Divisional Round 2021-2022 Betting Guide
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
We go right back to the same format as last week where I go through each game of the Divisional Round and give my favorite pick of the matchup.
As always, make sure you follow Mario’s ATS Plays for the weekend as well.
NOTE: This article has been updated to include all of the games for the weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals (11-7) @ Tennesse Titans (12-5)
Saturday 4:30 P.M. EST; TV: CBS
Weather: 36 Degrees, 4-5 MPH Wind, 0% Chance of Precipitation
I’m cutting right to the Chase (pun intended) on this one and this game is going to be an old school run the ball grind it out type of playoff game. With Derrick Henry back and ready to roll the Titans will look to go back to what made them so successful and that’s running the ball. The line has moved up a point from 46.5 to 47.5 since Sunday so we do have a little more of a cushion to go with this weekend.
THE PICK: Under 47.5, -110
San Francisco 49ers (11-7) @ Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Saturday 8:15 P.M. EST; TV: FOX
Weather: 11 Degrees, 9-10 MPH Wind, 0% Chance of Precipitation
This was the first game I targeted when lines opened up. Not much has changed in terms of the spread as it has been at 5.5 all week, same is to be said with the total as it still is at 47 / 47.5. In terms of the money line San Francisco is +200 and offers some great value as anything can happen in the playoffs (almost) but I think with the Packers getting healthy and having the week off to prepare they will come out victorious. They reason being is simple: the Packers aren’t the Cowboys.
THE PICK: Green Bay Packers -5.5, -110
Los Angeles Rams (13-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)
Sunday 3:30 PM EST; TV: NBC
Weather: 54 Degrees, 13-14 MPH Wind, 0% Chance of Precipitation
The Rams proved last week on a Monday night who they are. A team that can shut down your most effective weapons. They have one of the best defenses in the league and that is going to bring them to where they need to become in February. Will Stafford make his mistakes? Sure, but his defense has his back. In all the years of watching Tom Brady as a Jets fan the one way you beat him is pressure (also see TB / NO game from SNF earlier in the year), and the Rams have that on both ends with Von Miller and Aaron Donald, pair that with Ramsey covering Mike Evans all day the Rams could easily take this game. Stafford will finally get his first Conference Championship appearance after all those years in Detroit!
THE PICK: Los Angeles Rams ML +125
Buffalo Bills (12-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
Sunday 6:30 P.M.EST; TV: CBS
Weather: 38 Degrees, 1-2 MPH Wind, 0% Chance of Precipitation
The rematch from last year’s AFC title game comes in the Divisional round this year. Both these teams blew out their Wild Card opponents and moved on easily. This game can very well be the “AFC Title Game” since many people think the winner will move to the Super Bowl no matter who they play. There has been no major line moves in any of the three aspects. The one thing that is surprising is that 56% of the public is on the visiting Buffalo Bills. I still don’t see it happening as Maholmes hasn’t lost a playoff game at home yet in his young career, and until he does I’m not giving up faith that this Chiefs team is getting hot at the right moment and when they need to be I’ll fade the public and take KC giving less than a FG.
THE PICK: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5, -110
Note: If Movement makes KC become an underdog (very unlikely) they would also be a play to make as well so keep an eye out for that as Sunday Night comes closer.
Wild Card Weekend Recap
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -8.5, -110 WIN
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS ML +145 WIN
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +3.5, -110 WIN
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +12.5, -110 LOSS
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +5, -110 LOSS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ML +185 LOSS
ARZ / LAR OVER 49.5, -110 LOSS
Overall: 3-4 (-0.73 Units)
2021 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 2-3-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 4-6-0 (+0.25 Units)
Over / Under: 4-7-1 (-3.40 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-1-0 (+7.57 Units)
Overall: 14-17-1 (+3.30 Units)
2020 Prime Time Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Spread: 9-9-0 (-0.87 Units)
Money Line: 4-3-0 (+4.5 Units)
Over / Under: 8-5-0 (+2.18 Units)
Bonus Plays 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Overall: 20-18-0 (+2.82 Units)
2019 Prime Time Record:
Spread: 6-5-0 (-0.73 Units)
Money Line: 3-2-0 (+1.95 Units)
Over / Under: 7-2-0 (+4.37 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-0 (+3.07 Units)
Overall: 20-9-0 (+10.12 Units)
Overall Prime Time Record:
Spread: 15-14-0 (-1.60 Units)
Money Line: 7-5-0 (+6.45 Units)
Over / Under: 15-5-0 (+6.55 Units)
Bonus Plays 4-3 (+0.07 Units)
Overall: 40-27-0 (+11.46 Units)