Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 10: Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Pointless touchdowns? Never when you gamble and that’s exactly what happened last week when Stafford basically made sure the Rams scored in the final seconds when the game was clearly over, but not only did they score he made sure Sony Michel was getting the ball as he was rushing or target down inside the five yard line, and just like that the +300 cashes and Sony Michel keeps his primetime scoring going 7 of 17 (41%) This weeks we revisit a old time AFC West rivalry when the Chiefs travel to Vegas.
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City (5-4 3rd Place in the AFC West) @ Las Vegas (5-3 2nd Place in the AFC West)
Weather: (Dome)
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
Inside The Numbers
All Odds are as of November 10th @ 8:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Chiefs (-2.5, -115) @ Raiders (+2.5, -105)
2021 KC 2-7-0 ATS
2001 LV 4-4 ATS
This will be the first meeting between the two AFC West foes, and over the past five seasons (10 games) Kansas City has covered six times (twice on the road) Vegas has covered the past two games last year with an outright victory in Kansas City. Outside of last season it has been all Chiefs. The average spread over the past seasons has been between 7.5 – 8 points, but this week is one of the lowest it has been since 2016 when the spread was 1 in favor of the Chiefs and they will keep the streak of being the favorite going at 11.
Money Line (ML): Chiefs (-140) @ Raiders (+155)
2021 KC 5-4-0 (3-2 Road)
2021 LV 5-3-0 (3-1 Home)
Over the past five years as mentioned the Chiefs have been favorites for eleven straight games. Kansas City has won eight of those 10 matchups with half of them coming on the road. Not too much has changed between these two teams so we know what we are getting when they meet up, though this year could be the first time Mahomes looks normal as it does appear there is something wrong (possibly injury-wise).
Over 52 (-110) / Under 52 (-110)
2021 KC OVER IS 4-5-0
2021 LV OVER IS 4-4-0
As mentioned, not a lot has changed both teams have been consistent over the past few years. This week’s number is right in the middle as the over has peaked at 56.5 last year and “bottomed out” with 46 points in 2016. The average O/U number has been around 50.5 – 51 points with the over hitting only four 4 times in the past ten matchups. Whenever one of the numbers does hit it has hit by a big margin as only one was the O/U decided by less than a point. The rest of the games has been a touchdown or more.
Trends To Watch
Kansas City Chiefs
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four games.
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four games as favorites.
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four games on grass.
0-7-0 ATS in the last seven after gaining less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
0-4-1 ATS in the last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Las Vegas Raiders
10-0-1 is the OVER in their last eleven games when home underdogs.
6-0-1 is the OVER in their last seven games at home against a team that is above .500.
7-1-0 is the OVER in their eight games at home.
6-1-0 is the OVER in their seven games following a straight up loss.
5-1-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
Head-To-Head
7-2 is the HOME team ATS in the last nine matchups.
6-2 is the OVER in the eight games in Oakland / Las Vegas.
22-10 is the UNDER in the last 32 games.
The Plays
All Odds are as of November 10th @ 8:30 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgement.
The Spread: Chiefs (-2.5, -115) @ Raiders (+2.5, -105) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Chiefs (-140) @ Raiders (+155)
The Raiders of late are in a spiral, losing their head coach, then a receiver getting most likely getting charged with a DUI, and now the latest news (nothing really to do with the team) is Gruden is now suing the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell, oh and they also laid a huge egg losing to the New York Football Giants, but they now head home to take on a struggling Chiefs team in their own right but that doesn’t mean they are the better team. I truly feel the Raiders are the better team and fatigue is an issue for the Chiefs as they have had two back to back Super Bowl runs and still have yet to have their bye week. Again mix that with I really think the Raiders are the better team there is great value with the home underdogs where they are 3-1 this season and 1-0 as an underdog. Let’s roll with Vegas and keep the winning going!
THE PICK: Raiders (+155)
Over 52 (-110) / Under 52 (-110)
A lot of this number is going to be what to make of Patrick Maholmes. Is he due to break out of his slump? Sure but he hasn’t shown much in terms of breaking it. The Raiders offense is one of the best in the league but Kansas City defense has been stepping up holding teams 17 points or less in three of the last four games. There are just too many question marks this week to pick a side in terms of a total. I will be passing on it this week.
THE PICK: PASS
Bonus: None
Week 9 TEN @ LAR Recap:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: Pass
Moneyline: Pass
O/U: PASS
Bonus Play: S. Michel ANYTIME Touchdown +300 WIN
2021 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 2-3-0 (+0.40 Units)
Over / Under: 2-2-1 (-0.22 Units)
Bonus Plays 3-0-0 (+5.07 Units)
Overall: 7-6-1 (+4.25 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)