Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 11: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
What was a close game until halftime turned out to be a blowout as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs routed the Raiders 41-14. As we take the loss, we head into a Primetime matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium.
Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh (5-3-1, 2nd Place in the AFC North) @ Los Angeles (5-4-0, 2nd Place in AFC West)
Weather: (Dome)
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of November 19th @ 12:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Steelers (+5.5, -110) @ Chargers (-5.5, -110)
2021 PIT 3-6-0 ATS
2001 LAC 5-4-0 ATS
This will be the first meeting in two years between the two teams and eighth overall in the past 15 years. It has been split evenly 4-4 in terms of the spread with the away team covering (and winning) the last four meetings. The Steelers only have covered twice on the road in the previous eight games with the most recent coming in 2019. The average spread over the past seasons has been 5 right on the dot, with this week’s game falling right in line at 5.5.
Money Line (ML): Steelers (+210) @ Chargers (-260)
2021 PIT 5-3-1 (2-1-0 Away)
2021 LAC 5-4-1 (2-3-0 Home)
Over the past 15 years, as mentioned, the Steelers have won five of the eight meetings winning two of the last three and four of the last six. Of those five, two of those victories have come on the road. The only difference this go around it will be the first time Herbert will face the Steelers.
Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)
2021 PIT OVER IS 2-7-0
2021 LAC OVER IS 3-8-0
Coming into this week’s matchup, it’s a tale of two sides with the Steelers’ defense ranking in the top 10 (8th, 20.6 PPG given up), while the Chargers are 25th (25.3 PPG) and the Steelers offense is 25th (19.7 PPG) while the Chargers are 15th (24.3 PPG). The O/U trends are a bit all over the place with them split over the past eight matchups. This week is also one of the higher numbers second to 52.5 back in 2018. The average O/U number has been 42, well under this week’s matchup. When the OVER hits it gets smashed hitting by over 10 points (20+ 3 times) while when the UNDER hits it has been on the cusp hitting by less than 2 points (3 times) and once by 19.
Trends To Watch
Pittsburgh Steelers
5-1-0 is the UNDER in the last six games following a ATS Loss.
12-3-1 is the UNDER in the last 16 games following a loss allowing 150 yards or less passing.
8-2-1 is the UNDER in the last 11 games as a road underdog.
4-1 is the UNDER in the last five games in Week 11.
4-1 is the UNDER in the last five games against the AFC.
Los Angeles Chargers
1-8 ATS in the last nine games in November.
1-6 ATS in the last seven games in Week 11.
5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last game.
4-1 ATS in the last five games following an ATS Loss and Straight up loss.
Head-To-Head
4-0 is the underdog ATS in the last four matchups.
4-0 is the road team ATS in the last four matchups.
4-0 is the UNDER in the last four matchups in Los Angeles.
4-1 are the Steelers ATS in the last five matchups in Los Angeles.
The Plays
All Odds are as of November 19th @ 12:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Steelers (+5.5, -110) @ Chargers (-5.5, -110) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Steelers (+210) @ Chargers (-260)
We saw backup quarterbacks come in and win this season, and it originally looked like Mason Rudolph might start. Either way, the Chargers aren’t the Lions (a team the Steelers struggled with a week ago at home tying them). With or without Ben Roethlisberger, this is a game the Chargers need to get right and find a way back into the win column. The juice is just too much to give at -260 to take.
THE PICK: Pass
Over 47 (-110) / Under 47 (-110)
The Steelers are known to be a run first team and control the ball, if they do that they could even have a shot to win this week, but as mentioned the this is a make right game for the Chargers and expect them to play their best game this week to keep pace with the rest of the AFC West. Herbert will ball out, the Chargers will put up points, and, even with Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers won’t keep up. I can see the Chargers winning in a 28-10, 31-14 type of game.
THE PICK: UNDER 47 (-110)
Bonus: None
Week 10 KC @ LV Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: Pass
Moneyline: Raiders +155 LOSS
O/U: PASS
Bonus Play: PASS
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-4-0 (-0.60 Units)
Over / Under: 2-2-1 (-0.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 3-0-0 (+5.07 Units)
Overall: 7-7-1 (+3.25 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)