NFL Picks: 2024 NFC Full Season Predictions

The return of football is always wonderful because it gives us long-term and short-term targets that will span the next few months but has already started before the first game’s action. It’s the preparation for another year of picks, and it begins by diving into what we should expect to see by the end of the year.

That’s the real value in these season-long prediction articles. They give us the zoomed out view that can — and definitely will — be applied to the tighter, weekly picture.

I often write about how whatever is established here gets used almost immediately in Week 1, but it is worth noting that, despite 17 games being a comparatively small sample size, we should acknowledge that teams and their identities evolve between now and February. This is why I constantly reference the season-long articles every so often in my weekly picks.

It’s also why I spend so much time preparing them.

That, and I truly love the start of each season. This is the time when we can fully separate from the expectations of others, form our own opinions, and act on them.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2024 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesers Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks – 5-12, 4th in NFC West

It has seemed like a possibility that the Seattle Seahawks would implode for quite a long time, and everything points to 2024 being that season. Quarterback Geno Smith has arguably overperformed for the past few seasons, and the team somehow managed a winning record last year despite a minus-38 point differential.

The departure of longtime head coach Pete Carroll does not help stabilize a franchise ready to free-fall. The Seahawks finally collapse.

Arizona Cardinals – 7-10, 3rd in NFC West

I keep seeing reasons why the Arizona Cardinals could improve this year, but it feels more like a function of horrible past seasons than anything else. Should Arizona win more than four games for the first time in three years? It should. But only because it’s difficult to see a franchise combine for twelve total victories over a three-year span.

Something has to give, and there is an obvious sign-of-life via the health of quarterback Kyler Murray. But Murray was still a major question mark in terms of both health and maturity entering each of the last few seasons, and little has changed to completely erase those concerns. The division doesn’t give the Cardinals any help, either, so there’s little to ask of Arizona other than a few more victories this year.

Los Angeles Rams – 8-9, 2nd in NFC West

I couldn’t wait to buy back into the Los Angeles Rams last year, and they delivered a solid ten-win season with a playoff berth. That’s because everything was primed for Los Angeles to capitalize on decreased expectations.

What happens now?

The Rams won the Super Bowl a few years ago by essentially trading their future for the ability to win in the moment. It worked at the time, but we are now seeing the impact of such moves. Los Angeles is an aging team that has been plagued by injuries and has fought an uphill battle in recent years — made even more difficult by the division in which it plays. Perhaps more importantly, the Rams were teetering on the edge of disaster last year with a 3-6 start to the season only to go 7-1 to close out the year. That’s a perfect example of a team being overextended.

Los Angeles had its moment, but it’s about to take a small step back as it continues to pay off its metaphorical mortgage.

San Francisco 49ers – 13-4, NFC West Winner

I absolutely hate taking the easy path, but there’s simply nothing that points to the San Francisco 49ers struggling this year. Could they lose a game or two that knocks them down from the top of their division? Sure. But the reality is that they are one of the best coached and well-built teams in the league.

More importantly, we have seen San Francisco find success with a rotation of players at key positions, further proving that the system is working for the team. That system should lead to another big regular season.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 3-14, 4th in NFC South – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

I vividly remember writing my predictions for last season and stumbling over where to place the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In every way, they were a team likely to crumble. But it just felt like there was a chance they would surprise. And surprise they did. Tampa Bay put together a winning season and actually claimed a division title.

Which means we can now expect the Buccaneers to crumble.

It took a nearly perfect storm for Tampa Bay to find nine wins and a playoff berth, but the likely direction for the team was always ‘down.’ It catches up to them now.

Atlanta Falcons