In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
CAR/TB – The point total is sitting right at 6 with a slight edge on the over, and nothing has budged at any point throughout the day. I do think this is showing signs of being in the 6-7 range as compared to 5-7, but I’m more interested if the puckline or moneyline says anything else. It does, actually, as the favorites (TB) are clearly the play to win. The only question is if we see 4-2 or 4-3, as that would move Carolina’s skaters into play — and knock out the prospect of using Tampa Bay’s goalie. Ultimately, I’ll lean on offense from the Lightning in limited capacity and probably avoid Carolina unless I’m absolutely stuck — or find a ridiculously cheap option.
DAL/FLA – I’m going to say that the early showing of a 6-point over-under means something, although only in the sense that it has since moved down to 5.5. That doesn’t necessarily point to a 3 or 4-goal game, but it definitely caps the upside for me. Personally, I find it semi-surprising that the odds for this game are so tight, but I could simply be wrong in my evaluation of the teams. Most people are actually targeting the underdog (DAL) anyway, but they are also hedging by saying that FLA could pull away. That always leads me to the expectation of one-goal win by the favorite, and that jives with the point total cheating down slightly — the absence of a big win for the favorite likely also brings the absence of a high score. I’m going 3-2 FLA with a decent amount of confidence.
CGY/TOR – I feel like we just saw this odds move in the point total a night or two ago, and it’s incredibly interesting to me. Basically, the odds were on the under with a high number, but then moved down a half-point and flipped the odds to the over. This feels like the oddsmakers protecting themselves in case the game does go over, and I’d have to think, again, it’s 6-7 goals for the whole matchup. The odds and people are all pointing to Toronto, though, although there’s a decent change the game is close. I’m not sure if that’s based on real numbers and expectations or if the bad taste from the Maple Leafs’ recent shutout is turning people away from them. Either way, this is going to be a pivotal read in terms of fantasy lineups. I don’t love the move from the point total, but I have to imagine owning one of the expensive skaters from Toronto is a must. I just wouldn’t go overboard as people will probably lean on the “now they’ll definitely want to win!” belief. Teams usually want to win…
NYR/PHI – The point total sitting as low as it is makes me think there is a better chance of the under than the over, with the odds slightly protective just in case. This sets up for a 3-2 game where only the empty net would push a team to 4. Generally, I’m not eager to own skaters here, although the easy expectation from people is that Philadelphia cruises. If that happens and the game goes over, then it should be 5-2. But alas, we aren’t saying that. We’re saying 3-2 at the most. I’m out on all offense in this game.
MIN/COL – A nice, low point total — especially considering the name value that Colorado brings — has me thinking low-scoring, but we also saw the Avalanche get shutout, and that might be drifting it lower. The odds are building toward the high side, so I’ll say it gets 4-6 goals. How? Not surprisingly, the bulk comes from the Colorado. It’s hard to tell if Minnesota keeps pace though, but I don’t have a strong enough read on them to roll with anyone. I’ll set the expectations around a 3-2 win by the Avalanche.
ANA/ARI – What an aggressive move by the point total to not only start at 5.5 with odds extremely tilted toward the under, but actually move down to 5! I’ll burn with this one and solely lean on a goalie unless there’s a sneaky play for offense. Let’s look. There is. A little, anyway. The home favorite (ARI) sets up for a clear, dominant win, so this might be in the range of 4-0/4-1/3-0 where the Coyotes give three goals to a fantasy lineup. I’m probably going to scale that down just a tad and not stack too recklessly, but I want at least two skaters from Arizona in my lineup.
LAK/STL – Nothing to sway me away from thinking low-scoring is shown here, although there is some lack of data with the game so many hours away. I don’t see the point total increasing anytime soon, though. The odds in favor of the Blues have dropped slightly to where I can see a trap. With that being said, people have also shifted over to the Kings, and I’m honestly not sure what to believe. The Kings have surprised at times, and this feels like it could be one of those setups. I’m leaning more on a 3-1/4-1 win for either team — and, with a Showdown, I’ll probably make one of each type of lineup.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: ARI
2-4 Goals: TB, CAR (not loving the idea of CAR, though), FLA, TOR, COL, STL
Want no part of: DAL, CGY, NYR, PHI, ANA, MIN, LAK