This quarterbacks column is multi-part preview with a new quarterback – or set of quarterbacks being released daily. To read the introduction, please visit the first post in the series.
I’m sitting in a chair a table with a laptop in front of me and a cup of coffee to my left. A few inches closer than the coffee sits a trio of magazines. Flanking the right of my computer is a notebook and pen.
I lean back and interlock my fingers. Flipping the palms of my hands to face the screen, I hear audible pops in my knuckles. Then I glance, once more, at the list of names in my notebook, allowing my eyes to find the only quarterback without a checkmark next to his name. The only one missing a writeup.
It’s not that I don’t want to write about him. I do. And I have. Many times. It’s that the gravity around him is moving objects with such force that either I or seemingly every other human being on the planet will be spectacularly wrong. I don’t envision a scenario in which we coexist.
The bigger problem is that I cannot pinpoint exactly why, this time, it’s different. Which means I also cannot pinpoint the approach to take. I don’t know how to convince an army that it might be wrong. I also don’t know what it will take for me to be convinced that I’m wrong.
I cannot wrap my head around the phenomenon that is Jimmy Garoppolo. He is an enigma. Therefore, I feel as if I need to treat him as multiple, separate people.
It starts with Jimmy Garoppolo, the backup quarterback to Tom Brady in New England. Count two points in his favor if we’re creating a list of pros and cons. Not only is learning under Brady and head coach Bill Belichick probably one of the most fortuitous situations imaginable, but he did so in a position of hope.
People love hope. Which is why people usually love the backup quarterback. The imagination thrives on ‘what-could-be’ in the absence of ‘what-is,’ even if “it” is currently excellent. Don’t believe me? Join any fantasy baseball league with at least 12 people, and you’ll usually find at least one owner going nuts over prospects – often times, it’s me. Why? Because the unknown of the prospect creates the illusion of a higher ceiling than the known of a player whose abilities have reached their maximum capacity.
It didn’t matter that Garoppolo’s presence on the field meant Tom Brady would be absent. When this actually came to fruition, it was known to be temporary – which is, again, why the backup quarterback is so revered, since there is usually not a threat to the incumbent. In fact, Belichick openly scoffed about the idea of replacing Brady with Garoppolo after Brady’s suspension would be served.
To repeat, Belichick, a man who so rarely shoes any emotion and the head coach of both players in question found it laughable that one would push aside the other.
It is at this point in our narrative that we must step away from a linear path. Everything prior to ‘the scoff’ will be considered the “backup Jimmy period.” I suspect, this is where the multiple personalities of Garoppolo begin to take form. Because, if we were to chart this, it would look like rain running off an umbrella. One central point feeding many. The definition of a ‘story with legs.’
We just discussed hope and how it relates to a player before emerging as an actual star or dud. But, imagine if a player existed that also carried the hope of revenge. This is where Garoppolo, the avenger, was born.
We have now seen decades of dominance by a surly character who perfectly fits the mold of an evil villain. This villain may have our respect, but certainly not our sympathy. When he fails, the football-watching world largely rejoices – obviously, fans of his team notwithstanding.
In the Garoppolo saga, supervillain Belichick pulled back his cutoff hoodie and cackled – not quite – at the arrogance of the suggestion that a certain quarterback might be better than his own. Wouldn’t most people want to see this villain eat his words? “Avenger” Garoppolo holds that potential. If he succeeds, those who hate the Patriots – there are quite a few – will point to that moment and scoff right back at Belichick for his own arrogance.
Then there’s Garoppolo, the Patriot. If you don’t hate New England, as a team, you can’t help but be awed by it. This same evil villain to many is also a hero to some. And those who revere what Belichick has done also believe that his golden touch will extend to Garoppolo.
In the same universe, it’s possible that both versions win. The haters can have their revenge in the form of spiting Belichick, but the supporters will claim victory, as well, if another product of Belichick blossoms into a star. Either way, if Garoppolo wins, so do both sides. But, if he fails, the majority – the fans of 31 other teams – miss their chance for revenge and, consequently, lose. People don’t like to lose. Which is why these same people are pulling for Garoppolo to win.
And then there’s Garoppolo, the savior. The man who stood in for the suspended Brady and won both of his starts. The man who took over a 1-10 49ers squad and led them to five consecutive victories to close out, last year. The man who is credited with “turning around a franchise.”
