In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
BUF/NYR – Nice movement on the OU odds to have me thinking under the 5.5 goals is the right play. That does not necessarily jive with how people are betting, and I like it. People would probably say 4-2 NYR is the “right answer” and I would say that 2-1 is closer to the outcome. I’d even go as far as say it might be 2-1/3-1 BUF, and I’m intrigued by BUF G.
PHI/PIT – Some weird movement with the OU odds, but my eye is immediately drawn to the puckline. PHI -1.5 was over +200 and people loved it. That number has moved down, so it is possible that it hits. I’m not sure it’s overly likely, though. Either way, there has been a strong wave of support for PHI, and I am not necessarily in position to argue it. Not a ton of conviction here, but 3-2/4-2 PHI makes sense. Again, I don’t love it.
OTT/MTL – I keep writing that OTT does its own thing and doesn’t listen to the numbers, so proceed with caution. I’m a little curious as to why the point total is so high, but the odds are so strong on the under. Does that simply mean we get exactly 6 goals? Weird. What’s weirder is that the odds for a close game are identical the odds for a big win. By the same account, the odds for MTL to win are simply astronomical. I’ll set this as 3-2 MTL with a potential 4th goal on an EN.
DET/CBJ – No way around thinking low-scoring here, so I’ll target a goalie from this game. The odds are pretty split, though, and there’s some validity in saying DET wins. 2-1/3-1 DET.
NYI/NJD – Odds are on the under, but so are the people. This feels like 4-6 goals with 5-6 more likely. If that’s the case, there’s some value with one of the offenses. Which? It has to be NYI’s. The game is probably 4-2 NYI, but I won’t avoid NJD’s offense altogether — I just won’t stack it.
CAR/NSH – Missing some data, but the point total is low and odds are on the over. Call it 4-6 range as usual, and the split odds in the moneyline are helping to drive that argument. What I find most amazing is that people love the idea a close game, and they are ignoring the great odds for a big win by CAR. I think there’s a nice trap here, even if the upside is capped on offense. 3-2 NSH.
VAN/WPG – 5-7 goal range as we like to see, with potential for 7 goals pretty strong. There is an element of “be careful” here, because WPG has tallied a combined two goals in two games, but it also had ten goals in the prior two games. There is a chance for a “trap,” though. Ultimately, I like how strong the odds are for a close game, and it should end up as a 4-3 final in either direction — which puts both offenses in play. Just know that one could stall, so don’t stack the entire game. 4-3 VAN, if I had to choose.
TB/DAL – Yikes, the point total is basically screaming that it needs to be under 5.5, and I can’t argue against that. Set the expectations for offense low. I do find it interesting that the odds aren’t necessarily split — TB is a decent-sized favorite that has grown over the course of the day — but I’m stuck on the rest of this read. It seems most likely that TB wins 3-1, but I’m going to say that the “right” approach is to ignore DAL offense and mildly ignore TB offense.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: VAN, WPG
2-4 Goals: PHI, PIT, MTL, OTT, NYI, NJD, NSH, CAR, TB
Want no part of: NYR, DAL, DET, CBJ, BUF