While we didn’t get back everything from two weeks, we saw a rebound in Week 11. And there’s no real secret as to why that happened — and, in fairness, will happen again.
We lean on the same trends and patterns constantly, and those will produce better results over a long period of time.
There is admittedly a problem, though. This week features numerous games with large spreads, lopsided matchups, and division games. There’s a difficult mix of those aforementioned trends, and it is, once again, a week where we need to exercise some caution.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2024 Season: 35-37 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (10-Year Total: 581-504-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2024 Season: 85-80-1 (Last Week: 8-6)
(2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (10-Year Total: 1406-1243-75)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns had outcomes that were opposite what I personally expected from last week’s matchups, and the two now meet on short rest in a divisional showdown.
I lead by mentioning my own expectations because I always like to check if the read was right and the outcome was simply wrong. I also like to check if what I was targeting seemed wildly different than what others were looking to happen.
Therein lies the initial difficulty in reading this week’s head-to-head matchup. Both teams were playing games with small spreads, and one of the teams won a close game while the other was crushed.
Let’s focus there.