In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
BOS/NYR – A low point total has now started to show stronger odds on the under, and it looks like that’s where we have to focus for this game. Therefore, if we couple it with the moneyline and puckline, we see the easy disconnect between what people think and what we should expect. Because almost everyone is looking high-scoring and a blowout, they are probably leaning on BOS in the form of 5-2/4-1 and, essentially, complete domination. The odds don’t necessarily disagree, but I would scale back all offense to where this is 2-1/3-1 instead. I would say the “right” — read, sneaky — play in a Showdown would be to own both goalies, use NYR’s as captain, and split the cheap skaters so your lineup is 3-3.
LAK/MIN – Another low point total, but there is slight movement that suggests it can get over the number. Let’s say it bumped the ceiling up from four goals to six — of course, all ceilings here are soft. Once again, an easy win for the favorite is the general expectation, although there is a decent amount of support for the underdog. This means that we split the difference and say that the favorite should win by exactly one goal. That, with the slightly raised ceiling has me right on a 3-2 win for MIN.
COL/ARI – I guess we will go 3-for-3 in terms of low-scoring expectations, as the point total and odds are screaming for it to stay under 5.5. Here, there is no real debate as to what should happen from the people, where they are all-in with Colorado. I’m curious if this game is one of those surprisingly “off” matchups where nothing goes as planned. I say that because we usually get one every night, and the other two matchups have fairly straightforward reads. This is professional sports, after all, and things rarely go exactly as planned. I’ll say it’s 3-1 ARI in the end.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: MIN, BOS
2-4 Goals: ARI, NYR
Want no part of: COL, LAK