I always write about the football-watching world and how it collectively views a set of games — or, in this case, a single game — because that can serve as a baseline. Heading into the Conference Championships, the general feeling about the pair of games is that any outcome would have been better then a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
The exact matchup we now have for Super Bowl LIX.
That’s disappointing. Not the outcome itself, but that a battle between two of the undeniably best teams in the sport — and one that is trying to stake its claim among the best in history — was considered the worst possible outcome.
We can acknowledge that’s how people might feel. But I refuse to play along. Instead, I want to point to the positives.
We were one of the positives. I have shied away from making too many confidence picks in past postseasons. This year, I had four over the prior three rounds. All four won against the spread. I’m proud of that, and I’m definitely proud that this season was, as a whole, a solid winner.
And then there are the positives from the game, itself. There have been plenty of times where we could argue that a team had a particularly easy path through the playoffs, but these are two of the top seeds in their respective conferences. Even if we include the Chiefs completely ignoring the chance to win in the final week of the regular season, these squads combined for a record of 29-5 in the regular season. Both are in the top-four for points allowed, and they each had winning streaks of at least nine games during the year.
Say what you will about which teams you wanted to see on Super Bowl Sunday. We have the teams we deserve to see.
And we even have a disconnect to target.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2024 Season: 65-57 (Last Week: 1-0)
(2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (10-Year Total: 581-504-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2024 Season: 148-135-1 (Last Week: 1-1)
(2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (10-Year Total: 1406-1243-75)
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
We’ll begin our analysis of the game between these two teams where the introduction ended. That is, the first disconnect to target.
One of the clearest trends in all sports is how people approach trying to find an advantage in a game. Some dig deep into the numbers, but a large portion picks with their hearts instead of heads. In fact, we can see this frequently in college football because fans feel like they are a part of the team if they attended the same school that is playing in a particular game. That level of self-involvement and attachment typically leads to an expectation based on what the person wants to happen.
It’s present in the National Football League, as well, but it really takes form during the playoffs. This is, after all, the time when we narrow down the number of teams competing for a championship. At one point — like right now — we are left with only two options: the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Which means that