Super Bowl LVI 2021-2022 Betting Guide
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
It’s time for the biggest game of the year! Obviously, instead of going through my best bet for each matchup, I’ll give an opinion on each way to bet the game, including props!
As always, make sure you follow Mario’s ATS Plays for the weekend as well.
All Odds are as of February 9th @ 7:00 PM EST via DraftKings Sportsbook, Please Review Any Line Movement & Use Proper Judgment.
Cincinnati Bengals (13-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (15-5)
Sunday 6:30 P.M. EST; TV: NBC
Weather: 74 Degrees, 5-6 MPH, 0% Chance of Rain
The Spread: Bengals (+4.5, -110) vs Rams (-4.5, -110)
2021 CIN 13-7-0 ATS
2001 LAR 10-10-0 ATS
Not that history happens much when it comes to the Super Bowl or at all for that matter since the last time these two met Jared Goff and Andy Dalton were behind center so history is basically history is nonexistent, but for argument sake the Rams are 2-1-1 ATS dating back to 2007. The Rams are 1-1-1 at home and 0-1-1 on the road which this game is though it is their home field and a “neutral site”. In the four games played over the past 15 years the Rams have been a favorite only once (2019) and covered. The Bengals have been favorites three times going 1-1-1. The average spread has been between 9.5 – 10.
Money Line (ML): Bengals (+170) @ Rams (-200)
2021 CIN 13-7-0 (7-3-0 Away; 6-4-0 Home)
2021 LAR 15-5-0 (8-2-0 Away; 7-3-0 Home)
As mentioned, the past is not too relevant when it comes to these two teams as so much has changed over the past 3 years let alone the past 15, but the Bengals are 3-1 straight up and are 2-1 as favorites, the Bengals are also 2-1 home (this game is their “home” game) dating back to 2007. Unfortunately not much more history these two have over the years to give more info to give more info.
Over 48.5 (-110) / Under 48.5 (-110)
2021 CIN 8-12-0 IN OVERS
2021 LAR 10-9-1 IN OVERS
When these two meet points come at a premium as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four matchups. The highest has been 48.5 back in 2019 matching the Super Bowl total. Twice the under has been hit by under a touchdown while the other two times have been under 6 points. The average total has been right on 43.5 well below this weekend’s game by 5 points, with the lowest being 38.5.
Trends To Watch
Cincinnati Bengals
4-0 is the UNDER in the last four games.
5-0 is the OVER in the last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
4-0 is the UNDER in their last four games following an ATS win.
5-0 is the UNDER in their last five playoffs games as an underdog.
7-0 is the UNDER in their last seven playoff games.
Los Angeles Rams
4-1 is the UNDER in the last five games after rushing for less than 90 yards in their previous game.
6-2 is the UNDER in the last eight games on turf.
27-10-1 is the UNDER in the last thirty-eight games as a favorite.
5-2 is the UNDER in the last seven games after gaining more than 250 yards in their previous games.
5-2 is the OVER in the last seven games after gaining more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Head-To-Head
5-0 is the UNDER in the last five matchups.
3-1-1 is the favorite ATs in the last five matchups.
3-1-1 is the HOME TEAM (BENGALS IN THE CASE) ATS in the last five matchups.
3-1-1 are the RAMS ATS in the last five matchups.
The Plays
*All Game Plays are 1 Unit risked. All prop bets are .5 Units risked*
The Spread: Bengals (+4.5, -110) vs Rams (-4.5, -110)
Once this game opened at 3.5 I was on the Bengals. Now that it has moved a full point I’m all in on the Bengals. Though the key number is normally 3 / 3.5 a score of 24-28 could be in the works where that full point can come into play where now 62% is on the Bengals to cover. If it falls backs to 3.5 I would be hesitant to back Cindy, and I would pass on the spread all together. Grab the extra point while you can!
THE PLAY: Bengals +4.5, -110
Money Line (ML): Bengals (+170) @ Rams (-200)
Full disclosure: I can see the Bengals winning this game. The only thing holding me back is the game the Bengals played where they gave up 9 sacks and somehow won a playoff game. The only difference is they are going against a better defense and a much better QB in Matt Stafford. At +170 I don’t think there is enough value on Cincy but I can’t blame the 76% backing them on the money line, there just isn’t enough value for a team that has a high liability of not protecting their quarterback.
THE PLAY: PASS
Over 48.5 (-110) / Under 48.5 (-110)
When Vegas knows they know…. The number is the perfect spot that makes me want to avoid it. As I mentioned above I can see a score of 24-28 that hovers right around this weekend’s total. This can be a defensive struggle in ways where the Rams would have to carry the over I feel, but if the Rams pull ahead they can just run the ball and control the clock, or it can be a high-scoring back-and-forth game and be well over 70 points. For that reason of it being able to play both ways I am going to pass on the total.
THE PLAY: PASS
PROPS
M. Stafford OVER 5.5 Rushing Yards -105
M. Stafford OVER 2.5 Rushing Attempts -115
This is my number one prop on the board. In the three playoff games this year, Stafford rushed for 22, 6 & 8 in each game respectively. To go along with that he has 6, 4 & 5 attempts respectively. In the regular season he has one game of six attempts and one game with five, the rest have been 3 or less in the remaining 15 games. Three games he has rushed for 10 or more yards, in the other 14 games he has not rushed for more than 2 yards. The point I’m trying to get at is the playoffs are different than the regular season and when something needs to be made out of nothing Stafford will keep the play alive to get what is needed to make a sack into a first down or a manageable play upcoming. If Stafford gets at least ten yards and they have the lead late, remember kneel downs count as a rush attempt and we can sweep both here.
O. Beckham Anytime Touchdown +140
This one might be one of the easiest to play in terms of touchdown scorers. The Bengals will likely be doing everything to stop Cooper Kupp. Stafford’s next favorite target has been Odell Beckham. For him to score any time I love the value of him finding the end zone plain and simple.
K. Blanton Anytime Touchdown +240
With all the focus being on Beckham and Kupp when the Rams are deep in the Red Zone it will leave some players open for an opportunity and with Tyler Higbee likely out, the next option for a red zone threat could be Kendall Blanton.
J. Mixon Under 60.5 Rushing Yards -115
Joe Mixon, for a lack of better words is getting worn down and it’s starting to show. He has only rushed for 60 twice over the past two months (8 games) and once over the past four. Samaje Perine already slowly started to show he is going to steal some plays as he was in a lot of receiving snaps last week against the Chiefs. So if Mixon can’t get it going it might be time for some fresh legs that can help in the air and on the ground.
MPV M.Stanford (+135) or J. Burrow (+225)
This play goes in hand with who you think will win the game. Normally it’s a quarterback award and you’re getting better value at plus money on either QB to win MVP if you like the Rams roll with Stafford, if you like the Bengals roll with Burrow. To put this type of play in perspective any QB to win MVP is -275, while the next position is Wide Receiver at +300.
Championship Round Recap
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
CINCINNATI BENGALS +7.5, -110 WIN
LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5, -110 LOSS
Overall: 1-1 (-0.09 Units)
2021 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 4-5-0 (-1.18 Units)
Money Line: 5-6-0 (+1.50 Units)
Over / Under: 5-7-1 (-2.49 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-1-0 (+7.57 Units)
Overall: 18-19-1 (+5.40 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)