NFL Picks: 2024 AFC Full Season Predictions

The return of football is always wonderful because it gives us long-term and short-term targets that will span the next few months but has already started before the first game’s action. It’s the preparation for another year of picks, and it begins by diving into what we should expect to see by the end of the year.

That’s the real value in these season-long prediction articles. They give us the zoomed out view that can — and definitely will — be applied to the tighter, weekly picture.

I often write about how whatever is established here gets used almost immediately in Week 1, but it is worth noting that, despite 17 games being a comparatively small sample size, we should acknowledge that teams and their identities evolve between now and February. This is why I constantly reference the season-long articles every so often in my weekly picks.

It’s also why I spend so much time preparing them.

That, and I truly love the start of each season. This is the time when we can fully separate from the expectations of others, form our own opinions, and act on them.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2024 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesers Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders, 6-11, 4th in AFC West

If nothing else, the Las Vegas Raiders might be the most fun team to support this year.

And, if nothing else, that’s the exact reason why we have to lower their metaphorical ceiling.

Antonio Pierce stepped into the head coaching role for the Raiders toward the end of last year and was so impressive that the organization had to give him the permanent position. It’s unbelievably rare to see that happen, but it was inspiring to see that type of reward for an extraordinary performance.

If Pierce were the only storyline at play, I would be a little more aggressive with Las Vegas. But then we have to add in the quarterback, and he always carries attention, good or bad.

Gardner Minshew II won the starting job for the Raiders in the preseason, and he has often been considered by many to be one of the best backups in the league who can step in as a starting role. But, that’s exactly where we always have to come back to earth and remember that, while it is fun to see Minshew play — he really has an outstanding personality that shines during the games — the name of the game is ‘wins,’ and he has a career 15-22 record as a starting quarterback.

I won’t bury the Raiders completely — and I’ll enjoy watching them play — but I simply can’t follow the potential for narratives to lead the way.

Denver Broncos – 8-9, 3rd in AFC West – OVER 5.5 Wins (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Considering how much change there has already been over the last year, it might seem strange to acknowledge that the Denver Broncos were 8-9 and one win away from having a winning record and hitting the ‘over’ on last year’s win total mark. This year, the over-under is much lower, and there appears to be no confidence that the Broncos will compete at all.

Why?

Part of it is the change to a rookie quarterback but, as much as I love Russell Wilson, he simply wasn’t working in Denver. The change to anyone was probably going to be positive just because it gives an opportunity for head coach Sean Payton to mold the offense his way. If anything, rookie Bo Nix looking so good in the preseason should actually have raised the number.

There’s value with the Broncos, this year, and we’ve seen it play out with other teams in similar positions. It’s simply based on a veteran head coach inheriting a team and taking some time to mold the roster accordingly. I’d rather be a year early than a year late, and I’d be willing to target a sneaky good season from Denver, even if it falls short in the end.

Los Angeles Chargers – 11-6, 2nd in AFC West, Wild Card Berth – OVER 8.5 Wins (-128 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

There’s a little exercise I like to do when making picks — whether it’s season-long or weekly predictions. That is, I try to visualize what will happen and how I’ll feel at the end of the prediction when it has been proven true or false. This isn’t for the sake of pride or even getting a sense of emotion around the pick. It’s strictly to ask if I will be surprised by an outcome or find it completely obvious to have happened.

I call this the “Duh” moment.

A good example of this is the Los Angeles Chargers. I look at them, see how immensely talented quarterback Justin Herbert is, recognize that he lost his top receiver, running back, and tight end, but then acknowledge that he added arguably one of the most immediately impactful head coaches, and I try to visualize what I’ll feel about the end of their season.

“Duh.”

It’s usually something a little more eloquent like, “Of course, the Chargers are in the playoffs. I should have seen that coming.”

Well, here we are. Let’s see it. Because the one line about head coach Jim Harbough that I just wrote isn’t about how good or successful he is. It’s about his “immediate impact.” This isn’t a slow burn to success for Los Angeles — at least, not if we’re using his prior stint with the 49ers as an indication. He should step in and change the culture of a Los Angeles franchise that has sputtered for too long.

Kansas City Chiefs – 12-5, AFC West Winner

We learned two major lessons from 2023 regarding the Kansas City Chiefs.

The first is that it is — and always was — foolish to doubt quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He is the best in the league and truly might be the best to have ever played the game when he eventually retires. We are witnessing greatness, and he has the ability to make others around him great. With that, we will proceed by putting the Chiefs back in the playoffs. It’s not a guarantee because this is sports, but it is also not the time to get too cute.

The second takeaway, though, is that even Kansas City was not immune to the drop-off that followed a 14-win season. I had been tracking that statistic for years, and it was always likely that the Chiefs would win roughly three fewer games following their 14-3 campaign in 2022. And what did they do in 2023? The Chiefs won 11 games.

This trend doesn’t really carry weight into 2024, but it is a reminder that any step back that Kansas City took was little more than natural regression. Maybe it it happens again, but let’s not overlook the ceiling for both the regular season and playoffs. It’s uncapped.

AFC South