In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
CGY/TOR – Oddsmakers are showing no hesitation baiting people into a trap, as the OU has dropped despite showing some tantalizing odds on the over. What does that mean? 1 of 2 things: 1. Protection against the over (by going from an amazing +110 to now -115) or 2. Bait for a trap, where it goes under. I love the idea of this game being capped right at 6 goals, so I’ll say it’s in the 4-6 range. As for the winner/outcome, the odds have shifted toward CGY and a closer game. People agree. They are probably looking somewhere in the 4-3 range, where I’d say it’s more likely to be 3-2. Is that worth fading TOR? I’m not sure, but it’s certainly a possibility. I think I’d more likely fade CGY and says TOR wins 3-1/4-1 where you still have to own some Maple Leaf skaters.
DAL/FLA – Have to think it’s the infamous 5-7 range, but there’s an avenue to this staying closer to 4-6. I love the idea of a close game, and I can essentially rule out a big win for FLA. 3-2 FLA? Maybe. But this feels like a worthy fade of FLA offense. Can’t really tell if DAL is worth owning on offense, but I’m intrigued.
BUF/NYI – Wow, another one of the “if this game goes over, I will weep” variety, where I can’t imagine we see six goals. The expectation is that NYI wins fairly easily, and people agree that it is a low-scoring domination. My guess is that they think 4-1/3-0 when I would set this closer to 2-1/2-0. I’m out on any skater in this game, but will probably own NYI G (although I can see that being popular). Maybe BUF G. Maybe.
TB/CAR – Interesting move of the OU where it shifted from 6 (for all intents and purposes, neutral) to 5.5 (low-scoring). All that tells me is that we shouldn’t expect an outburst of offense, even if it does reach 6 or 7 goals (the maximum, I would say). The odds are split, but people are convinced it’s TB who wins. I’d say they have it set at 4-3/4-2 where, again, I’d push this down to 3-2. Unless there is some standout skater I haven’t seen, I’m probably out of this game for offense.
LAK/STL – Definitely like low-scoring here, even though LAK has randomly decided to play offense, at times (and STL has randomly forgotten how to defend, at times). Still, 4-6 goals is my target, with it possibly even at 3. People are starting to come around to both that and a low-scoring game, and, to my surprise, looking for the Kings to win. Do they have this at 3-2? Seems like it. I’ll flip that and say it’s closer to 3-1 Blues, where, if it can get to 4-1, you have a nice STL stack to target. Then again, maybe it’s not Binnington and maybe someone knows something…
VGK/COL – Lots of pressure for this OU to move up, but the oddsmakers are holding firm for now. I’d say this creeps over, but not by much. 6-7 goals is probably right, but everyone is expecting it to be close. That might lead to both offenses being heavily targeted. As usual, I’d like to pick one (for me, the favorite of COL) to pull away. I’d love for it to be 5-1 COL and I’d stack Avalanche offense.
ANA/ARI – Well… the OU is at 5. Five. The odds, of course, are protecting the over (and that might mean it gets there), but it’s quite amazing to see it there. I’m going to say this lands right on 5 with a goal in either direction (so, 4-6 range). Arizona appears to be the play, and don’t they have to get 2-3 goals in order to win? Compared to overall expectations, that might be the sneaky offense to own, where the Coyotes could win 3-1 and be worth targeting.
MIN/SJ – Super late game, so the numbers could change a lot, but the current read is that it hovers around the 5-7 goal range. The contrarian read? That it isn’t close. I’d say there’s a decent chance MIN pulls away and wins something like 4-1, but I don’t have confidence in that. Because it has a Showdown slate, I’d like to get this right, but I think the play is one lineup of each team winning easily, and that’s all.
Overall Goal Expectations
3+ Goals: COL
2-4 Goals: ARI, TOR, FLA, STL, MIN
Want no part of: BUF, NYI, LAK