In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
WSH/BOS – Some subtle movement in the odds for the under, but people are also shifting there. I find that important because this is a standalone game in the sense that no other puck drops are right at 7pm. Really, we don’t see a lot of times where people are sliding to the under with name value offenses at play. I’m not sure what to make of it because I can argue that it’s smart/sharp people, but there’s also the element that they’re flat-out wrong and the oddsmakers’ original read was right. Moving to the moneyline and puckline, I love the idea of a trap here, where Boston is growing less appealing by the hour. More importantly, people are all over a big win by Boston, so I think this, coupled with the under, actually leads to people fading WSH. Not sure it happens, but I’m inclined to own some offense from WSH. Let’s say it’s 3-2 WSH, but I would lean on at least two goals from each team.
TB/CHI – Another one with movement to the under, but this one does not have people following suit — or leading the way. Instead, it is probably more a tell that we are capped at 5-6 goals instead of 6-7. People are definitely convinced with TB winning, but they aren’t willing to go as far as asking for a big — 2+ goal — victory. That surprises me, especially since the odds for a win are so much less enticing than the odds for a -1.5 cover. This also doesn’t jive with how people are betting the over — if it were high-scoring, wouldn’t the favorite pull away? So, someone is wrong. Who? I’d have to think those who are picking a close game are “the most wrong.” Therefore, TB by two goals appears to be “the most right.” Call it 4-2/4-1 TB.
MIN/ARI – I always write that games including MIN drive to a lower point total, and this one is no different. It even has the extreme odds on the under, so I’m looking here for a goalie. The odds have been moving a lot throughout the day, but I simply expect this to land on the “close-score” side of the scale. 2-1 in either direction is probably right, and I’m mildly intrigued by ARI. So 2-1 Coyotes for me.
STL/LAK – Same exact setup as MIN/ARI in terms of point total and peoples’ reads of the game, so we can look for goalies here as well. The difference? People are expecting this game to be close, so I think we have a sneaky chance at one offense getting completely stymied. The problem is that the odds don’t give away that edge at all. People like STL and I get it — I generally lean on them in this type of matchup — but LAK have shown sneaky ability to play well. Overall, I might actually bump this up to 3-2 STL instead of 2-1, and it actually might move me off a goalie. Such is the purpose of writing this in a free-flow style.
ANA/COL – Low point total, but people are fine with the under here. This has to be because it’s so easy to bury ANA in this matchup. There’s no way around thinking that COL wins, and I’m not sure if people will go the extra mile and cap the Avalanche on offense like I would like to do, so this feels a little risky. My play? Use only 1-2 COL skaters. 4-1 is the most likely outcome with obviously a wide range of options built-in. I’d love to see it finish 2-1 COL where that 1-2 skater setup helped, but no one else explodes that we miss.
VGK/SJ – As always, when the odds and number are all pointing to a high score, but the point total hasn’t broken past six, I pause. I call it six on-the-nose. Operating with that, we have a clear 4-2 setup in favor of VGK. The best way to play that is to own a skater from LAK if you can nail the right one, but I also won’t go too overboard with VGK offense. I’ll play it like COL with 1-2 skater exposure.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: TB
2-4 Goals: WSH, BOS, ARI, STL, LAK, COL, VGK, SJ
Want no part of: DET, MIN, ANA, CHI