I’m pretty sure I wrote this exact same introduction last year, but I wish it were Week 2 all the time.
There’s simply no better chance for overreaction to push the numbers in the right direction than what we just saw. But alas, it must come to an end.
The good news, as always, is that there is never a shortage of value. We just need to be a little more careful as we head into the week of reaction to the week of overreaction. Do people start to realign their expectations or hold onto old ones?
Let’s dig into the games and find out.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2024 Season: 8-5 (Last Week: 6-1)
(2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (10-Year Total: 581-504-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2024 Season: 20-11-1 (Last Week: 11-5)
(2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (10-Year Total: 1406-1243-75)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
I’ll start with this: there is no comfortable New York Jets fan right now.
Indeed, the Jets won in Tennessee and, in doing so, moved their record to 1-1. But no fan walked away from that game feeling good about it.
But what about fans of the New England Patriots? The Patriots had a kick blocked late in their home game against the Seahawks and, had that not happened, they might have pulled off the outright ‘upset’ at home. What does that do for the team’s expectations?