This quarterbacks column is multi-part preview with a new quarterback – or set of quarterbacks being released daily. To read the introduction, please visit the first post in the series.
I might have been wrong. I like to start there because I find nothing more powerful than proving my own steadfast beliefs wrong. And this wasn’t just an opinion. It was a hard stance.
I was never on “Team Watson.” I didn’t love what I saw as he entered the league, but it was his situation that truly concerned me. The Houston Texans were not only built on defense, but so eerily followed the pattern of the Rex Ryan Jets era in which the offense was merely in the way of the defense. My frequently-typed line was that head coach Bill O’Brien is “allergic to offense.”
When Deshaun Watson took over the starting job from Tom Savage – the fact that Savage was starting at all is still something that gives me pause about O’Brien – he followed the exact steps I would have expected. In his first start, he was limited to only 125 passing yards in a sloppy battle with the eventual 7-9 Bengals. But, his legs changed the game when he scampered 49 yards for a touchdown. The only touchdown of the matchup by either team. Still, as a quarterback, he was asked to “not get in the way.”
And then he went to New England. The Patriots undoubtedly entered the game with the desire to force the rookie to pass, but it quickly emerged into a back-and-forth slugfest that actually ended with New England needing the last strike to win.
Perhaps O’Brien saw something in that moment that finally allowed Watson to be unleashed. In the four games that followed, Watson threw at least 30 passes three times – and 29 in the other game – connecting for 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. That’s great. But I still wasn’t convinced.
In fact, I wasn’t convinced that Watson was a major player throughout any of his performances. Because I wasn’t convinced that Houston would deploy him properly.
Watson’s name was the first I listed in my notes because of his explosion over the aforementioned four-game stretch followed by a devastating season-ending injury. I knew how badly people wanted to pile on the bandwagon, and I was prepared to remain on the sidelines.
I was reading Athlon Sports’ annual Pro Football preview magazine, and it cited Pro Football Focus’ average depth of throw for every quarterback with at least 100 ‘dropbacks’ in 2017. Based on the amount of words dedicated to this player, it should not be surprising to learn that Deshaun Watson topped the list. Again, good for Watson. He broke the mold of a typical quarterback on a defensive minded team. I kept reading.
Second on the list, Drew Stanton. Interesting. Third? Jameis Winston. His lack of decision-making ability has and always will hamper him. Fourth, Russell Wilson. My favorite quarterback in the league, and precisely because of his decision-making ability. Fifth was Carson Wentz in his ridiculous sophomore campaign. And then I saw number six.
Tom Savage. The Tom Savage that threw more interceptions (6) than touchdown passes (5). The Tom Savage that threw 92 career passes prior to 2017, never connecting for a touchdown, but won the starting job. The Tom Savage whose statistics are a jumbled mess due to constantly being pulled from games. That guy, on average, ranked sixth in downfield attempts. Which really means that he ranked sixth in high risk-reward plays. Defensive-minded teams do not fare well in high risk-reward situations.
To that point, neither did Houston. It ended the year at a disastrous 4-12. But, there might be something to this subtle shift.
Deshaun Watson throwing downfield makes sense. Tom Savage does not. Still, with the same weapons but a vast disparity of talent, both Watson and Savage ranked in the top-six for this statistic. Therefore, this was not a player-by-player case, but an organizational decision to take chances. Now, Houston looks like a better landing spot for Watson.
We still have the injury with which to concern ourselves – and make no mistake, it is not an injury to be taken lightly – but I can safely say that gameplan will no longer be a hinderance to Watson. I remain cautious before completely buying in, but I can no longer sell Watson.
What really to watch: Most likely, Deshaun Watson for 2019-2020. It’s rare to see a quarterback return to form after a knee injury, and it’s even more rare to see it happen the following season. It took years for Carson Palmer and Teddy Bridgewater to fully recover to a level at which either was comfortable playing, and I can’t imagine Watson – whose legs are an important part of his game – will be as dynamic in his sophomore year as he was, last season. Remember, if you’ve read my column throughout last year and took my side of the debate, you are probably one of the few not on the bandwagon. Said bandwagon should empty as Watson struggles with his health, but we now know that the future can actually be as bright as many anticipated. We can buy when others sell.