In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
MTL/OTT – The point total sitting right on six, as usual, has me thinking that we land directly on six goals, but the rest of the reads in terms of winner and game outcome are a lot more direct. The odds are insanely in favor of Montreal, although the odds for a blowout are slightly lower than we have seen in other similarly-priced games. I still think we can get a 4-2 MTL win, but I’m a little hesitant. The sneakier play is to ask OTT to deliver two goals (maybe own one skater here?) and not much more. I won’t own MTL goalie.
PIT/WSH – I totally see why the point total is as high as it is — 6.5 — but there’s a weird phenomenon happening with the odds. That is, the odds are on the under and people agree. I’m not entirely sure what to make of it, but it’s hard to think we have an easy route to seven goals. Most likely, it stalls right at 6. I do think we can ask for each team to score two goals, and the general expectation is that it’s close — let’s say people are thinking 3-2. With that said, people are buying Washington, and I don’t have a reason to disagree. Yet. Let me dig deeper because I’d love to be able to land on the right side of this game as I do think we can see it get into the 4-2/5-2 range where one offense is clearly worth stacking. With that, I might roll the dice with Pittsburgh. Why? Only because the odds of a big win by Washington are so juicy that it’s hard for me to believe it happens. Instead, I’ll cautiously lean on Pittsburgh.
CHI/CBJ – Name value here is going to force people to think low-scoring, and I believe that’s why the point total is so low. If that’s the case — that the number is driven by people — then we have some potential offense to the upside. I’d want skaters here and not a goalie, although the odds are not necessarily helping determine a winner. I’d love to say that both teams provide enough offense that I can target either with confidence, but the most logical outcome is CBJ winning 4-2.
BUF/NJD – Another game where it’s difficult to know if the under is so enticing because of the teams or because it’s legitimately going to be low-scoring. Either way, we have a Devils team that arguably outplayed the Sabres a few days ago and are favored again. that’s all I need to know to lean on NJ. I’d also say there’s a decent chance that they pull away and win in the 4-1/5-2 range. I don’t have confidence in that, but there is an avenue for it.
NSH/DET – This will be an easier one to target for low-scoring, as the odds are also in agreement with the people and the low number. It’s probably where most people will go for a goalie, and I can’t argue it. NSH appears to be the relatively easy play, and it would be nice, for once, if they played along — they simply refuse to follow trends. I’d have to think 3-1 NSH is a real possibility, but exercise caution when trusting the Predators.
EDM/VAN – The game is still hours away and there isn’t a lot of data to use, but the high point total without a direction of odds leads me to believe we’ll land in the infamous 5-7 range. I really like that EDM has been favored from the start and held its odds. There’s been some movement in the puckline so it’s not completely clear if EDM cruises or simply wins 4-3. Either way, I’ll ask for 3+ goals from EDM.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: EDM, PIT, NJD
2-4 Goals: CHI, CBJ, MTL, OTT, WSH, NSH
Want no part of: DET, BUF, VAN