I write it every year.
People will argue that the first week of the season is the most difficult to pick against-the-spread. Not true. I love Week 1.
I do not love the last week of the regular season. Ever.
It’s because I always write about how careful we need to be when following the news — either to pick with it or against it.
In a perfect world, we don’t hear anything. We just let our own research drive the decision and simply compare that to the lack of research from the rest of the football-watching world — after all, that’s why so many people rely on the news to give them the information they wouldn’t otherwise find.
There is some slight differences from this season compared to recent years. That is, we are entering season finale with only two playoff spots still up-for-grabs. By comparison, there were four last year — based on what I could find, and believe me, I dug deeply into the last few seasons’ final games to get some sort of baseline for what coaches do in these situations.
That last parenthetical comment is the other key note as we head into the guessing game of Week 18. No matter what we hear from a head coach about the plans for resting or playing starters, be careful how much you trust it. I believe that past history and the results of winning or losing — i.e. getting crushed in the first playoff game after resting starters might mean the same head coach has a change-of-heart — will tell us more than any rumors we hear. And again, some of the value we can find from the news is in the ability to pick against it.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2024 Season: 57-55 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (10-Year Total: 581-504-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2024 Season: 135-120-1 (Last Week: 8-8)
(2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (10-Year Total: 1406-1243-75)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
As always, the final week of the season is going to be filled with what teams “need to happen” for clinching scenarios. But I will immediately warn us to not take that as a sign of what will happen.
If I could copy-and-paste that sentiment through most of the games this week and not look obnoxious doing it, I would.
But of course, the weekend starts with the ideal example of this in action.That is, the Baltimore Ravens, playing at home, simply need to win their game to clinch the AFC North.
And, in an honest moment,