This is where I start to crack. These are the raindrops that I will not allow to flood my mind. To this point, I’m trying my hardest to remain neutral. But this is the moment I dreaded when cracking my knuckles and walking into this dark alley.
One could explain away the first few points upon which I touched. There is a real element to both the New England bias – that products of Belichick are viewed differently than others – and the potential spite for a villain. But this is where reality begins to separate from perception. And it’s where I always draw the metaphorical line.
Jimmy Garoppolo did not “turn around” anything. He took over a horribly bad offense that was led by a disastrous collection of stopgap options. None were expected to lead the 49ers to victory in the longterm.
And every single player in the locker room knew it. Read that again, and let it marinate. Not one member of the 49ers expected Brian Hoyer or C.J. Beathard to be ‘the one.’ If you believe that each individual in the National Football League gives 100 percent effort 100 percent of the time, you are sadly mistaken. And you have not been watching as closely as you should.
By the time Garoppolo arrived, trumpets were blaring in his honor and the chorus was begging for his era to begin. The same players who were going-through-the-motions with Hoyer and Beathard could not escape the promise that a longterm solution at the quarterback position brought them. Any real longterm solution. And, after a few months of being the punching bag for the league, the idea of competing finally woke up the sleeping giants. Were San Francisco’s players suddenly good? Of course not. But they were motivated for the first time, all season.
If you need statistics to support this point, look no further than the defense’s sudden interest in playing football. The 49ers allowed 25.6 points-per-game in their first eleven contests – without Garoppolo as the starter. Since the changeover at quarterback, the defense allowed 19.8 points-per-game. To illustrate this gap, the pre-Garoppolo defense would have ranked 30th in the league. Post-Garoppolo San Francisco would have ranked ninth.
“Mario,” you say, “that’s easy to explain. The defense improved because the offense stopped turning over the ball.”
Funny you should point that out, dear reader. One would think that Garoppolo, based on hype alone, was more careful with the ball than his counterparts. In reality, Garoppolo’s 2.8 interception percentage – total-interceptions-per-total-pass-attempts – was the worst of the three 49ers quarterbacks.
The defense didn’t improve because of Garoppolo’s talent. It improved because, in addition to the aforementioned ‘potential future,’ the end of a losing season where next year’s jobs are being decided was rapidly approaching. The defense was doubly motivated to care.
This leads us to the final version of Jimmy Garoppolo: the perfect one. In his seven career starts, Garoppolo is a “perfect” 7-0. Not a single blemish to his name.
And people constantly cite this as a predictor of future success.
I get it. Much like hanging one’s hat on the idea of the backup quarterback, it’s easy to assume future results from past performances. And don’t worry, nobody is insane enough to pencil in the 49ers for a 16-0 record this year because we can extrapolate a perfect winning percentage over any number of games and still get a perfect record. People aren’t going that far. But, 12-4 should do. Maybe 11-5 if San Francisco rests some starts in Week 17.
Right. It’s always that easy.
What bothers me most about this particular thread of the Garoppolo lore is that it isn’t only being used by the general fan. I’m hearing professional analysts cite this “7-0 record” as the foundation for the rocket launch of the 2018-2019 season. And these are analysts I respect!
I completely understand if a 49ers fan wants to lose his or her mind with excitement. I totally get the idea of looking at the teams who finished last year on a hot stretch and trying to find some value for this year. I do that, too. But we aren’t talking about discovering ‘sleepers’ where others haven’t looked. Intelligent minds are looking at the 7-0 record and determining that Garoppolo is ready to win. No learning curve necessary. Since he already mastered the class.
If I’m being fair, I wanted him to win his final game of last year for this exact reason. The story of a “perfect” quarterback is too good to go untold and, like gossip in a high school, if done properly, the message can be used to tilt the scales in our favor. So let them talk. As long as we don’t believe what we hear.
So let’s find the truth in the rumors.
Garoppolo’s first two wins with the 49ers were against the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans. The Bears finished the season with a 5-11 record, while the Texans ended at 4-12. Not exactly world-beaters.
The third win – against the Tennessee Titans – was more impressive, and is arguably the shining moment for Garoppolo in San Francisco. But, I cannot let a final score go unchecked, and I would be doing a disservice if I didn’t look from every angle. The biggest one, by far, being the broken play by Tennessee’s defense that allowed tight end George Kettle to take a short pass 24 yards to eventually set up the game-winning field goal. Garoppolo did, indeed, lead the winning drive, but it was largely aided by Tennessee’s collapse. Still, if I’m docking points elsewhere, I have to give one here.
