In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
NJD/BUF – I have to love the idea of a low-scoring game, although people are somewhat in agreement — not as much as we will see in a different game. I think the most interesting part here is that NJ continues to grow as the favorite even though they have now failed twice against BUF. That has to be weighing in people’s minds, as the “something has to give” approach is in full swing. I agree, but nothing has actually shown that it will work. If anything, NJ shouldn’t win this game by more than a goal, so I’m setting this at a cap of 3-2 NJ. Really, the answer is probably something like 2-2 that goes to a shootout.
CHI/CBJ – A nice move in the point total that keeps the odds on the lower-scoring side of the scale has me sitting in the 5-6 goal range. The edge here is in the overall expectation by people, where they are hedging on both sides of the coin: a big win by Columbus or an outright upset by Chicago. As always, I’ll swap that and lean on a 3-2 win for Columbus, which also works perfectly with the point total landing on 5 and not 7+.
DAL/FLA – This is somewhat interesting in that people are leaning on the under despite the odds being on the over and the number staying quite low. I think there’s a path for the over to win, but I would argue that it probably has to come from a 4-2 style of game — as opposed to an outright onslaught. The other numbers do not agree, so someone is wrong. People are buying into Dallas to, at least, keep it close, but they are also not against a win. Again, the key is that they think it’s low-scoring, so they probably have the game along the lines of 2-1 DAL. I would think there’s some bias from last night’s 3-0 shutout, but I’m going to say this game is actually closer to 4-3 in the end. That’s big for offensive potential. I’m not sold on the winner, but I’m giving at least two goals to each team and, if pressed for a number, say that it’s 4-2/4-3 Dallas.
CAR/TB – Little data for this game simply has me proceeding with caution, even though there is an avenue for it to clear six goals. Apparently, that happens via Carolina — or so says the people. I don’t like it mainly because I don’t like games without enough information, but I have to give an opinion, so I would say to simply keep an open mind and own a skater here if you have the money. Otherwise, it’s a minefield.
PIT/WSH – Wow, the oddsmakers have the point total basically at its maximum, but the odds are on the under, and they are severe. I can’t imagine that giving such juicy odds on the over will work out for anyone, so this has to stay under the 6.5 goals. That means 4-3 is out of the question. Which one, then, gets the 3-4 goals in a 4-2/3-2 win? People think Washington, and they love the even juicier odds there! I can’t support it. I’ll go 4-2 Penguins and have to own at least one skater from PIT.
CGY/OTT – Quite a flip of the odds in terms of the point total, and I now am thinking we get 5-6 instead of 6-7 with 6 being the obvious, most likely answer. How? Again, people like the underdog. This one is a little weird, though, as the odds for everyone have moved quite a bit. There has to be some underlying injury information that I’m not seeing personally, but it all points to Calgary slowly growing as the answer. I don’t love it, though, and I think this might disappoint to the 3-1 CGY range.
BOS/NYI – My goodness, this is begging for the under to hit. I have to look here for a goalie, but this is no surprise. NYI has been involved in many unders, so far, and why would that change against BOS? I usually argue that people are wrong about the point total, but the odds are too strong to follow that thinking here. It’s a low-scoring game, where BOS in the 3-1 range is expected. I’m flipping that and saying people hit the under, but miss the outcome. 2-1/3-1 NYI.
NSH/DET – Wow, I thought BOS/NYI has us pointing to the under, but this game is even more tempting. Everyone agrees, so let’s set the cap at 5 goals. The edge? Nashville. I’m going all-out with a 3-0 NSH win.
MTL/WPG – We saw this move in a different game earlier in this columns, so let’s set the same expectation of 5-6 goals instead of 6-7. This has ridiculous odds on a close game, but the underdog (WPG) is getting all the love. I have to disagree and argue that MTL was favored from the start and is showing no signs of losing that edge other than people. If they are thinking it’s 4-2 WPG, I’m going with 3-2 MTL. I’ll scale down my expectations, but I do think there’s value to owning someone from MTL.
EDM/VAN – It’s always concerning to me when the last game — and the only truly late game — has a high point total, as I can argue that is the oddsmakers putting protection in place. The reality, though, is that nothing says it will stay on the low-scoring side. Instead, EDM has the odds and no reason to doubt them. There is some potential for a big win, but I think the better answer is that we’re looking at 4-3/4-2 in favor of the Oilers, and that makes their offense a key target.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: PIT, DAL (maybe), EDM
2-4 Goals: CBJ, WSH, CGY, NYI, NSH, MTL, VAN
Want no part of: CHI, OTT, BOS, BUF, NJD, DET, WPG