It’s always nice to have big weeks throughout the season, but it was a pleasant change-of-pace to avoid the big loss on a consistent basis. We slowly and steadily moved through the year and never really had a massive setback from which we needed to return. In the end, it was another winning season, and I’m proud of it.
If anything, I checked back to how we wrapped up last year, and the final week of the season was a disaster. I’m glad we didn’t have to deal with that again.
At the same time, when I looked into last year’s article, I don’t remember being as excited about those games as I am for this year’s schedule. I’m sure that’s not entirely true — the playoffs always bring about a sense of dramatic fun to a sport we love so dearly — but, as I wrote in my full preseason picks column — which I write at the same time as this one — there are some Wild Card Games that I could see determining the eventual outcome of the whole postseason.
On top of that, we currently have no double-digit spreads throughout the six games of this weekend. In fact, the largest spread is in a matchup that features two divisional teams.
If anything, this sentiment of key matchups could also be driven by their absence over the past few weeks. With so many playoff spots already secured, there were lower stakes for most contests in late-December.
That’s no longer the case. We’re into January, and that means we are into the postseason.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2024 Season: 61-57 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (10-Year Total: 581-504-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2024 Season: 143-128-1 (Last Week: 8-8)
(2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (10-Year Total: 1406-1243-75)
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
The playoffs begin with one of the more intriguing matchups in terms of value. The Houston Texans were the general favorites to win the AFC South by virtue of doing so last year, and they delivered on those expectations. But, as I noted in last week’s column, there was a steep decline in perception surrounding Houston, and it was to the point that the only narratives we heard about it involved which opponents actually wanted to land this matchup. That’s not exactly a great endorsement for the Texans.
On the other side of the equation, I will continue to repeat the same comment: I am simply stunned that people are surprised in any way that head coach Jim Harbough turned the Los Angeles Chargers around so quickly. Although, that level of surprise may have finally worn off, as the Chargers head into Saturday afternoon’s matchup as road favorites.