I cracked my knuckles, pulled up an absurd amount of tabs on an already-packed browser, and starting researching.
Looking for numbers, trend, anything that could help.
In the end, I was able to pull together various fragments of information to form one coherent picture.
That picture?
The result of the game.
No, not the actual final score or even the winner.
The important part of the game.
The color of a particular drink. The time it will take to sing a song. And the possible next step in a relationship already tied together by an invisible string.
The big things.
The things that we cannot and, dare I say, will not get right at all.
But the things that are fun to try to get right, regardless.
So, as always, let’s take this article as lightly as possible and have fun with it.
With that being said, we lead with our usual disclaimer. The prop bets below are compiled from different websites, and the opinions given is purely satirical. Do not use this as advice, in any way.
This year, I used multiple sources for the Prop Bets. Here they are: My Bookie, NY Times/The Athletic, FantasyLife, SportsBettingDime, Covers, FanDuel SportsBook, and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Coin Toss – Heads or Tails
I am a man of consistency, and I never change from Heads.
Prediction: Heads
How long will the National Anthem run? Over/Under 120.5 Seconds
After my unwavering support of the ‘under’ basically forever, I have actually put some more analysis into it over the past few years. Last time, I went in the opposite direction because there seemed to be some value with the ‘over.’ This year, I can note that the number is significantly higher — 30 seconds!! — than it was in the last attempt. On top of that, I have found it flat-out more fun to root for this to be stretched out longer via the ‘over.’ That is, however, why the value is almost always with the ‘under.’ Still, I’m going with fun. And the drastic difference from last year.
Prediction: Over
Will Jon Baptiste sing the National Anthem with a piano? Yes (-400) or No (+290)
I’m going to go out on a wild limb here and assume that, because this question even exists, Jon Baptiste must spend most of his time playing piano. On top of that, the odds are quite extreme that it happens. But I’ll admit to being slightly swayed by a single picture of him — actually, I think it’s him, I wouldn’t even know if some random singer were used in his place — standing up with a microphone in his hand. I will also acknowledge that I have seen piano-based singers perform standing up — I’m looking at you, Andrew McMahon, standing on your piano! — but I doubt that’s how this one plays out. I’m taking the chance that Baptiste flies solo for this one and jumping at the juicy number.
Prediction: No
Will any player or coach cry during the National Anthem? Yes (-430) or No (+285)
I’ve been writing this column for many years, and I don’t ever remember this question — maybe it existed and I even wrote about it, but it has escaped my memory. That’s actually the only reason why I’m noting it here. Because it clearly can’t be about the value. If anything, you could throw a dart and hope that no one sheds a tear, but it seems like a given that, if someone is crying, the camera will find them.
Prediction: Yes
How many times with Taylor Swift be shown during the National Anthem? Over/Under 1.5
I might have written this in last year’s column — because it was applicable then, too — but myself and my household are huge supporters of Taylor Swift. I won’t accept any negative comments! Regardless, there will some opportunities to find value with what we — and others — expect to happen surrounding Swift. This is the first one. The irony is that there is also an option where we can pick if she will be shown at all during the National Anthem, but the odds are so close to this one — +110 for ‘No’ — that I’d like the extra wiggle room. More importantly, I do think there’s a chance that it never happens because it would be during another singer’s moment and performance. There’s the obvious connection between the two because of their shared profession, but it might be a little too much of an upstage moment. Either way, this is why I like the additional freedom to not get beat if the production team were to land the camera on her once.
Prediction: Under
Which company’s commercial will be shown first? Doritos or M&M’s
I fondly remember, when I was a wee one, eagerly anticipating the commercials. They were always overblown in one way or another. Over the years — probably with rising costs — they tapered off to the point that companies made a bigger effort to get you to watch the commercials without actually watching the commercials — sending you to their website before the game to see what you could potentially miss. Regardless, those were my first experiences with trying to predict — randomly guess — what we would see first. They were the props before the props. The problem? Commercial-based props were hard to track. There was confusion if the “first commercial” was after the broadcast started or after the National Anthem or after kickoff. Over the last few years, I have noticed myself moving back toward my childhood joys of watching the commercials and genuinely being entertained — let’s pause for a moment to recognize all the hard work that goes into pulling that off on such a big stage! Putting all this together, I greatly appreciate this question asking us to choose between two options where it’s unlikely either one is shown before kickoff. On top of that, Doritos has made such a commitment to delivering year-after-year at the Super Bowl that I need to give them the edge out of respect.