On paper, Garoppolo’s fourth win is the one that ascended his status to that of a demigod. At least. He beat the Jaguars and their vaunted defense – even with the loss, Jacksonville finished second-best in both yards and points allowed. But, he didn’t just beat them. He tore them apart. San Francisco put up 44 points again Jacksonville. In the regular season, no other team eclipsed 30 points against the Jaguars. Another point in Garoppolo’s favor?
Not so fast. Points are hard-earned.
In fact, if you believe nothing else in this entire column and want to dismiss everything I wrote, do not ignore this one game. Please, I implore you.
What’s never stated about San Francisco’s victory against Jacksonville is that, precisely as the game was starting, the Tennessee Titans were officially eliminated from contention in the AFC South, handing the Jaguars the division crown in the process – and marking their first playoff appearance in a decade. Jacksonville subsequently mailed in the game in San Francisco. They quit. They had no reason to play. Indeed, pride was on-the-line, but it’s not enough against a resurgent team with no motivation until the latter weeks of the season.
It showed. The Jaguars, with a combined one giveaway over the prior three gams, turned the ball over three times, including an interception returned for a touchdown – to that point, the 49ers’ offense didn’t score 44 points against the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville also put together its third-worst rushing performance of the year.
Hammering home the point, the Jaguars played another meaningless game the following week. It was against a division rival – the same Titans that conceded the division to Jacksonville one week earlier – but there was, again, nothing on the line for the Jaguars. Really. They could not move up in the seeding even with a win. And what happened? Another terrible offensive performance by the Jaguars, four more giveaways, the single-worst rushing performance of the year and, obviously a loss.
The Jaguars revert to their formerly horrible forms when playing meaningless games. Do not get fooled into thinking this is a sign of a superior opponent in said games.
The final week of the San Francisco’s season is as clear-cut as it gets, and it speaks directly to teams losing their aggression. The Rams rested their starters and were noncompetitive against the 49ers. Again, after four consecutive wins and, at the time, an unblemished 6-0 record, it was better for the future of my argument for him to win in Week 17. He did, and was given another false positive.
Looking at the entirety of the five-game span in which Garoppolo was the 49ers’ starting quarterback – just pause for a minute and realize how much is being made out of only five games – it’s quite possible to dismiss every single one. Is that reasonable? Of course not. But they also aren’t proof of anything. Unless we’re strictly referring to the overreactive nature of the football-watching world.
Which brings us to now. The present. The long-awaited beginning of Jimmy Garoppolo’s career as both a starting quarterback and face of a franchise – as a side note, Garoppolo is widely beloved for his looks, and it definitely plays a role in the adoration he is receiving. Every other version of this legend will be forgotten based on what happens next.
Shortly, there will be only the one Jimmy Garoppolo. And, while I still can’t exactly explain why so many people with so many different motives all expect said Garoppolo to be the ‘great’ version, I certainly look forward to seeing how quickly these minds will change if it doesn’t happen.
For me, I’ll be sitting back in my chair, coffee off to one side with notes on the other, writing about the next Matt Cassel.
And the next Jimmy Garoppolo.
What really to watch: The force and aftermath of Garoppolo’s regression. Even the most optimistic of 49ers fans can’t buy into a 16-0 season for the team, so how far back to earth does Garoppolo’s team fall? 10-6? 8-8? 4-12? And how quickly? Does he continue his unbeaten streak through September and then hit a wall? Or does an offseason without momentum reset the progress immediately? Garoppolo will go through tough times. We’ll be ready for them. But we also need to take note of how he responds.
What I failed to mention in these thousand words about a quarterback I don’t particularly find impressive is that he is in the perfect environment to learn, partially soften his fall, and rebound from it. His head coach, Kyle Shanahan, worked wonders with Matt Ryan during his time in Atlanta, and it’s already clear by Shanahan’s scheme and playcalling that he is approaching Garoppolo correctly. It will be interesting to see how many times Shanahan calls upon his quarterback to win a game or if he keeps the ‘kid gloves’ on as long as possible. Like Belichick, Shanahan knows his player, and how he handles him after a full offseason together will be a good indicator of how ready Garoppolo is.
Previous Writeups: Deshaun Watson, Alex Smith/Kirk Cousins/Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck
Up Next: The Rookies – Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen