This quarterbacks column is multi-part preview with a new quarterback – or set of quarterbacks being released daily. To read the introduction, please visit the first post in the series.
Writing this column in the latter weeks of the preseason carries some risk that, by the time it reaches a reader’s eyes, some decisions might already be made. Such is the nature of a rookie fighting for a starting job.
Volatile as it may be, the rookie quarterback is the combination of nearly everything mentioned in previous writeups about the position. It is the prospect of hope and the cautionary approach. It is the future and the present. It is the unknown and, to be fair, the unknown.
Rookie quarterbacks have countless hurdles in front of them. Not only must they win the job from the incumbent – even if said incumbent is clearly a temporary solution – but deal with the expectations of a fan base and a fluid timeframe. If the current starting quarterback struggles, the chatter gets louder to bring in a replacement and start the clock on a rookie’s career. If not, the team is often faced with the decision of when to pull the plug when things are going relatively smooth.
Moving parts and question marks. There is no right answer.
The best we can do is remove fandom from the equation and act as each team’s general manager. What is in the best interest of the franchise? Then, we can step back and figure out which situation is best.
Josh Rosen (Arizona Cardinals)
I find it laughable whenever I read about Sam Bradford as a team’s listed starting quarterback. It’s a cool thought. The guy has talent. But he also has a body that betrays him whenever possible. If he isn’t injured yet, it’s because there’s still time left in the day.
Josh Rosen will play for the Arizona Cardinals in 2018, and it’s likely that he is moved into the starter’s role quite early. The excuse is always development, but many listed Rosen as the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft class. If not preparedness nor a healthy quarterback ahead of him in the depth chart, what would prevent Rosen from starting?
My commonly-cited, underrated most important element of the quarterback position: decision-making ability.
It matters more than any other singular piece of the quarterback puzzle. And it matters as much off the field as it does between the lines. Don’t agree? Then explain why Rosen was the fourth quarterback selected in the draft.
The good part about Rosen is that the proverbial chip on his shoulder is usually a positive characteristic of a quarterback. It’s a tough position to play, and it requires an even tougher attitude. Rosen has it. Which makes him arguably the most intriguing of the four top-ten quarterbacks drafted in 2018. His strength might also be his downfall. A modern-day comic book superhero in the flesh.
What the Cardinals should do, short-term: The Cardinals have no reason to rush Rosen to the field because he will be there soon enough. One sneeze from Bradford will send him to the operating room, and Rosen can slide in and hold onto the job as long as he wants. The operative words are “he wants,” because his maturity will need to improve if “he wants” a long career.
What the Cardinals should do, long-term: Quite frankly, there is no reason to form a longterm plan for Rosen, as the short-term one is the only that will come to fruition.
Final Analysis: Pocket passers are still king in the National Football League, and Rosen is probably the best of the four in that regard. But, I stand by the value I place on maturity, and Rosen’s lack of it will prevent him from being the best of the group.
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Many years ago, Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland Athletics, pioneered the concept of using a player’s statistics from college and the minor leagues to overrule what the metrics of one’s physical ability would suggest. Basically, front office personnel was so consumed with a player’s size, strength, and the measurable numbers that could be compared that organizations often overlooked what actually happened on the field-of-play.
Front offices throughout the sport of baseball eventually converted, but it looks like football’s decision-makers are lagging. Otherwise, how could one explain drafting Josh Allen over Josh Rosen? And, if we’re sticking with immaturity – after all, I just explained that I’m all-in with that as a marker of success or failure – Josh Allen had his own off-field issues immediately prior to the draft.
The answer is simple. The Buffalo Bills, like so many teams in the past, fell in love with the tools. They see what Allen could be, and they think they have the environment in place to help him get there.
It’s a nice thought, but it is impractical. And we’re already seeing why.
When the leading adjectives used to describe a quarterback focus on physical gifts instead of production, it takes time to reverse the narrative. Time that the Bills may not have.
As of this writing, A.J. Mccarran is already battling an injury, and it’s difficult to imagine he will hold off Allen for long, especially if the team gets off to a slow start. We will likely see Allen under center much earlier than he should be, and it will both stunt his growth as a passer and put him in a position to salvage a sinking ship. Like so many other quarterbacks of the past, an underdeveloped physical specimen is nothing more than a missed opportunity.
What the Bills should do, short-term: Sit Josh Allen for as long as possible. The Bills will have a hard time swallowing this pill, but they aren’t anywhere near Super Bowl-caliber, and I would argue that the playoffs are not even a realistic expectation for the 2018-2019 season. Whether they tear it apart or go for the home run, Allen is not the key, right now.
What the Bills should do, long-term: Surround Josh Allen with as many weapons as possible. Build the team to be as risk-reward as the quarterback, itself. Spend every resource to bring in the right coaching staff to turn a prospect into a star. It won’t be easy.
Final Analysis: It’s painfully obvious that I am down on Josh Allen. He may prove me wrong, but he’s the clear number four on my list.
