In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
Early Slate
WSH/NJD – The point total has sat on six for the entirety of the day, and that included news that Alexander Ovechkin will be available. I’m definitely capping this game at 7 goals for exactly that reason — the news had no impact on the over-under, including no impact on the odds for it. Basically everyone is expecting this to be a big win by WSH and, if you combine that with the bets on the over, they are probably thinking 5-2/5-1. Not only am I inching this closer — the odds for the game are pretty tight — but I’m also lowering the score a bit. 3-2 in either direction, where the “right” answer is probably WSH, but making it 3-2 NJD might be the winning route to a Showdown.
CGY/OTT – An abnormally large amount of movement on the point total’s odds, despite the actual over-under remaining stable. That feels like a smart, under-the-radar decision by the oddsmakers, where there is a realistic chance that it lands right on six. If that happens, then it should be exactly how everyone expects: via a two-goal — call it 4-2 — win by CGY. I have no reason to doubt it, except the wild movement of the odds. The real answer here is that it’s closer to a 3-1/3-2 game where the over-under gets hurt by an empty net goal — pushing it to 4-2 or 4-3. Really, it means I’m out on OTT — not splitting the atom there, as most people are — and I’m cautiously okay with using CGY skaters.
PHI/BUF – Another game where the point total is showing more movement in the odds than the actual number, but it’s also quite low with protection — “in case it does go over, we want to charge a premium.” This is interesting, though. With the odds so close, you would think that people want to take the underdog’s puck line. Apparently not. Sure, that’s driven by PHI -1.5 presenting nice odds, both those odds have since dropped. I’m calling this 3-2 in either direction, and I strangely think BUF is the right answer. I don’t like hunches, so the reason for this is simply tight odds in a low-scoring game where the underdog has no reason to not steal a win with those numbers.
CBJ/NSH – Finally, a fairly straightforward read that should simply produce a low-scoring game. It’s not a guarantee — nothing is — mainly because we have seen CBJ reach four goals in 4-of-their-last-10 games, as well as score at least two goals in ten consecutive games until their most recent outing — a shutout. I have to think people are going to pile on with CBJ skaters thinking they must bounce back, but the odds say that they won’t. Not in a big way, anyway. They’re not even favored in the game! I’m calling this 2-1 NSH.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: CGY (maybe)
2-4 Goals: WSH, NJD, BUF, NSH
Want no part of: OTT, PHI, CBJ