In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
WSH/NJ – A little light on data, but this feels like people will lazily just lean on yesterday’s outcome. That’s how they’re betting, anyway. But here’s what I want to see…. a change in the odds from yesterday to today with a nearly identical game — not even a venue change. So, looking there, we see…an increase in the odds in Washington’s favor. That jives. But, why? Is it because of people or is it because of the oddsmakers? Answer is probably people, as the odds were a little smaller to start the day and have since increased. I’ll take my chances again and go 3-2 Devils.
CBJ/NSH – Split odds are really throwing people off, where they are simply taking the “safety net” of a close game. That, to me, means that one team pulls away and has a 3+ goal victory. It actually looks like it should be NSH, so I’m going 3-1/4-1/3-0 NSH.
PHI/BUF – Late movement on the over-under with people switching sides — maybe sharps? hard to know — has me thinking that we scale down the ceiling a bit. I definitely like the odds strengthening for PHI, so I’m going to call this 3-2/4-2 PHI with a slight chance for a 3-2/2-0 PHI win.
PIT/NYI – Oddsmakers refused to move the actual odds on the over-under until a little while ago, so let’s call that “careful protection.” Really, the game still sets up for be within the 4-6 range, and the massive odds for a close game confirm that 3-2 is most likely. Dead-split odds on the winner, but people definitely like the juicy odds for NYI to cover the puckline. I disagree, and it’s probably PIT in the range of 4-2/4-3/3-2.
DET/CHI – People are considering this the “low-scoring game of the day,” and it makes sense. By the same token, the odds are actually pretty good that CHI cruises, so that might push the point total higher. I don’t know if a full stack is worth it, but this has the makings of a 5-1/4-2 win by CHI, and that’s intriguing.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: NSH (maybe), PIT, CHI
2-4 Goals: WSH, NJD, PHI, NYI
Want no part of: CBJ, BUF, DET