In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
WSH/BOS – A subtle shift in the odds from the over to the under leads me to believe we should expect a lower-scoring game where possibly an empty net goal pushes it to six. The good news is that people disagree, so there’s already a difference there. They are reasonably split on the winner, but love the odds of WSH pulling away, so let’s say it’s a 3-2 game in the end where I would want to lean on the Capitals — not with much conviction, unfortunately. I think the best ‘contrarian’ play would be to limit offense here.
TOR/EDM – Wild movement in the point total’s odds, but nothing is actually determined. I think people — as well as the oddsmakers — are concerned that this is the night Auston Matthews returns and this is the night that Edmonton breaks its shutout streak and this is the night we see a ridiculous offensive output. With all that, the fact that the odds were not on the over from the start — forget about Matthews, it’s not like the oddsmakers didn’t know that EDM has to start scoring eventually — makes me think that 6-7 is the cap. Sure, if we get a 4-3 game here, then fading either offense was a mistake on a six-game slate, but I’m going to play it safe and own one skater from each team and probably not more than that. Odds to win have moved in Toronto’s favor, but that’s largely from Matthews’ return. I’m going with EDM 4-2/4-3 because, again, much of this “news” was already priced into the original odds.
STL/ANA – The point total is low, as we tend to see with ANA games, but the odds aren’t showing a side. That might mean we get some sneaky offense here. I’d have to think it comes from STL, but I don’t want to go overboard with it. I’ll leave it at 3-2 STL, but part of me wants to own one skater from ANA.
MIN/VGK – Similarly to ANA, we tend to see low point totals in games with MIN. That doesn’t mean the under works every time — MIN put up four goals, alone, last time it took the ice — and we just saw a nine-goal effort between these two teams in a head-to-head overtime contest. Then again, it was really seven goals before the last minute and closer to six late in the game. There’s a slight bias to the over, and I get it, but I’ll put this as 5-6 and not much more. I like how the odds have strengthened in favor of VGK, so they are probably the right play, but MIN should be in the game. I’ll set it at 3-2 VGK but with both teams reaching at least two goals.
ARI/LAK – Odds are not hiding their desire for this game to go under, and I’m never one to argue with that strong of a lean. It’s low-scoring for me. As for the winner, we have perfectly split odds that were not originally in LA’s favor, but have shifted with the people. These same people like the game to be close and, if it’s low-scoring, that makes sense. So let’s find an edge. I’d have to think that the oddsmakers aren’t going to give a freebie with such extreme puckline odds on ARI for a reason, so the “most real” answer is probably 3-1/3-0/4-1 from LAK. If that happens, then it’s worth owning offense from the Kings.
COL/SJ – Similarly to WSH/BOS, the point total has held at six, but the odds have flipped to the under. I’ll follow the same line-of-reasoning as I did in the other game and target roughly 5-6 goals at the most. Here, though, the odds for a close game are not reasonable. COL is understandably expected to cruise, so this is probably 4-1/4-2/3-1 where, again, we have to own some skaters from COL. There is a chance that SJ competes as heavy favorites are starting to wear a little thin in recent weeks, but these teams are also heavily favored for a reason.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: EDM, LAK (maybe), COL
2-4 Goals: WSH, BOS, TOR, ANA, STL, VGK, MIN, SJ
Want no part of: ARI