This quarterbacks column is multi-part preview with a new quarterback – or set of quarterbacks being released daily. To read the introduction, please visit the first post in the series.
Jared Goff is the NFL. More specifically, Jared Goff is the NFL fan.
In two seasons – one of which was a half-season – we have seen two completely different versions of Jared Goff. The first was as a rookie in an 0-7 campaign the fall after being selected before any other player in the 2016 NFL Draft. The second was last year, which produced a Pro Bowl selection, nearly 4,000 yards passing (he would have broken the milestone had he played all 16 games), 28 touchdowns and only seven interceptions – the same amount that he threw in the seven games of the 2016-2017 season.
This makes sense, right? A player was selected highly – first overall, in Goff’s case – and struggled mightily in his first year, only to develop as a potential superstar should. We all get it. We accept and anticipate growth.
Wrong.
Even though we might say these things and discuss development as if we fully support growing pains, it’s all a facade. Almost everyone discarded Jared Goff after his first season in the NFL. The label of “bust” was thrown around as recklessly as some of his passes in his rookie year. Both were inaccurate.
The collective view of Jared Goff cannot possibly be more different entering year three than it was, last offseason. Goff is being heralded as one of the game’s emerging stars, and it’s easy to see why. His head coach is young (read: easy to capture a new audience), his team won 11 of his 15 starts, and, if you didn’t see him play as a rookie, you wouldn’t even know to hesitate before falling in love.
We did see him play as a rookie. And we are not so quickly to be swayed.
The reality is that every reason why Jared Goff succeeded, last year, should remain valid and intact for this season. His coach is still young and improving, his team is good, and he has proven that he can play in the National Football League.
Of course, nothing is blatantly straightforward from year-to-year in this sport. Jared Goff, himself, proved that.
Rams head coach Sean McVay burst onto the scene and orchestrated the league’s top-scoring offense with Jared Goff. Yet, when the team reached the postseason and needed to rise to the occasion – at home, nonetheless – it put forth its third-worst offensive performance of the year. Like most, I’m a McVay fan, and I featured him heavily in last year’s preseason article about the Rams eventually turning around their fate. But, like Goff, McVay still has to grow.
The team did grow. At least, on paper. The Rams are not hiding the fact that they are ‘all-in’ for this season, and much of this aggressive behavior can be attributed to Goff’s impressive sophomore year. But therein lies the problem.
It’s perfectly acceptable for the Rams to have believed in Goff through his dark days, but we should not so blindly cast aside those performances. Many quarterbacks have played poorly as rookies before going enjoying outstanding careers, but there is always a risk of commitment issues when the head coach and quarterback are not inherently tied to one another.
Sean McVay did not draft Jared Goff. Together, we just saw the two complete a fantastic season – especially, offensively. As a result, expectations are soaring. It’s not likely that a dip in production would be due to McVay’s influence, so what would happen if Goff strings together more mediocre than great play?
It’s unfair to suggest that McVay and Goff will split at any point, let alone have some dramatic blowout in the next few months. But the fact remains that Goff – as the quarterback – probably has the final say over what happens to McVay’s Rams. McVay and the front office, however, are pushing the gas pedal and looking to accelerate.
We saw Goff do it once, but he had the slow start to provide a springboard for such a boost. Now that he is approaching top speed, I’d argue it’s more likely that he slows down that maintains his current pace.
What really to watch: Jared Goff showing signs of subtle regression. Most are expecting Goff to fly out-of-the-gate and build off his 11-4 record as a starter, last year. I noted earlier how his lone playoff game against the Falcons was the third-lowest point output for the ’16-’17 Rams. The two games that were worse came against the Seahawks and Vikings. Goff and the Rams play the Seahawks and Vikings in Weeks 4 and 5, this year. It’s entirely possible for Los Angeles to enter Week 6 with a 2-3 record and Goff to approach last season’s total of interceptions by the end of this stretch. The sky will subsequently fall.
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