Sam Darnold (New York Jets)
In full disclosure, I am a Jets fan, but trust that nothing I write about them in these columns is based on bias unless I openly – and usually jokingly – admit to it. With that being said, it will be tough to read my assessment of Sam Darnold and not think it has to do with my fandom. But, the reality is that Darnold was my top quarterback choice before the draft.
My #NFLDraft predictions/thoughts:
1. QBs go 1-2-3, #Allen might slip, #Mayfield might enter top-3
2. #Darnold is my pick, then #Rosen (I expect Darnold to have most wins over career)
3. #Browns gamble & win, taking preferred QB at 1, #Barkley at 4
4. #Giants go QB no matter what— Mario Mergola (@MarioMergola) April 26, 2018
Indeed, I was wrong on most accounts, but the point is that Darnold was the one to draft in April. In fact, Darnold was the one to draft dating back to the start of the 2017-2018 season.
Therein lies the belief in Sam Darnold. If you’ve read my work in the past, you know that I rarely waver from longterm projections. If I liked a player or a team to emerge over time, I don’t drop that opinion at the first sign of trouble. In this specific instance, Sam Darnold did nothing to lower my expectations for him over his last college football season. In fact, his stability is what made him the clear top-pick in my mind. The one I would have drafted if I were in charge of the Browns or Giants. The one I believe will be the best of the group.
Think back to September of 2017. Certainly, we knew about the depth at the quarterback position in the upcoming draft, but the player for which teams would be accused of tanking was Sam Darnold. Not Baker Mayfield. Not Josh Allen. Not Josh Rosen. Until, it was time to ‘tank’ for Mayfield. Or Allen. Or Rosen.
The only knock on Darnold was not that he played poorly, but that other options emerged. Again, if I don’t have a reason to move off an opinion, I’m not going to do so. Let the other teams fight over the other quarterbacks. The one with the statistics and physical ability to lead a team to victory was Darnold. Indeed, there were more than Darnold. But he didn’t fall off the list.
What has impressed me most about Darnold is – surprise, surprise – his awareness of the football field. He runs when he has to, and usually waits as long as possible before doing so. More importantly, he runs to open up his options, not necessarily to gain yards – in a contrast of Mayfield that I will address in his writeup.
Darnold was the complete package before the 2017-2018 college football season started, and I see no reason why that has changed. The only statistical negative to his name is the high number of interceptions. Is this ideal? Of course not. But I defend most quarterbacks who throw interceptions out of necessity of the situation. It’s a passing league, and you need to throw to win. Interceptions are a natural byproduct of this. As an aside, I cited Jimmy Garoppolo’s interception percentage in my writeup about him. It wasn’t as a negative, however. It was to illustrate that the defense was put in no worse situations under Garoppolo than it was with Hoyer or Beathard.
Physically, Darnold’s footwork does scare me a bit, but it appears to be less of a factor when he’s on-the-move. If he can keep it under control – I expect him to or the Jets to design plays better suited for him – the sky’s the limit. If, however, he is forced out of his strength and into the pocket, his turnovers might, indeed, be his fatal flaw.
What the Jets should do, short-term: The New York Jets no longer need to tank and, as a result, should focus all efforts on winning games. With Teddy Bridgewater appearing to be more-than-capable of handling an offense, there’s no need to put Darnold on the field. Start Bridgewater, field trade offers, deal him away, and then begin the Darnold era accordingly.
What the Jets should do, long-term: I’m not a believer that a quarterback needs to sit or start based on anything other than one’s own preparedness level. Josh Allen is not ready. Sam Darnold is. But, the Jets have a tradable asset in Teddy Bridgewater, so it’s in everyone’s best interest if he can improve his value before the franchise hands its keys to Darnold.
Final Analysis: Sam Darnold is and was my number one quarterback in last year’s draft. I fully expect him to be the best of the group when all is said-and-done.
Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)
I feel as if I fight the same battles year-after-year, week-after-week, article-after-article. When determining the order in which I would write about the non-rookie quarterbacks to watch in 2018, I saved Jimmy Garoppolo for last. The decision was an easy one. My opinion of him differs greatly from the populous and, as a result, I waited as long as possible before unleashing said opinion into the world.
There should be no mystery as to why I am writing about Baker Mayfield last amongst rookie quarterbacks. My opinion of him differs greatly from the populous and, as a result, I waited as long as possible before unleashing said opinion into the world.
Looking back to the night of the 2018 NFL Draft one more time, there was still some speculation as to how the Cleveland Browns were going to spend both of their top-four picks. The ideal combination would have been Saquon Barkley and one of the top-three quarterbacks, but selecting Barkley first largely takes the quarterback decision out of Cleveland’s hands. If the Browns truly pegged one of the four as ‘The Franchise Quarterback,’ it was best to act aggressively and take him first overall. The Browns did.
I believe they made the wrong choice.
