Every year, I write about how much I love the start of a season because we can rely on outdated perceptions allowing us to target the reality of a team’s potential. As the calendar turns, however, we lose that edge.
Sometimes, it comes back.
This is one of those weeks.
Despite a lighter schedule — and the last week of the season with any regular season byes — most of the games have extremely imbalanced perceptions. It was the note I kept writing as I moved from one matchup to the next.
Does this mean we will have a better week than normal? Of course not. If we were able to truly pinpoint those moments, we would only play those weeks and step aside for the majority of the season.
What it does mean, however, is that we should be able to take what people mistakenly expect to be true and not only apply it now, but keep it alive as we move toward the conclusion of the season.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2024 Season: 43-42 (Last Week: 4-3)
(2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (10-Year Total: 581-504-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2024 Season: 103-91-1 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (10-Year Total: 1406-1243-75)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
We have an absolute slugfest between two of the best teams in the NFC on Thursday night when the Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers exactly one week after both franchises played on Thanksgiving — so there’s no difference in rest between them.
Detroit has been extraordinary this year. The team is 11-1 and has the best point differential in the National Football League.
But the Packers are 9-3. If they were to win this game, they would go into the home stretch of the season only chasing the Lions by a single game.
This is where I’m always intrigued as a football fan. All of Detroit’s hard work could be undone in a matter of weeks simply because there’s other good competition in the league.