEK 12.
1-6 ATS in their last seven HOME games against a team above .500.
1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing 350+ total yards in their last game.
9-2 is the OVER in their last 10 home games.
Head-To-Head
4-1 is the ROAD team in their last five matchups.
CLE is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 matchups.
FAVORITES are 7-3 in their last 10 matchups.
7-3 is the UNDER in the last 10 matchups.
The Plays
All Odds are as of November 26th @ 10:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Browns (+4, -110) @ Ravens (-4, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Browns (+160) @ Ravens (-190)
I honestly can’t pick one side or another in this match up. The line is set up perfectly to avoid it. The Ravens are the better team but are they that much better at -190? The line is just too high of a price. On the flip side there is little value on the Browns at +160 that I don’t think they are worth a play at that price. If it gets to +180 or better with some late action tilting on Baltimore then the Browns are worth a play but other than that its a pass this week. If a plan is to be made a lean would be Browns +4 but that is only because it is more than a FG and this game could come down to a final possession but even at that point, I’m still not 100 percent sold.
THE PICK: Pass
Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)
Before even looking into any trends or stats I was taking the over in this matchups. Then when I saw the number was only 47 it just solidified my pick as I expected a high-scoring affair this week. Cleveland is set to get their 1-2 Punch at running back, back as Hunt and Chubb are both healthy again. That will only help Baker as he will be allowed to run a more balanced and efficient offence. We all know what Lamar is capable of doing as he already showed us once earlier in the season to never count him out in Primetime. Both teams will be trading scores back and forth, and honestly would like this OVER and would play it up to 50.
THE PICK: UNDER 47 (-110)
Bonus: None
Week 11 PIT @ LAC Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: PASS
Moneyline: PASS
O/U: UNDER 47 (LOSS)
Bonus Play: PASS
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-4-0 (-0.60 Units)
Over / Under: 2-3-1 (-1.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 3-0-0 (+5.07 Units)
Overall: 7-8-1 (+2.25 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)