Baker Mayfield is another prototype. He’s insanely athletic, dominated statistically in college, and won games. In a sense, you could almost argue that he is the polar opposite of Josh Allen. The issue, therefore, is that Mayfield’s “prototype” is one that does not typically produce long, winning careers in the National Football League.
Most critics of Mayfield will cite his size as the factor that will most limit him. I disagree. And so do some others. But those who don’t worry about Mayfield’s height draw lazy comparisons to Russell Wilson, and this is where I screech to a stop.
Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield are nowhere near the same type of player. Wilson is, along with Andrew Luck, possibly the smartest man on the football field at any given time. He is a wizard of manipulating a defense with his legs, only to win with his arm. The combination of field awareness and a desire to pass is what separates Wilson from most of the quarterbacks throughout the league, and it is this exact pairing that is missing in almost every draftee that gets compared to such a talent.
Once again, if we’re looking at the night of the draft and remembering the debate over the ranking of the four eventual top-ten quarterbacks, the same subtle hints were dropped regarding the most damaging characteristic of a quarterback. Buried within the laundry list of compliments were a few areas in which he needed to improve. One is his maturity.
How many times do I have to write it before it finally grabs hold? A quarterback must always make good decisions on-and-off the field. There is rarely an example of the face-of-a-franchise entering said organization with an immature attitude and growing into a respected leader who also wins games. Instead, it’s more closely related to the career path of someone like Jay Cutler, who was praised for his arrogance and ‘moxie’ as a quarterback, only to be sent to Chicago as soon as the Broncos could find a buyer. Cutler’s tenure in Denver – the team that traded up in the draft to select him – lasted only three years and ended with a Pro Bowl selection. Still, Denver let him loose.
Immaturity never works at the quarterback position. Neither does another characteristic that Mayfield holds.
He scrambles.
I know, I know. His passing numbers in college were prolific. He isn’t your true “running quarterback.” I get it. I’ve heard it all.
I don’t care.
The problem with my view of Mayfield is that he is improperly labeled. I can’t call him a “scrambling quarterback” for the points I just listed. He isn’t exactly Robert Griffin III or Michael Vick, but he still shares some negative similarities with them.
Baker Mayfield, like Griffin and Vick, looks to run far too early in his progression. I cannot stress enough how this is often overlooked but immensely telling. Is his first read to run? No. But, too many times, it’s his second option. It should always be a quarterback’s last option.
Using Russell Wilson one more time – and completely tearing away the false similarities between the two – a quarterback who runs with a second read is forgoing the arm to use the legs. Wilson – and others like Aaron Rodgers – use their legs solely to prolong the opportunity to pass. Mayfield – and others like Jameis Winston – use their legs solely to escape going through the progressions at the risk of staying in the pocket for too long. Except, once these players leave the pocket, they aren’t reestablishing one to then deliver a strike. They’re taking off to try to gain yards with their legs.
This doesn’t work in the National Football League. Indeed, those who argue against my label of Mayfield as a “scrambler” might technically be right. But the message is still the same. Is he a “bailer” because he breaks the pocket too quickly? Is he a “run-first” quarterback because he will take any opportunity to gain rushing yards at the risk of an incompletion? Or is Mayfield, like so many others, the ideal college quarterback who will suffer from the transition to the National Football League?
Mayfield will win some games. His positives are legitimate, and I always give a boost to quarterbacks who have found ways to compile victories against-the-odds. Still, he has two critical negatives that franchises always beg can be corrected, but rarely are. And these negatives draw frightening comparisons to another quarterback whose college prowess meant nothing when immaturity and running tendencies emerged naturally: Johnny Manziel.
What the Browns should do, short-term: Baker Mayfield being asked to save the Browns feels too eerily similar to previous episodes in this series for me to ignore the most likely outcome. The bigger issue is that I can’t envision a scenario in which Tyrod Taylor holds off the feverish push for Mayfield to get into the game. But, for now, I would probably try to prolong the Mayfield era as much as possible.
What the Browns should do, long-term: Unfortunately, because I don’t believe in Mayfield as the future answer for Cleveland, I’m not opposed to the Browns continuing their search for a quarterback in subsequent drafts. I know this is an unpopular approach, but quarterbacks win in the National Football League and, until it is proven that a team has one, it must keep looking. In addition, Mayfield’s style-of-play might not lead to him starting all 16 games, each year, so the Browns can deliver the narrative that they need depth at the most important position in football to allow them to continue drafting viable options.
Final Analysis: I’ll let Mayfield prove me wrong, but I’m not buying into him. I don’t know why teams keep insisting that gaudy numbers and ‘attitude’ can help mask imperfections, immaturity, and a play-style more suited for college than the NFL. Perhaps Mayfield will be different. I doubt it. Just remember this repeated mistake if he does, indeed, fail.
Previous Writeups: Deshaun Watson, Alex Smith/Kirk Cousins/Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, Jimmy Garoppolo