NHL on TNT
March 9th, 2022
Washington @ Edmonton 8 P.M. EST.
Montreal @ Vancouver 10:30 P.M. EST.
By: Danny DeAngelis (Twitter: @Daily_Biscuit31)
We look to bounce back this week as three of the four teams tonight hail from Canada! Last week was disappointing as normally a 3-goal lead is never safe, but we saw both games have 2 goal leads (in our favor) end up losing in the end. Let’s not dwell on the past as this week’s games feature a lot of potential. Remember it’s never too late to get some of your future bets in so check in on our pre-season future article to get some value while you can on some of our pre-season picks mid-season!
Washington Capitals @ Edmonton Oilers 8 P.M. EST
Projected Goalies: Ilya Samsonov (WAS) @ Mikko Koskinen (EDM)
*Please Check On Closer To Gametime for Goalie Confirmation.*
Money Line: WAS +110 @ EDM -130
WAS: 30-18-7-2
EDM: 30-23-4-0
-WAS is 1-5 in their last six games against the Pacific.
-WAS is 1-4 in their last five games when playing on a B2B.
-WAS is 5-2 in their last seven road games.
-EDM is 1-5 in their last six against a team with a winning record.
-EDM is 1-4 in their last five overall games.
-EDM is 1-4 in their last five games on Wednesday.
-HOME TEAM is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Over 6.5 +105 / Under 6.5 -125
WAS: 29-26 In OVERS
EDM: 27-27 In OVERS
-OVER is 4-1 in the last five games WAS has played on a Wednesday.
-UNDER is 5-1 in the last six games EDM has played against the Metro.
-OVER is 6-2-1 in the last nine games EDM has played on a Wednesday.
Puck line: WAS +1.5, -225 @ EDM -1.5, +185
WAS: 29-28 ATS
EDM: 25-32 ATS
-Three times in the past ten matchups the -1.5 spread has been covered.
Montreal Canadiens @ Vancouver Canucks 10:30 P.M. EST.
Projected Goalies: Samuel Montembeault (MTL) @ Thatcher Demko (VAN)
*Please Check On Closer To Gametime for Goalie Confirmation.*
Money Line: MTL +165 @ EDM -205
MTL: 15-34-7-0
VAN: 28-23-3-3
-MTL is 5-1 in their last six following a WIN.
-MTL is 1-5 in their last six games on a Wednesday.
-MTL is 7-2 in the last nine games in VAN.
-MTL is 21-8 in the last 29 games overall.
-FAVORITE is 16-7 in the last 23 games.
Over 6 -110 / Under 6 -110
MTL: 30-24 In OVERS
VAN: 27-28 In OVERS
-OVER is 5-0 in MTL last five games against the Pacific.
-OVER is 6-1 in MTL last seven games against the West.
-OVER is 4-1-1 in MTL last six games when their opponent scores 5 or more in their last game.
-OVER is 4-0 in VAN last four games when the opponent allowed 2 or less goals in the previous game.
-OVER is 5-0 in VAN last five games after scoring 5 or more in their last game.
-OVER is 8-0 in VAN last eight games following a win.
-OVER is 7-0 in VAN last seven as a favorite.
-OVER is 5-0 in VAN last five games as a HOME favorite.
-OVER is 3-1-1 in the last five games in VAN.
-UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five games.
Puck Line: MTL +1.5, -145 @ EDM -1.5, +125
MTL: 26-30 ATS
VAN: 33-24 ATS
-Five times in the past ten matchups the -1.5 spread has been covered.
If it isn’t broken it shouldn’t be fixed. That is a motto to live by. Last week we broke what was fixed as we went against the trends and got burned sorta with the O/U trend in the NYR / STL game was split but stronger numbers supported the over. In Seattle / Nashville’s case there just isn’t enough info to put much stock into trends.
The Plays:
WAS / EDM OVER 6.5 +105
Once I saw this number I was leaning on the OVER regardless of trends, then when I saw it at plus money it just sealed the deal. Let’s start looking at Washington. They will be playing a second of a back-to-back on the road. Typically that is one good sign of a team fatigued leading to a lean on the OVER. The over moved slightly since Samsonov will likely be in net tonight with Vanecek starting last night, but that still isn’t enough for me to switch sides as his GAA is just under 3.00, there is also a possibility that Mike Smith and his 3.57 GAA could start tonight as well. On the other side of the ice, Edmonton last played on Monday falling to the Flames but they will have that extra day to prepare for the Capitals, and they are the Oilers and whenever you have two of the top 10 scores in the league goals are to be had. Grab this number at a nice value price as well while you can.
MTL +170 VALUE PLAY
As I mentioned two weeks ago the NHL offered a lot of value on underdogs. The Canadians have been on fire since hiring Martin St. Louis as their head coach. They have played so much better and look like a legit NHL team that made the Cup Final a year ago. This play along with recent trends makes me love the Canadians based on that alone. Also, they haven’t played since Saturday so they have had some time to recoup heading into Wednesday’s matchup. They have won seven of their past ten beating the likes of the Oilers, Flames, Maple Leafs, and the Blues. Let’s hope they can add another Canadian team to the list when we wake up Thursday from the late slate. Vancouver also had the same about of rest, also coming into this week’s game, winning seven of the last ten as well but they have struggled against teams that are in the bottom of the standings (losing to NJ, NYI, and ANA). Making the Hab’s an even more likely team to pull off the upset.
NHL National Weekly Games
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
WSH / EDM OVER 6.5 +100
MTL ML +170 VALUE PLAY
3/2/22 Recap:
STL / NYR UNDER 5.5 -105 LOSS
NASH -1.5, +145 LOSS
NASH / SEA OVER 5.5, -110 WIN
2021 Record:
All plays are 1 unit risked unless noted
Puck Line: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Money Line: 0-0-0
Over / Under: 2-1-0 (+1.00 Units)
Value Plays: 0-1-0 (-1.00 Units)
Overall: 2-3-0 (-1.00 Units)