Prediction: Doritos
Will any commercial feature a talking animal?
Let’s keep it going with the commercials! Although, I have to admit, there’s no real analysis here. I couldn’t even find the odds for it. Just that it was a question. But I believe it has only one answer.
Prediction: Yes, this is arguably the biggest stage for talking animal actors and actresses
Will Taylor Swift be shown on television after Travis Kelce’s first reception? Yes (-200) or No (+150)
This is actually one of the more fascinating ones because we can think like a producer, find a reasonable path to both answers, but get extreme value with one of them. For starters, I will repeat what I write every year about the Super Bowl broadcast sticking to the game and its direct storylines during the action as much as possible. With that, I think it will be somewhat careful about when it shows Swift. I already wrote that I don’t think it happens multiple times during the National Anthem, so the question is more about the in-game moment that would send the cameras in her direction. There is another prop option that asks if she will be shown after the Chiefs’ first touchdown, and I think that’s totally plausible because of the likely limited opportunities for such an event — just based on the odds alone, we’re hovering somewhere around three touchdowns for Kansas City if all plays out like the numbers suggest. Compare that to Kelce’s reception total — an over-under of 6.5 according to DraftKings Sportsbook — and there are simply more opportunities — obviously, something could happen where he is held to just one catch — to find time to move away from the field after a catch. In addition, the game will likely still be flowing following a non-touchdown reception where there is a break after a score. Given the excellent odds, I’m willing to take that chance.
Prediction: No
Which song will Kendrick Lamar perform first during the Halftime Show? HUMBLE (+115), Not Like Us (+210), DNA (+210), Squabble Up (+430)
I guess we have to move to the Halftime Show at this point. But I’ll start it off by saying that, once again, I couldn’t name more than one song the performer even sings — and, as of this current moment, even that song escapes me. With that confidence-inspiring opener, let’s move to the actual opener of the set. The one I somewhat remembered. The one that just took home the Grammy Award for Song of the Year. The irony? I don’t really think this happens — it’s probably more likely to be Kendrick Lamar’s finale than opener — but this paragraph flowed too nicely for me to change directions. On top of that, the odds of it being the last song are not nearly as good as they should be given the song’s popularity, so there’s a chance picking Not Like Us as the first song performed is actually a sneaky good play.
Prediction: Not Like Us
How many songs will Kendrick Lamar perform during the Halftime Show? Over/Under 10.5
One would think that, for the amount of years I have been writing this column — and always claiming that I have no success with it — I would go back and look at the results of these crazy props to validate or adjust my approach. One would be wrong. What I did do, however, is look to last year to see the over-under total for the number of songs Usher would perform. It’s actually quite different. Usher’s was set at 8.5, and Lamar’s is sitting two songs higher than that. I’ll go with the increase in the number signaling a long set list.
Prediction: Over
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift on the field after the game? Yes (+500) or No (-950)
There’s just no way. As fun as it sounds and as much as I stuck around to watch last year’s celebration, it just isn’t happening. If we want some real analysis, I will share that Travis Kelce has been a supporter of Taylor Swift and her music since before they started dating. I actually think there’s a better chance he proposes at one of her concerts than his game — that won’t happen either, but if choosing between the two.
Prediction: No
What color will the liquid be that gets dumped on the winning coach? Purple (+225), Yellow/Green/Line (+250), Orange (+400), Blue (+650), Red/Pink (+650), or Clear/Water (+900)
After just writing that I have failed myself in not going back to research prior outcomes, I went back to research prior outcomes. I’m glad I did. Last year, I was borderline horrified to see Purple as the favorite, but it turns out to not only have been correct, but also been the winner two years ago, too. I can’t tell if there’s a direct correlation between the winner of the game and Gatorade color — it’s honestly possible that the Chiefs prefer Purple and have been the winning team for the prior two Super Bowls — but I will never abandon my true love — both in actual flavor and in my ongoing comment that using Red at the end is the only valid choice because of its metaphor to the blood of war. Just know that I am almost certainly wrong here.
