Sunday Night Football Betting Guide
Week 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
Football is officially back! Kickoff started on Thursday with Bills Mafia taking down the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams in L.A. Are the Bills for real? Only time will tell. This week Brady’s Bunch will take on Dak and Dem Boys to start off the Sunday NIght Football Slate. WIll Brady finally take a step back? Will Tony Pollard take over the RB1 position in Dallas? Let’s not wait and let’s dive in because baby it’s Sunday Night!
Sunday Night Football – 9/11
AT&T Stadium – Arlington Texas
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (0-0-0)
Weather: 81 degrees, 9-10 MPH winds, 0 % chance of precipitation (DOME)
8:20 p.m. EST; TV: NBC
All Odds are as of September 10th @ 11:30 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
The Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5, -115) vs Cowboys (+2.5, -105) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
2022 TB 0-0-0
2022 DAL 0-0-0
These two teams opened up the NFL season last year with Tampa Bay celebrating their Super Bowl victory in Tampa with the home team winning 31-28 (DAL covered +10). Over the last ten matchups the underdog has covered the last six with Tampa Bay covering the last 5 prior to last season, with Dallas then covering as a favorite to round out the last 10 matchups. Over the last 10 games the spread has been on average 5.5-6 points. With the highest being 12.5 (2006; DAL favored and covered), and the lowest being 1 (2015; TB favored and covered).
Money Line (ML): Buccaneers (-140) @ Cowboys (+120)
2021 TB 0-0-0 (0-0-0 Away; 0-0-0 Home)
2021 DAL 0-0-0 (0-0-0 Away; 0-0-0 Home)
This is not a matchup Tampa Bay likes to see, as they only won two of the past 10 matchups against Dallas, but they are 1-0 with Tom Brady as QB, as he looks to make it 2-0 on Sunday Night. Overall in the past 10 matchups Dallas is 8-2 with 5 of those eight games coming at home in Jerry’s World, as they look to make it 6 wins in a row at home against Tampa Bay.
Over 50 (-110) / Under 50 (-110)
2021 TB 0-0-0 IN OVERS
2021 DAL 0-0-0 IN OVERS
Expect fireworks Sunday as when these two meet points are to be scored, only twice they scored less than 21, and 3 times less than 26 TOTAL. You would think the OVER is a must but it has only hit three times in the past 10 games with it hitting last year (O52.5) and then back in 2009 (40) and 2006 (38.5). The average total has been between 40-40.5 well below Sunday’s total. Only this week and last season’s total has been this high going over 50 points, with the low being 38.5 (2006). In the past ten games the Over is 3-7 and has gone under in twice in the past five games in Dallas.
Trends To Watch
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-1 Is the OVER in TB last eight games in September
5-1 is the OVER in TB last six games in WEEK 1
4-1 is the OVER in TB last five games on TURF
1-4 is TB in the last five games ATS on TURF
6-2 is the UNDER in TB last eight games against the NFC
Dallas Cowboys
7-0 is DAL in the last seven games ATS as a HOME UNDERDOG
5-1 is DAL in the last six games ATS as a UNDERDOG
13-3 is DAL in the last 16 games ATS against the NFC
4-1 is the OVER in the last five games in September
4-1 is the UNDER in the last five games on TURF
Head-To-Head
5-0 is the UNDERDOG ATS in the last five matchups
4-0 is the UNDER in the last four games in DAL
6-1 is the ROAD team ATS in the last seven matchups
5-1 is the UNDER in the last six matchups
4-1 is TB in the last five games ATS
The Plays
All Odds are as of September 10th @ 11:30 AM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5, -115) vs Cowboys (+2.5, -105) – Read Mario’s against-the-spread article here
Money Line (ML): Buccaneers (-140) @ Cowboys (+120)
Plain and simple Tampa Bay is better than Dallas in almost every aspect of the game. The Bucs should be the favorite and rightfully so, Dallas as the home underdog is enticing but at +120 I don’t like the value, and the same goes for Tampa Bay at -140 as they could easily lose this game as well and I do not like playing that much juice. I would advise shopping around as TB can be had -130 at some books. I would stay away from the ML but if you like Tampa Bay play the spread as it’s under the key number 3, if you like Dallas try to find 3 or 3.5 to get above the key number.
THE PLAY: PASS
Over 50 (-110) / Under 50 (-110)
What is not to like about each of these teams? Both teams are high profile offenses and history has proved when they play they score. Last year, though a small example proved neither QB needed much preseason action to show they are ready to go week 1 as they blew the over out. History also favoros the over when both these teams play early on in the season as the trends show. THe only question mark is how will Dallas adjust to not having Cooper as they did lose a major offensive weapon, and as mentioned will Zeke be Zeke or have we seen the beginning of the end?
THE PLAY: OVER 50
2022 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Money Line: 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Over / Under: 0-0-0 (-0.00 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Overall: 0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2021 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 5-5-0 (-0.27 Units)
Money Line: 5-6-0 (+1.50 Units)
Over / Under: 5-7-1 (-2.49 Units)
Bonus Plays 7-5-0 (+6.79 Units)
Overall: 22-23-1 (+5.53 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 21-20-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 20-19-0 (-1.87 Units)
Money Line: 12-11-0 (+7.90 Units)
Over / Under: 20-14-1 (+4.06 Units)
Bonus Plays 11-8-0 (+6.86 Units)
Overall: 63-52-1 (+16.95 Units)