In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
NJD/PHI – Interesting odds on the point total in that the number is 6, but the odds are on the under. It makes much more sense than what we normally see, but that’s the thing. We don’t normally see this. Typically, the protection is on the higher side of the number, with the only exception being an extremely low-scoring game — at which point, the under usually wins. With that being said, I have to interpret this as people expecting a low-scoring game, but the oddsmakers think it can at least get to 6. The way the game is actually getting bet does seem to confirm that. In terms of winners and losers, the favorite (PHI) has seen its odds barely move, and people are piling on over the course of the day — even if there was a momentary lapse where the support went to NJ. If we pair this with the point total, it seems like a 4-2 win for PHI is the most likely outcome, but you could potentially steal some offense from NJ if that game is 4-3/5-3. Either way, I’d cautiously want to own skaters from PHI.
FLA/CHI – Another somewhat surprising point total move in that it actually did increase, but it also flipped the odds from the over to the under. It makes sense, and it’s telling us