Prediction: Red
And now time for some actual picks. These are mainly being listed because I like the odds, even if the picks, themselves, are either contradictory or unlikely to hit. As always, do your research, be careful, and play responsibly.
Saquon Barkley OVER 15 Receiving Yards (+102) – I’ll admit to some recency and personal bias with this one. I have actually made a similar pick to this in each of Saquon Barkley’s last few games but stayed away in the NFC Conference Championship — and I’m glad I did. The reality is that the Philadelphia Eagles do not throw the ball to him, but I don’t know why that is such a consistent trend. Indeed, he had a big drop earlier in the year, but Barkley had been quite good as a receiver in his years with the Giants — and was amazing in his rookie year — but is curiously absent from the receiving game lately. That’s probably because he has been so exceptional running the ball that the Eagles can just hand him the ball instead. That’s why the Super Bowl presents another opportunity to get him past a low barrier of receiving yards. If he is slowed down at all on-the-ground — which is possible since the Kansas City Chiefs ranked seventh-best in the league in yards-per-rush defensively — Philadelphia will not abandon Barkley. He will get touches. All we need is one or two decent ones and he can deliver.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 25 Rushing Yards (+109) – Similarly to the previous pick involving Barkley, I have been targeting — and waiting for — Isiah Pacheco for weeks. There is obviously a possibility that the Kansas City Chiefs now prefer veteran running back Kareem Hill to Pacheco, but we have to consider that Pacheco was hurt for the majority of the regular season and might not have been at 100 percent in the last few games. He has had just ten total carries during this year’s playoff run compared to 81 last year. Obviously, he had more opportunities to run — Kansas City played four postseason games compared to just two so far — but the point is that Pacheco is a key component to the Chiefs’ offense. With two more weeks to prepare, Pacheco should be as ready as ever to make an impact, even if it is small compared to what he has done in the past.
Jalen Hurts OVER 259.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114) – It’s not too outrageous to find a path for this pick to work, but I find it interesting and noteworthy that both quarterbacks — Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes — have over-under totals listed that are significantly higher than their season averages. This suggests that game flow is going to force each one to take on a bigger role than in recent weeks. Hurts’ number is more attainable than Mahomes’ — his is 286.5 — but Hurts averages more than double the amount of rushing-yards-per-game than Mahomes. I have always written that quarterback play is key to winning a Super Bowl, but, even in Hurts’ Super Bowl loss in this same matchup, he combined for 374 passing and rushing yards.
Both Teams Combined OVER 3.5 Total Field Goals (+125) – In moving from the player picks to the team-based ones, I started seeing an interesting trend in how the numbers were presented. Basically, if all of the picks follow their shorter odds, we are looking at a lower-scoring game with a bunch of field goals and the Chiefs winning. Basically, the same exact outcome as last year. One of the reasons for this argument is that the odds point to fewer long ‘home run’ plays. That has been the calling card for the Eagles lately and, with the exception of their outrageous success scoring from the one-yard line, fewer big plays probably hurts Philadelphia more than Kansas City. But, if all signs point to fewer long scores, then I will go back to basically the same pick I have made for a few consecutive years. That is, we should see plenty of field goal opportunities. I’m taking the chance and moving to an alternate number to get better odds, too.
Both Teams Combined UNDER 4.5 Different Players to Score (+110) – Again, the loose game script in terms of what those who make the odds are expecting in terms of scoring is laid out from a handful of other picks, and it simply seems like touchdowns might be at a premium. Therefore, even if we don’t have any repeat scorers, there’s a chance this wins just by the fewer number of touchdowns overall.
Both Teams Combined UNDER 2.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+100) – I am definitely targeting the value in the odds here because I see how easily this pick can lose. Still, there is a chance that a smaller number of total touchdowns scored helps carry this pick, too. It’s not necessary to make a pick because of correlation with another, but there are enough playmakers on these two teams for some touchdowns to also be scored through-the-air.
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 1.5 4th Down Conversions (+100) – I’ll admit that this one feels like a ‘trap,’ showing a nice ‘+100’ just to give us the facade of a nice return. Still, this is where the Eagles shine. Not only in converting 4th downs but simply in attempting to convert them. In the aforementioned world of correlation, this works against my field goal picks, but there’s a narrow band where both can win.