This quarterbacks column is multi-part preview with a new quarterback – or set of quarterbacks being released daily. To read the introduction, please visit the first post in the series.
I wrote approximately 800 words on a single quarterback in my first writeup (Deshaun Watson). I think it’s fair that I combine the next three.
It isn’t about the word count that forces this trio together, however, but the story that will be written based on their successes or failures. For at least the next calendar year, Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Patrick Mahomes will be intertwined.
To recap – worth doing because of how crazy this carousel ride was – Mahomes was drafted as the successor to Alex Smith in Kansas City. Smith just completed his fifth season with the Chiefs. All five were winning seasons, and four – including last year – featured double-digit wins. But, Smith is no longer young, and contingency plans must be made. Mahomes in. Smith out.
Smith to Washington, D.C.
But the Redskins already had a quarterback.
Only they didn’t like him.
No, really. The Redskins’ organization had multiple attempts to keep Kirk Cousins, but didn’t want to commit to him. I get it. Quarterbacks are the lifeblood of a franchise, but they can also bleed you dry. Best not to give insane contracts to aging ones if you aren’t fully sold on them.
The Redskins then gave an insane contract to Alex Smith.
Maybe it wasn’t insane – that can only be used to describe the contract Minnesota gave to Kirk Cousins – but it was such a blatant stabbing in the heart of Cousins that it cannot be overlooked as coincidence. Does Washington care about Cousins’ feelings? Of course not. Should they? Probably not. But can anyone deny how much of an indictment this is on Cousins? Definitely not.
One team drafted a quarterback to push out an existing one who then got the keys to the car that another driver was currently leasing.
Now that’s a story.
George R.R. Martin would be jealous.
If you’ve read my work throughout any regular season, you know I have rules that I like to follow. Another one comes into play when looking at the shuffling of quarterbacks.
Specifically, teams do not like to let quarterbacks leave. Unless there’s a reason.
There are similar analogies in other sports, too. The Tampa Bay Rays (they might have been the “Devil” Rays, at this time) let Carl Crawford walk away – to a division-mate in Boston, nonetheless – after nine outstanding seasons, four of which were All-Star caliber. In the six years that followed, he captured a total of zero All-Star appearances. Similarly, the Phoenix Suns let Amar’e Stoudemire leave via free agency to go to the Knicks after five All-Star seasons, including four consecutive to end his time with the Suns. He would return to All-Star level only once in the remaining six years of his career.
Within the same sport as the quarterback comparison, Jimmy Graham – arguably one of the two most dangerous tight ends in the league, at the time – was traded to the Seahawks after five stellar seasons with the Saints. In his New Orleans tenure, Graham caught 51 touchdowns and tallied 4,752 receiving yards in 78 games – respective per-game averages of 0.65 and 60.9. In his 43 games with Seattle, Graham’s averages dropped drastically to 0.42 touchdowns-per-game and 47.6 yards-per-game.
The reasoning is simple. Generally, teams know when to cut bait on their own players. Do some slip through the cracks? Yes. But odds are not good for a player when a team willingly allows one to leave.
The Redskins willingly let Kirk Cousins leave. The Chiefs willingly traded away Alex Smith.
Say what you will about Cousins’ numbers – fantastic – and Smith’s ability to win games – one of the best in the sport. Washington and Kansas City each felt it was important to move a player out of their systems and take on the massive risk that goes with such a decision. There’s probably a reason.
Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins are, most likely, about to collapse. The Redskins and Chiefs knew this.
Digging deeper, the overlap with Washington is curious. Obviously, the team felt that 30-year-old Cousins was not the answer, but they are turning to 34-year-old Alex Smith in what-might-be, at best, a lateral move. Even if one were to rank Smith higher than Cousins on an objective basis, selling a “bad asset” – in this case, the aging or overrated Cousins, based on Washington’s actions – is smart, but replacing it with another “bad asset” – Alex Smith, four years older and that much closer to the end of his career – is flat-out foolish.
The Redskins found a buyer, and then went shopping again. Bad decisions slide Washington and Smith to the bottom of this trio beyond this upcoming season. Might they stay afloat for a few months? Maybe. But this is an eventual loss in the making.
Elsewhere, the Minnesota Vikings were the aforementioned buyers for the “bad asset” of Kirk Cousins. The New York Knicks and Boston Red Sox were in the Stoudemire and Crawford examples, respectively. I won’t spend more time on it. The Vikings are hoping that the Redskins were wrong to let Cousins leave.
As we have established, a team is usually not wrong when assessing its own players. The buyer is.
This leaves us with the Kansas City Chiefs. The reigning AFC West champions. The franchise that has enjoyed five consecutive winning seasons, all under head coach Andy Reid. The team that drafted Patrick Mahomes and felt enough confidence in him to trade away Alex Smith.
Therein lies the risk and potential reward of this entire roller coaster. The Chiefs made a two-headed decision that muddies the waters of true intent. We could argue that Patrick Mahomes is so good that the Chiefs had no use for Smith, or we could argue that Smith, at age 34, is only going to decrease in value.
Do not confuse the two. It is possible that only one is true because only one is needed to make said move. This leads to the bigger question: if Mahomes is not ready, but Smith is rapidly declining, is it worth the gamble to pass the torch from Smith to Mahomes? Probably not. This means that, in some slight way, Mahomes has earned enough trust in Kansas City to be “the guy.”
Do I agree with it? Personally, not yet. Like Deshaun Watson, I might be slow to buying into Mahomes. He has an inhumanly strong arm, but so did Jay Cutler. He has a bevy of weapons at his disposal but, in largely the same offense over the last three years, Alex Smith averaged only 20.3 touchdowns-per-season.
What Mahomes does have, however, is a 60-year old head coach with an incredible track record among quarterbacks – Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith, and he was the man who drafted Nick Foles. Andy Reid brought Alex Smith to Kansas City and squeezed every ounce of talent out of him. It’s hard to imagine that he won’t do the same with Mahomes.
I may not be a Mahomes guy (yet), but Andy Reid is. All of these chess pieces were moved for a reason. Patrick Mahomes is the key to this trio forever tied to one another.
What really to watch: Patrick Mahomes. That’s it. Alex Smith will be fine, but not stellar in Washington. Kirk Cousins will have bulky numbers but be a disappointment in terms of winning games commensurate with said numbers. But Mahomes is the key. If we’re going for the trifecta, the play is to sell Smith, sell Cousins, and buy Mahomes. I suspect others already are on-board with this, but too many appear convinced that one of Smith or Cousins will shine. Neither will. Not for long, anyway.
Previous Writeups: Deshaun Watson
Up Next: Jared Goff