In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
CGY/OTT – Some slight shift in the odds toward the under, and I always love to see that. It makes me believe a 4-2 game is still possible, but it’s probably through an empty net scenario. That jives with what people think, and I can’t hate it whatsoever. Give me Calgary in a 4-2 win. The only thing worth noting is that OTT has not played by the numbers lately and randomly decides to pull off upsets. Still, I don’t see it happening here, as there really isn’t much “trap” potential.
CAR/FLA – People are buying the over heavily here, and the oddsmakers are starting to create some protection in case the people are right. I’ll leave this in the 5-7 goal range, but I won’t be surprised if it gets 7-8. The odds have shifted to be completely split between the teams, and it’s almost entirely because of the people loving Florida. To win. The reality is that it probably stays close, and that leads me to the 4-3 range, where I’d have to think some offense comes from this game. Call it 4-3 FLA.
VAN/WPG – The point total is high, but the odds are on the under. I’d have to think there’s a real chance this one gets out-of-hand, but my confidence in that is low. The most likely way it happens would be if Winnipeg goes off. The reality is that the odds are a little too tight for that, so I have this closer to 3-2 WPG than anything else.
STL/ANA – Through most of my scrolling, this game appears to have the lowest point total and the one most likely to yield a goalie. The problem is that the odds are pinching together, and it’s possible that we land on the wrong side. STL was favored — still in — but the game is creeping closer to even. I’m starting to feel like this is a “trap” where ANA is the answer, but we also have to consider that Binnington is not starting for the Blues. That might be the reason for the move. I’ll keep this on the low-scoring side with a 2-1/3-2 projection, and I am cautiously leaning on STL. Feel free to roll with ANA, though, as I could be wrong.
TOR/EDM – The point total simply has to be high in this game because of the name value, and I’m not surprised. There is no data on it, though, but it’s hard to imagine anyone thinking it will be low-scoring. The same is true for the actual winner, where the odds are split. I would say that there’s a semi-“trap” in place where EDM is the right answer, but we also have injury news for Matthews driving the numbers as well as the simple shift to an even matchup. I’m going with a generic 3-2/4-2 win by EDM, and I have no problem using skaters from the Oilers.
MIN/VGK – There is a chance this game stays low-scoring, but MIN tends to get lower point totals based on name value. The odds are only now showing the potential for the under to hit, so let’s set this game in the 4-6 range. That moves me off of Vegas’ offense, as they like to explode, and I don’t see that here. Win? Probably, but more in the 2-1/3-2/3-1 range.
COL/SJ – I don’t want to blindly stack a team, but it’s hard to not love COL tonight. The point total is the only reason I have any pause, but it could be as simple as a 5-1 or 4-2 win. I don’t necessarily see that from COL’s goalie, but I have to set the Avalanche’s offensive potential in the 3-5 goal range.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: EDM, COL
2-4 Goals: CGY, CAR, FLA, WPG, VAN, TOR, VGK
Want no part of: OTT, ANA, STL, MIN, SJ